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Surprise! California’s 40 Qs of Rising Minimum Wage & Fast Food Industry Growth (Beating USA)

The Big Picture

Many fast food workers (specifically) got bumped to $20/hour, from $16, in April (the law is very specific about who is eligible for the increase). Over that decade, with its minimum wage rising, California’s fast food industry has bested the rest of the US by leaps and bounds. Our story began with a Wall St.

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Personal Income increased 0.6% in October; Spending increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent in October.

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Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in February

Calculated Risk

retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $722.7 This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.4% billion, up 0.2

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BEA: Real GDP decreased at 0.3% Annualized Rate in Q1

Calculated Risk

Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5 The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4

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BLS: CPI Decreased 0.1% in March; Core CPI increased 0.1%

Calculated Risk

The food index, in contrast, rose 0.4 percent in March as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 The food index increased 3.0 The index for energy fell 2.4

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.0% The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -1.0% YoY as of March 2025, up from -1.2% YoY in February. YoY in March, unchanged from 0.0%

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BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in April; Core CPI increased 0.2%

Calculated Risk

The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 The food index increased 2.8 percent over the month.