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Thursday links: dismissing nuance

Abnormal Returns

ritholtz.com) Not every problem can (or should) be solved by math. healthcaredive.com) Medicine Eli Lilly ($LLY) reports positive results for a daily weight loss pill. Decision making Barry Ritholtz, "There is an endless assortment of ways to make mistakes that hurt your portfolio."

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Transcript: Lisa Shalett, CIO Morgan Stanley

The Big Picture

00:31:40 [Speaker Changed] So there’s the emotions and then there’s the math, right? I, you know, I, I do do the math when I, when I do some of my, my chats with the younger folks on the, on the team and I say, okay, real growth inflation term premium, you see this thing, it’s been zero or negative for the last 15 years.

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Bracketology (2025 Edition)

The Better Letter

In 2019, submitting a hastily filled in bracket – and under the influence of cold medicine – Nigl predicted the first 49 games of the tournament correctly (into the Sweet Sixteen) before seeing his streak snapped. Gregg Nigl, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio, has come closest so far to a perfect performance. quintillion.

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Saturday links: clean hands

Abnormal Returns

axios.com) Medicine Immigration policy means the doctor shortage in the U.S. theatlantic.com) The tough math of being a professional tennis player. (semafor.com) Science The race is on to recruit American scientists to countries more favorable to research. nytimes.com) On the downstream impacts of crushing science.

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Strong-Link Problems

The Better Letter

None of us wants to end up on the wrong side of maybe (or, as math geeks would have it, the wrong side of variance). Math works better than intuition because the universe has symmetry and patterns which allow us to explore, describe, understand, and exploit it. Routine medicine is a weak-link problem. Thus, the index mindset.

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Dollars Are For Spending & Investing, Not Saving

The Big Picture

That comp gets deposited directly into my bank account, and that money is available for purchasing necessities (food, housing, clothing, medicine, transportation, etc.) Whether it’s a few decades or a century, the math works the same. I work 40-60 hours a week and get paid for my time and efforts. and paying taxes.

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At The Money: Behavior Beats Intelligence

The Big Picture

Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. I think one analogy here would be think about health and medicine. You have to understand why it’s not just about knowledge, or math or even computer programming, but highly dependent on your behavior.