Sat.Dec 10, 2022 - Fri.Dec 16, 2022

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Simplify Decision-Making For Clients By Shifting The Perspective To Their Future Selves

Nerd's Eye View

Change is difficult, and when faced with the prospect of a change, many people opt to stick with the status quo. This is even true in the case of positive changes, such as a new job opportunity or relationship: Even though it might be very likely to make the person’s life better, it represents a departure from life as usual, and there is always the risk that the change won’t work out the way it was expected to.

Clients 246
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2022. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

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The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

Mish Talk

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).

Food 361
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The Inside ETFs Podcast: Nancy Davis on Portfolio Management For 2023

Wealth Management

The portfolio manager for IVOL and BNDD discusses how those funds fit within modern investing portfolios.

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How to Streamline Payment Applications & Lien Waivers Through Innovative Construction Technology

Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant

Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.

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What the Fed Gets Wrong

The Big Picture

There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .

Economics 307
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Housing December 12th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.5% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Active inventory decreased last week. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -13.9K 2021: -11.7K 2020: -12.4K 2019: -12.4K Altos reports inventory is down 2.6% week-over-week and down 7.2% from the peak on October 28th. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

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More Trending

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Office Prices Have Dropped a Bit. But Investors Are Still Interested in Office Assets.

Wealth Management

There’s so much institutional capital in the market, even problematic office assets can find buyers, albeit at a discount, notes CREXi COO.

Assets 317
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Your Co-Investors in BREIT

The Big Picture

In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.

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FOMC Preview: 50bp Hike, Increase "Terminal Rate"

Calculated Risk

Expectations are the FOMC will announce a 50bp rate increase in the federal funds rate at the meeting this week and increase the "terminal rate" to 5-5.25%. From Merrill Lynch: "A relatively soft November inflation report is unlikely to affect the Fed’s decision. It has clearly telegraphed a 50bp hike in December , which would take the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5%.

Banking 271
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Dec 17-18)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that CFP Board is forming a Competency Standards Commission in 2023 to review and evaluate its competency requirements for Education, Examination, Experience, and CE, which represents an opportunity for CFP Board to adjust its requirements, in alignment with the desires of the CFP community itself, to build confidence among the public that those with the CFP m

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You upgrade everything else. Why not your close process?

You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.

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How Academic Majors Can Impact College Acceptance Rates

Wealth Management

Many colleges’ acceptance rates can vary significantly by academic major.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train WFH reads: • Why You Should Enable Apple’s New Security Feature in iOS 16.2 Right Now : Apple just rolled out iOS 16.2, a software update that includes a key new feature called Advanced Data Protection for iCloud. That means you can finally enable end-to-end encryption for your iCloud backups so no one but you—not even Apple—can access your iCloud data. ( New York Times ). • The FUD Behind the Crypto Collapse : Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao were ostensible partn

Economics 270
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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 55% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 16%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Dec 10, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory growth held steady with for-sale homes up 55% above one year ago.

Sales 246
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Surviving the Recession – on newsstands now!

The Reformed Broker

A few weeks back I sat down with Bank of America’s quantitative and equity strategist Savita Subramanian and fellow financial advisor Georgia Lee Hussey to talk about how investors can protect themselves and find opportunity in 2023. There’s definitely a cloud hanging over the year to come – we’ve never seen a steeper or faster rate hiking cycle in the last half century and a lot of trends that mad.

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Your Accounting Expertise Will Only Get You So Far: What Really Matters

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

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Does Private Equity Belong in Defined Contribution Plans?

Wealth Management

Increasingly, dynamic, high-growth companies are staying private, closing off significant options for workplace retirement savers. But putting a traditional PE fund inside a 401(k) plan would bring more problems than it solves.

Planning 305
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Research links: correlation confidence

Abnormal Returns

Quant The CFA Institute has fallen down on the job of advancing industry knowledge. (linkedin.com) A round-up of recent research on valuation including 'Valuation When Disaster Risks Increase at an Increasing Rate.' (capitalspectator.com) Hedging strategies Hedging strategies come in two different flavors: fast and slow. (aqr.com) Can trend following move the needle on a portfolio?

Valuation 246
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AIA: Architecture Billings Index Declines Further in November

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services continues to slow Demand for design services from architecture firms continued to decrease in November, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). The pace of decline during November accelerated from October, posting an Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 46.6 from 47.7 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm bi

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Announcing Expanded IAR CE And Price Updates And The State Of The (Nerd’s Eye View) Blog

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors have had to navigate many challenges in 2022, from an inflationary environment, the likes of which we have not experienced in decades, to weak stock and bond market performance. Here at Kitces.com, we have sought to provide advisors with the insights and education they need to help their clients (and their firms) navigate these uncertain conditions, from blog posts and podcasts on these trending topics to the continued expansion of our Kitces Courses and our popular monthly Of

Education 246
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How To Overcome Change Fatigue In Finance With Neuroscience-Backed Strategies

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

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Three Helpful Ways to Analyze Your Customer’s Journey

Wealth Management

Competition is fierce, so every impression matters.

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Personal finance links: investing accordingly

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talks with Jamie Hopkins of Carson Wealth about some common retirement planning questions. (morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Ben Carlson about questions that spreadsheets can't necessarily answer. (peterlazaroff.com) Dan Kemp and Ollie Smith talk with Joe Wiggins author of the new book "The Intelligent Fund Investor.

Investing 245
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 211,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending December 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000 , a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 230,000 to 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.

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The Price of Food Jumps Again in November, What's in Your Basket?

Mish Talk

Month-over-month CPI food prices from the BLS, chart by Mish. Month-Over-Month Details For November Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: -0.2%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Cereals and Bakery:+1.1%, up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Dairy: +0.7 percent: up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Fruits and Vegetables: up 1.4%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Nonalcoholic Beverages: -0.3%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Other Food at Home: -0.1%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Three Major Food Categories.

Food 244
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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What Clients Need to Know About Whole Life Insurance Dividends

Wealth Management

Dividends from participating whole life policies are dependent on many factors and are not guaranteed.

Insurance 289
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Thursday links: urgent work

Abnormal Returns

Finance Why Robinhood ($HOOD) is offering IRA accounts to its customers. (riabiz.com) HSBC has announced it will stop financing new oil and gas fields. (bbc.com) Elon Elon Musk sold another big batch of Tesla ($TSLA) shares. (wsj.com) While SpaceX shares hold their value. (axios.com) Funds Blackrock's ($BLK) iShares is set to best Vanguard when it comes to 2022 fund flows.

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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November, Another significant step down in sales!

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: First, a few excerpts from the Austin Board of Realtors® November release: For the first time since February 2019, median home prices in the Austin-Round Rock MSA experienced a 0% year over year increase , according to the Austin Board of REALTORS® November 2022 Central Texas Housing Market Report. … housing inventory almost quadrupled to 3.1 months of inventory year over year for

Sales 237
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Eurozone Target2 Economic Imbalances Soar, This Money Can't Be Paid Back

Mish Talk

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. Tatget2 is one of the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone. Primary Creditors and Debtors Target2 surpluses to the tune of €1.23 trillion continue to mount in Germany.

Economics 218
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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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From Mom to CFP to the C-Suite—Finding Your Path

Wealth Management

Lessons learned from a female in finance who figured out how to do it all.

CFP 279
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Nick Maggiulli's favorite investment writing of 2022. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Things that never happened in markets before happen all the time. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The bonds vs. bond fund equation is more complicated than it looks. (morningstar.com) How much wealth does it take to crack the 0.1%? (ritholtz.com) Bond lingo, 101.

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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in November

Calculated Risk

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying. I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through November 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Marketing 237
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The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher for Longer at Least Through 2023

Mish Talk

Dot Plot Interest Rate projections from FOMC, highlights and annotations by Mish. Please consider the FOMC Press Release from December 14. Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Food 205
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The New Way Remote Finance Teams Are Protecting Accuracy And Building Resilience In A Cyber-Threatened World

Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry

Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.