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Market Grief – What comes after acceptance?

David Nelson

I accept that rising rates means stock valuations have to go lower. this year so at the very least much of the valuation correction is behind us. Growth vs Value October 2002 – December 2007. The bottom occurred in October of 2002 as we were gearing up for the war but even here value outperformed by a wide margin.

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Investment Perspectives | Bubbles II

Brown Advisory

In Engines That Move Markets, a 2002 book about the cycles of technology investing, Alasdair Nairn defines “bubbles” as periods when investors appear to suspend rational valuation, much as they had during the dotcom craze shortly before the book was published. economy following the financial crisis. Possible Signs.

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Tariffs: Bark or Bite?

Brown Advisory

The tariffs announced so far affect a very small slice of the global economy, but we could see an escalation into a broader set of trade barriers between China and the U.S., Or are the steel tariffs of 2002 a better indicator of what we should expect—an orderly, low-impact process resolved by the WTO in fairly short order? From a U.S.

Economy 52
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Tariffs: Bark or Bite?

Brown Advisory

The tariffs announced so far affect a very small slice of the global economy, but we could see an escalation into a broader set of trade barriers between China and the U.S., Or are the steel tariffs of 2002 a better indicator of what we should expect—an orderly, low-impact process resolved by the WTO in fairly short order? From a U.S.

Economy 52
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Finally, a Stock Market Crash!

Mr. Money Mustache

And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon.

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Transcript: Edward Chancellor

The Big Picture

CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. I mean, I cite a description of the failure of the Soviet economy.

Banking 143
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Global Leaders Investment Letter: June 2022

Brown Advisory

The great freeze on free money has arrived with a jolt as inflation cleaves through the global economy. Our standard valuation framework looks out over a 10-year cash flow forecast ending with zero % real growth in the terminal cashflow (technically we use 3% nominal terminal growth). DCFs are very dangerous if not used thoughtfully.