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Global Leaders Strategy Investment Letter: January 2024

Brown Advisory

Even with 75% accuracy we only move from an investable universe where 30% of constituents outperform to now selecting the portfolio from a pool with a 56% win rate. We all know that a 55% hit rate is the top decile across the industry, and the maths above demonstrates why. This is why industry hit rates are so low.

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Transcript: Linda Gibson, CEO PGIM Quantitative Solutions

The Big Picture

She has a really fascinating background, very eclectic, a combination of math and law. She has run a number of firms and a number of divisions at large firms and traced a career arc that’s just very unusual compared to the typical person in finance. It is something, math has always come easy to me since a child.

Math 130
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Sorted Weekly Tweets

Aleph

Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Boldly flying in front of a stained glass window Portfolio Management Sick of the ups and downs of the markets? If you don’t have children while young, odds decrease that you will have children, and a higher number of them.

Math 59
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Transcript: Greg Davis, CIO Vanguard

The Big Picture

And it worked out and had multiple job offers coming out of school from a number of different insurance companies. I had a number of relationships that I built up and had another job lined up in New York City. DAVIS: So when we think about how those teams are evaluated, it’s a three-year number. So how did you perform?

Portfolio 130
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Transcript: Cathy Marcus, PGIM Real Estate

The Big Picture

She has had a number of different positions within PIM, including managing their flagship core real estate fund. Before she moved into management, she has been on all of the big lists. I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. And I was the worst.

Assets 259
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Forecasting Follies 2024

The Better Letter

What someone else is willing to pay for it is based on what they believe – about the past, present, and future. Beyond the present lies imagination. That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. What’s the number of predicted collapses before “imminent” has no meaning?

Economy 96
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Transcript: Cliff Asness

The Big Picture

I was a fixed income portfolio manager and trader, which is a ton of fun. PIMCO out on the West Coast, read the first thing I wrote in the Journal of Portfolio Management. You can use this in a number of ways. And that’s a pretty good number. Program didn’t feel right. I then got just very lucky.

Valuation 164