Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 13, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from economist Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 8, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 31% above one year ago.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 10, 2022
Imagine the impact of markets losing a ~quarter of their value in one trading session. That was what happened 35 years ago today: October 13 th , Black Monday a/k/a the 1987 crash. If you are a relatively young investor, you may be unfamiliar with what happened that day or why. The 87 crash impacted many market-related elements. We can trace lots of today’s market structure to that event, and the changes it wrought subsequently.
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Wealth Management
OCTOBER 11, 2022
The new teams come from Private Advisor Group, Raymond James and New York Life subsidiary Eagle Strategies.
The Reformed Broker
OCTOBER 8, 2022
Thanks for checking out piece from last Sunday “You weren’t supposed to see that” – it went crazy viral all over the place. I can’t believe how much feedback came in. Mostly in agreement with my conclusion but not all of it, there were some reasonable counterarguments too. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait.
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Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 14, 2022
On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 percent from September 2021. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, but 8.2 percent above September 2021.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 14, 2022
There’s nothing like confusing market action to send people into narrative creation overdrive. Yesterday’s 2% collapse on hotter-than-expected CPI data, followed by ~5% recovery to finish the day up more than 2% is a perfect example of random market action begetting endless explanations. What was the takeaway from CPI? Check out the BAML chart above: Core goods are coming down ( that’s good!
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Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 14, 2022
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries will be 8.7% for 2023, the largest COLA since 1981. While this will help seniors keep pace with rising prices, it also creates tax planning opportunities for advisors and raises the possibility that the Social Security Trust Fund could be depleted sooner than expected.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 12, 2022
"Purposefully moving" towards a more restrictive policy. From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 20-21, 2022. Excerpt: In their assessment of the effects of policy actions and communications to date, participants concurred that the Committee's actions to raise expeditiously the target range for the federal funds rate demonstrated its resolve to lower inflation to 2 percent and to keep inflation expectations anchored at levels consistent with that longer-run goal.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 9, 2022
It was one of those minor stories that seemed to have taken on a life of its own: The New York Times 1 reported last week about an adjunct Organic Chemistry professor at NYU who was fired after students complained his tests were too hard. I would have missed it, but for J.V Last discussing it at The Bulwark. 2. Both discussions touched on what a gut course org chem is; how many aspiring doctors see their career hopes dashed by the class.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 14, 2022
Social media video and audio marketing is the way to reach next gen investors
Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 12, 2022
Work There is a difference between avoiding failure and achieving success. (bankeronfire.com) Companies are not looking out for your financial needs. (tonyisola.com) Ambition comes with a price. (radreads.co) Investing Under what circumstances should you tweak an off-the-shelf portfolio? (morningstar.com) Don't let a market downturn prevent you from doing things you love.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 10, 2022
Inventory is now above the levels for the same week in 2020 (milestone 3 below). Active inventory increased for the 4th consecutive week, increasing slightly last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining at this time of year ): 2022: +0.1K 2021: -2.2K 2020: -7.7K 2019: -8.4K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 133% since then.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 8, 2022
? ?. Michael Levy is CEO of Crow Holding , a 75-year old real estate investment and development firm. Crow is the largest builder of multi-family apartment buildings in the United States. Previously, he worked in real estate finance and investment management at Morgan Stanley. Levy is currently a member of the Real Estate Roundtable, the Advisory Board at the Institute for Real Estate Operating Companies, and is an Urban Land Institute Foundation governor.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 13, 2022
Advisors looking for someone to take over their practice may find the second—or third—time’s the charm.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 12, 2022
Prospective clients often approach a financial advisor because they have a problem. Perhaps they are approaching retirement and do not know whether their current path is financially sustainable, or maybe they have a complicated equity compensation problem to sort through. But after this initial problem is solved, long-term goals are discussed, and a financial plan is implemented, what comes next?
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 13, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending October 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000 , an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 13, 2022
Boaz Weinstein, Founder & CIO, Saba Capital Management speaks with Barry Ritholtz, Co-Founder & CIO, Ritholtz Wealth Management; Host, Bloomberg’s Masters in Business at Bloomberg Invest. Source: Bloomberg. click for video . The post Saba Capital Management’s Weinstein on Whales, Tails, & Fails appeared first on The Big Picture.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 12, 2022
Harbor Group International’s David Rosenberg sees an investment opportunity thanks to a disconnect that’s developed between REIT equity prices and underlying net asset values.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 11, 2022
Strategy Mark Rzepczynski, "Every good trader thinks about opportunity cost and exit strategies. In fact, quitting is the core skill for protecting principal." (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Jason Zweig, "Try to watch a tree growing, and you see nothing; yet it is growing all the same. It can send out new branches and green foliage for several human lifetimes.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 12, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 7, 2022. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 10, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn : Rapid rate increases provide less time for central bankers to study their economic effects ( Wall Street Journal ). • Eight ways Elon Musk could still get out of buying Twitter : TL; DR they’re all quite stupid ( Financial Times ) see also Twitter investors should be very careful about trusting Elon Musk : And it wasn’t going well for him.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 12, 2022
Arguments begin this week in the high-profile case centered on photos of Prince.
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Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 11, 2022
Welcome back to the 302nd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Libby Greiwe. Libby is the owner of The Efficient Advisor, a financial advisor coaching and consulting business based out of Loveland, Ohio, that’s focused on helping advisors create systems and processes for themselves so that they can run their businesses in less time and with less stress.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 10, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market A brief excerpt: Over the last month … 1. New listings have declined further year-over-year. 2. Mortgage rates have increased further pushing monthly payments up sharply. 3. House prices have started to decline month-over-month (MoM) as measured by the repeat sales indexes.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 14, 2022
Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with David Senra about the Founders Podcast. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Jason Buck talks with Bill Brewster from The Business Brew podcast. (mutinyfund.com) Business Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks product pricing with Madhavan Ramanujam author of "Monetizing Innovation: How Smart Companies Design the Product Around the Price.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 10, 2022
Which U.S. markets added the most self-storage units between 2013 and 2022? We look at the latest stats.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 14, 2022
One of the hottest trends in cars lately is retro-modding. It can go in either direction: Take a modern car and make it look like a retro classic — see the post-2000s Ford Mustang or the new Bronco as examples. But the other way to go is to take an older car and modernize it. Perhaps the most outrageous approach to this is done by Singer — as an example, see this gorgeous baby blue 1989 Porsche 964 Carrera 4 Coupe , that is bid up to $950k.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 13, 2022
With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2023. From Social Security: Social Security Announces 8.7 Percent Benefit Increase for 2023 Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for approximately 70 million Americans will increase 8.7 percent in 2023 , the Social Security Administration announced today.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 12, 2022
Strategy Sometimes your best trade is a loss. (allstarcharts.com) The all-weather portfolio has not fared well in 2022. (blog.validea.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is shifting more production out of China. (9to5mac.com) How Microsoft ($MSFT) could bring VR to the enterprise. (stratechery.com) A Labor Department ruling could make it easier for gig workers to get classified as employees.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 12, 2022
The official Revenue Procedure should come out later this month.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
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