Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

In this guest post, Taylor Schulte, founder of Define Financial, an independent RIA based in San Diego, CA, shares his approach to overcoming these challenges by selecting a client niche and implementing a 3-step sales process. This approach can lead to higher conversion rates while driving substantial revenue growth and profitability.

Financial Planning

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2025

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April Pending home sales decreased 6.3% The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings dove 6.3% Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. "At All four U.S.

Sales

Calculated Risk

MAY 22, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 YoY Excerpt: Sales in April (4.00 below the April 2024 sales rate. This was the 3rd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline in sales. Sales decreased 2.0% Year-to-date, sales are down 2.4%

Sales

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 24, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Excerpt: Sales in December (4.24 above the December 2023 sales rate. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2025

year-over-year The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 29.7% There were more than 1 million homes for sale last week, the highest inventory level since December 2019. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends ViewData for Week Ending May 24, 2025 Active inventory climbed 29.7%

Sales

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings fell 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS. regions, with the South seeing the greatest falloff.

Sales

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3 Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3

Sales

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2025

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. Year-over-year, sales slid 1.2% (down from 4.31 Sales in February (4.26 million in February.

Sales

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $723.9 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail

Calculated Risk

APRIL 23, 2025

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2025

At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for June. . • At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter (advance estimate), and annual update. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.5% annualized in Q2, up from -0.5% The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index. • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement.

Sales

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report , I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR.

Sales

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jumped 6.1% in March Pending home sales increased 6.1% The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings augmented 6.1% Year-over-year, pending transactions lessened by 0.6%. The Northeast PHSI dropped 0.5% from last month to 62.5,

Sales

Calculated Risk

JULY 16, 2025

Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% up from -4.0. •

Retail

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site). March sales were proof that U.S. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for February (red).

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 4, 2025

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 446 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 4.6%.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 16, 2025

Tomorrow's Retail Sales data is capable of causing volatility in either direction, depending on the outcome. 30 year fixed 6.91% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released. 30 year fixed 6.91% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released.

Retail

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 10.1%.

Sales

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April: Tariff-Induced Buying Pumps U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales for Second Month in April (pay site). Tariff-related buying lifted sales over the past two months to a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 17.6 Sales in April (17.27 million SAAR) were down 2.8%

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 3, 2025

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for May: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Growth Slows in May After March-April Tariff Surge (pay site). This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for April (red). Sales in May (15.65 Click on graph for larger image.

Sales

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 24, 2025

At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. •

Sales

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

New home sales were up 2.1% Note: RI is mostly investment in new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement and commissions on existing home sales. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Through November, starts were down 4.3% year-to-date through October. How much will RI change in 2025?

Economics

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2025

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends ViewData for Week Ending March 15, 2025 Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 28.5% above year-ago levels The number of homes for sale has now been higher than the previous year for 71 consecutive weeks. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2025

Other key reports include May Case-Shiller house prices, July ISM manufacturing index and July vehicle sales. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for June. Late: Light vehicle sales for July from the BEA. The consensus is for a 2.5%

Manufacturing

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 16, 2025

8, 2025 Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 27.5% above year-ago levels For the 66th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. We project home sales to increase in 2025 compared with 2024, which notched the lowest existing-home sales since 1996.

Sales

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2024

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. The non-adjusted price in October decreased by 1.9% compared to September, moving the unadjusted average price down 3.7% year over year. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. year-over-year (YoY).

Consulting

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

This graph uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA.

Sales

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). In January, sales in these markets were up 6.4%

Marketing

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2025

This graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau. Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are up 2% year-over-year. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA.

Sales

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 4Q GDP tracker with the October retail sales print and Oct industrial production and Sep business inventories. percent on November 7, up from 2.4 percent on November 5.

Retail

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

All four indices Market Tightness (40), Sales Volume (41), Equity Financing (48) and Debt Financing (32) came in below the breakeven level (50), signaling less favorable conditions this quarter.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

JUNE 24, 2025

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Hold Steady and Foreclosure Sales Rise to Highest Level Since Early 2023 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. Prepayments were up 23.4% emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Sales

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

Here is a table showing the Feds System Open Market Accounts (SOMA) purchases, sales, and maturities (from the Feds quarterly financial statement) As this table shows, even during the period where the Fed has reduced its balance sheet (a period some call quantitative tightening, though that is something of a misnomer), the Fed has been a significant (..)

Sales

Calculated Risk

APRIL 23, 2025

Non-auto consumer spending was lower overall; however, most Districts saw moderate to robust sales of vehicles and of some nondurables, generally attributed to a rush to purchase ahead of tariff-related price increases. Home sales rose somewhat, and many Districts continued to note low inventory levels.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

Since both inventory and sales have fallen significantly, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Marketing