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Forecasting Follies 2024

The Better Letter

That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. As my friend Morgan Housel has explained , “Every forecast takes a number from today and multiplies it by a story about tomorrow.”

Economy 96
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Transcript: Savita Subramanian

The Big Picture

I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. It’s kind of a silly number, but people are going to think you’re smart or dumb based on that number.

Numbers 143
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Global Leaders Investment Letter: June 2022

Brown Advisory

We remain highly dubious of price-to-earnings ratios as a proxy for value given earnings can be distorted by “creative” accounting and the measure embeds a range of factors into a single number. Today the Global Leaders portfolio cash flow duration in real terms is in the 15 to 17-year range using this calculation.

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Transcript: Dominique Mielle

The Big Picture

She was a partner and a portfolio manager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. But it’s interesting that you really can pinpoint the difference in return because there’s this sort of impatient or overzealousness in trading your portfolio. RITHOLTZ: There’s safety in numbers.

Assets 277
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Transcript: Rick Rieder

The Big Picture

And then in ‘94 and ’98, you know, all had a different stream to 2002. And like I say, that’s part of why it’s translated to a number of people coming to BlackRock and be with me today. RIEDER: So I had known Larry Fink and Rob Caputo, our CEO and president, for a number of years. So yeah, man, that was the idea.

Economy 143
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Finally, a Stock Market Crash!

Mr. Money Mustache

It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). If you retire just BEFORE a big stock market crash, your first few months or years will drain your portfolio a bit more than you expected, until stock prices recover.

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Transcript: Ted Seides

The Big Picture

That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. By the time I got there in ’92, they had a great venture portfolio and almost nobody else even understood what venture capital was. That allows you to do two things.