Sat.Feb 22, 2025 - Fri.Feb 28, 2025

article thumbnail

7 Areas Where Probabilities of Errors Are Rising

The Big Picture

Last weeks comments, Tune Out the Noise , was my suggestion that investors should not get drawn into the firehose of noise, partisan wrestling matches, and trolling generated by the new administration. My emphasis was on staying focused on the long term. This includes setting goals, having a financial plan, and acknowledging our collective inability to predict the outcomes of geopolitical events (either domestic or overseas).

article thumbnail

Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries

Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been Big Seller of Treasuries In an interview last week, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that any plans by the Treasury to extend the maturity were a long ways off. One of the reasons cited by Secretary Bessent was the Federal Reserves current balance sheet runoff policy. Here is a quote from Bessent.

Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Graduating Clients The Right Way: A Thoughtful Approach To Sustainably Transition ‘Small’ Clients To On-Demand

Nerd's Eye View

Early in a firm's life cycle, a founder might take on nearly any client (and their fees) just to generate enough revenue to 'keep the lights on'. However, as the firm grows, some of those early clients may no longer be profitable to serve – especially if they generate lower fees than newly onboarded clients. Which leaves the firm founder faced with a difficult decision: Should they continue serving these unprofitable (or less-profitable) clients or 'graduate' them to a different service mo

article thumbnail

Three Things – Is a Recession Coming?

Discipline Funds

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) A Negative GDP NOW Print!?! It was a wild week in the markets, but the biggest news of the week dropped on Friday when the Atlanta Fed revised their GDP Now estimate from +2.3% to -1.5%. Yes, you read that correctly. NEGATIVE 1.5%. That’s a reduction of 3.8%. What in the world just happened?

article thumbnail

8 Ways to Torture Your CFO

The office of the CFO is rapidly evolving, with more and more demands being placed upon the finance and accounting team each year. Join us in this webinar, where we share 8 things to NOT do when it comes to helping the CFO office advance in supporting the business. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how best to support an organization's finance leadership.

article thumbnail

Are Bonds Safe During a Recession or Market Crash?

Darrow Wealth Management

Although past performance is not indicative of future results, history can be a helpful lens to view bond performance during past recessions and bouts of volatility. Swings in the financial markets also highlight the benefitsand limitationsof diversification. During times of economic, financial, and political uncertainty, investors often wonder where to invest or what changes to make to their portfolio.

article thumbnail

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

More Trending

article thumbnail

Transcript: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing

The Big Picture

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

article thumbnail

8 Things to Consider Before Rolling Over Your 401(k)

Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

Photo credit: jb Employers have been giving us lots of opportunities to make this decision of late: when leaving an employer, whether voluntarily or otherwise, we have the opportunity to rollover the qualified retirement plan (QRP) such as a 401(k) from the former employer to either an IRA or a new employer’s QRP. This decision shouldn’t be taken lightly – although it may be the best option for you.

article thumbnail

Housing Starts and Recessions

Calculated Risk

This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: On a 12-month average basis, Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak. . Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts, and the only question is timing. Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.

article thumbnail

Three Things – State of the Markets

Discipline Funds

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The WalMart Warning. Markets fell over -1.5% on Friday as global PMIs disappointed on the downside and WalMart warned about their earnings for the year. How worrisome is this? I think Chris Williams of S&P summed it up best when he said: The upbeat mood seen among US businesses at the start of the year has evaporated, replaced with a darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity and rising prices.

article thumbnail

How to Streamline Payment Applications & Lien Waivers Through Innovative Construction Technology

Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant

Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.

article thumbnail

The Top 10%

A Wealth of Common Sense

The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks in this country. They also own 84% of the private businesses, 44% of real estate and two-thirds of overall wealth. These numbers have all increased since 1989 as well — total wealth (60.8% to 67.3%), stocks (81.7% to 87.2%), private businesses (78.4% to 84.4%) and real estate (38.2% to 43.9%). According to The Wall Street Journal, the top 10% also accounts for 50% of all consumer.

article thumbnail

Wow, have you seen the stock market lately?

Mr. Money Mustache

– And by lately, I mean the past several years or more. The value of the S&P 500 index of stocks, where most of us hopefully have a good chunk of our retirement savings stashed into index funds, is up about fifty seven percent in just the past two years. And it has more than doubled in the past five. S&P returns (including dividends) since 2019, graph by the excellent portfolio visualizer website.

article thumbnail

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low"

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions with the most significant drop in the South while the Northeast saw a modest gain. Year-over-year, contract signings lowered in all four U.S. regions, with the South seeing the greatest falloff.

article thumbnail

The Right Way to Build a Team

Diamond Consultants

Three strategies to create a foundation designed to foster long-term alignment and growthand, ultimately, a legacy. Many advisors recognize the need for an heir-apparent, but what they really want is quality talent without having to give anything upsuch as personal production. There is nothing inherently wrong with running a practice where the senior advisor calls the shots and the junior team members carry out that vision as support staff (not advisors).

article thumbnail

Your Accounting Expertise Will Only Get You So Far: What Really Matters

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

article thumbnail

Investors Made These Costly Mistakes in 2024 – Here is How You Can Avoid Them | Larry Swedroe

Validea

In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can’t be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes. Larry dives deep into the concept of “self-healing mechanisms” in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future

article thumbnail

Market Commentary: Seeing the Big Picture – Stocks Still Making New Highs and Household Balance Sheets Are Healthy

Carson Wealth

Back at New Highs, Now What? What a year it has been already! Worries about tariffs, what President Trump might do next, the Fed, geopolitical drama, inflation, AI, and more have dominated the headlines and caused a good deal of worry for many investors in 2025. Yet, in the face of all of that, the S&P 500 moved back to new all-time highs last week, which has many investors scratching their heads about how this is possible.

article thumbnail

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). December closing prices include some contracts signed in August, so there is a significant lag to this data.

article thumbnail

2025 Q1 Update: Federal Reserve Rates, Inflation and Financial Markets

Your Richest Life

Even though 2025 has only just begun, there are already big changes unfolding that could impact your wallet. Here are some of the main financial headlines so far, and what they might mean for you: Federal Reserve Holds 2025 Rates Steady At the Feds end of January meeting, they opted to keep the federal rates where they are instead of implementing another cut.

article thumbnail

How To Overcome Change Fatigue In Finance With Neuroscience-Backed Strategies

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

article thumbnail

Level Up Your Practice with AI: An Actionable Guide for NAIFA Members

NAIFA Advisor Today

The life insurance and financial services industry is evolving rapidly, and advisors who embrace technology have a competitive edge. Thats why I, Ken Leibow, Founder and CEO of InsurTech Express, have partnered with Nick Bowman, CFP, MS, CEP, Co-founder & Head of Sales at Xcela, to bring you this actionable guide on leveraging AI to enhance your practice.

CFP
article thumbnail

#FASuccess Ep 426: Rolling Out An Equity Compensation Plan To Align The Entire Team On Client Service And Profitable Growth, With Jennifer des Groseilliers

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 426th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jennifer des Groseilliers. Jennifer is the CEO of The Mather Group, an RIA based in Chicago, Illinois, that oversees $15 billion in combined assets under management and advisement for approximately 4,400 client households. What's unique about Jennifer, though, is how her firm has rolled out an equity compensation plan, built around providing grants based on performance and mee

article thumbnail

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were revised up. Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

article thumbnail

The High Cost of Ambiguity: What Financial Advisors Lose Without a Strong Value Proposition

Don Connelly & Associates

In todays hyper-competitive financial advisory landscape, standing out is no longer optionalits imperative. Yet, many advisors unknowingly allow ambiguity to creep into their persona, eroding the trust they worked so hard to build. Without a clear and compelling value proposition, prospective clients struggle to understand what sets an advisor apart, while existing clients may begin to question their loyalty.

article thumbnail

You upgrade everything else. Why not your close process?

You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.

article thumbnail

Smart strategies to efficiently scale your office

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Roy Hall, ADFP, CCFP There are times when hiring and retaining effective back-office staff can be daunting, especially if you’re a financial advisor in an environment with extensive regulatory oversight. This requires staff who are up to date on regulations and who pay attention to crucial details. One solution I learned from an MDRT friend was to outsource to offshore virtual assistants.

article thumbnail

Ten Top Peter Lynch Stocks

Validea

Peter Lynch, who gained fame managing Fidelity’s Magellan Fund, has had his investment approach structured into a systematic model by Validea. This model focuses on identifying companies with growth potential that aren’t overpricedan approach called GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price). At the core of this strategy is the PEG ratio, which compares a company’s P/E ratio to its earnings growth rate.

article thumbnail

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.7% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

article thumbnail

Why Are Higher Egg Price So Painful?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The hottest chart in the markets right now is not Nvidia, Fartcoin or one of the quantum computing stocks…it’s the price of eggs: It looks like a chart of Bitcoin, Gamestop or the hottest AI stock on the street. Since 1947, the price of eggs has grown at an annual rate of 2.4%, more than one percent lower than the overall annual inflation rate of 3.5%.

article thumbnail

2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

article thumbnail

Strategies to Help Finish the Tax Season Strong

Carson Wealth

Like gardening or working out, tax planning is one of those activities where you get out what you put in. Plenty of us have a weight bench gathering dust in the garage that hasnt gotten us into any better shape, or a plot in the backyard that just wont grow anything because we never weed it. Tax planning is similar in the sense that you can put work in on the front end that youll reap benefits from later.

article thumbnail

Ten Top Ranked Twin Momentum Stocks

Validea

The Twin Momentum strategy harnesses the synergistic power of price momentum and strengthening fundamentals to achieve superior market returns. This innovative approach combines traditional price movement analysis with a comprehensive evaluation of improving company fundamentals, creating a robust framework for identifying high-potential stocks. By focusing exclusively on companies that rank in the top quintile for both price momentum and fundamental momentum, this methodology aims to capture on

article thumbnail

FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024

Calculated Risk

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: Full-Year ROA and Net Income Increased in 2024 The banking industry reported full-year net income of $268.2 billion, up $14.1 billion (5.6 percent) from 2023. The aggregate return-on-assets ratio (ROA) increased 3 basis points to 1.12 percent. The increase primarily occurred due to one-time events in 2023 and 2024 that led to lower noninterest expense (down $8.5 billion, or 1.4 percent), higher noninterest income (up $6.0 billion, or 2

article thumbnail

Navigating Your Options as an Eligible Designated Beneficiary with Grayson Blasek and Matthew Schulman, Ep #234

Financial Symmetry

Four categories are recognized under current regulations to qualify as an Eligible Designated Beneficiary (EDB). These include the surviving spouse, minor children of the decedent, a disabled or chronically ill individual as assessed at the time of the decedent’s passing, and other individuals who are no more than ten years younger than the deceased account owner.

article thumbnail

The New Way Remote Finance Teams Are Protecting Accuracy And Building Resilience In A Cyber-Threatened World

Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry

Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.