Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was re

Transportation 363

Transportation Retail Government Numbers 363

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 1, 2022

LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.

364

364

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

After a turbulent decade, the U.S. mall industry seems to have come out of the pandemic in decently good health.

Retail 325

Retail 325

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Case-Shiller home price data via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Home Price Synopsis Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up. Case-Shiller data lags. The latest data is from September and that represents sales primarily made in July and August so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated. Prices are falling now across the board.

Sales 321

Sales Marketing Marketing Economics 321

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Clients

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago.

Sales 363

Sales Marketing Marketing 363

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. This “Process” is not a single event but rather, a series of events the totality of which increasingly weighs the probability towards that positive resolution. I use the word probability because this outcome is not pre-ordained, but rather, subject to future events which have yet to unfold.

Economy 296

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 296

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Monthly average Fed Funds Rate via St. Louis Fed. Chart Notes I use monthly averages because the Fed now targets a range. Also the Fed Funds Target Rate is discontinued and only dates to 1982. This is the steepest, most aggressive hiking cycle ever. You can see the impact especially in mortgage rates and thus housing. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 1975-Present. 30-year fixed mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - One Year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates court

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2022

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 19, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 49% above one year ago.

Sales 361

Sales Marketing Marketing 361

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 2, 2022

It is amazing to think about how Toyota blew its enormous lead in Hybrid tech, failing to launch any substantial push into EVs. The chart below shows exactly how much sales have fallen for the first hybrid EV America has fallen into — and then out of love with. The Prius today badly lags the RAV4, its sister crossover, in Toyota hybrid sales. But the latest design is a handsome reboot, and should help sales pick up.

Engineering 279

Engineering Sales 279

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Are there actions that UHNW business owners can take now while we wait for the resurgence of IPO activity?

Clients 299

Clients Marketing Marketing 299

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

Management

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 27, 2022

Top clicks this week Lessons learned from a young Warren Buffett. (neckar.substack.com) How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. (blairbellecurve.com) There are five levels of wealth. (physicianonfire.com) Five reasons for optimism, including 'expected returns are rising.

Portfolio 269

Portfolio Assets Investing Investments 269

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -4.8K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -9.9K 2020: -15.1K 2019: -18.4K Altos reports inventory is down 0.8% week-over-week and down 2.3% from the peak on October 28th.

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360

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 2, 2022

This was a fun conversation with my buddy Pete about all the media madness these days — it was as I was recovering from C19, and while I felt fine, my voice sounds pretty gravelly. If you find that kind of thing tolerable, people seemed to really like this discussion. Lots more details here. Enjoy! The post November 2022: Stand Up with Pete appeared first on The Big Picture.

Media 279

Media 279

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Second Oakland deal in two weeks is WEG's 13th acquisition this year.

Financial Advisor 290

Financial Advisor 290

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

Numbers

The Chicago Financial Planner

NOVEMBER 27, 2022

One of the best tax deductions for a small business owner is funding a retirement plan. Beyond any tax deduction you are saving for your own retirement. As a fellow small businessperson, I know how hard you work. You deserve a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan for your own retirement who will? Two popular small business retirement plans are the SEP-IRA and Solo 401(k).

Retirement Planning 263

Retirement Planning Retirement Planning Financial Planner 263

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.67% in October from 0.69% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.46% in October 2021. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Portfolio 353

Portfolio 353

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

Last day of the 11th month! Enjoy the end of November with our mid-week morning train reads: • How Much Growth Can You Expect? Imagine I present to you a magical box that can turn your money into more money. The only problem is that you don’t know exactly how much more money you’ll get from this box. You could put $100 into the box and get back $200, $400, or maybe only $150 when all is said and done.

Consulting 279

Consulting Economics Assets Investing 279

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Mercer's latest acquisition adds $5 billion, multigenerational expertise to its platform.

Management 290

Management 290

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

Accounting

The Reformed Broker

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

Let’s assume we’re going to have a recession in 2023. I don’t know if we will, but everyone seems to think so, so let’s just say. So what. What can you do to stop it? Not much. Can you change your own spending and psych yourself up to survive it? Absolutely. Are there changes you could make to a portfolio in order to gird yourself for a worsening economy?

Economy 258

Economy Portfolio 258

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 88 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 980 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Coincident State Indexes for October 2022 snuck out last week right before Thanksgiving. You might have missed it during the holiday week, but it’s worth reviewing. The specifics are noteworthy: -Over the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, making a one-month diffusion index of -4.

Banking 280

Banking Economy 280

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The holidays are not always "happy" for all clients.

Clients 290

Clients 290

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Accounting

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

Image courtesy of StockCharts.Com. The Federal Reserve posts a Transcript of Powell's Speech on Inflation and the Labor Market. Powell put a spotlight on core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, noting that it is stubbornly high despite the Fed's rate hikes. Key Powell Comments (Emphasis Mine) Twelve-month core PCE inflation stands at 5.0 percent in our October estimate, approximately where it stood last December when policy tightening was in its early stages.

Marketing 249

Marketing Marketing Retirement Risk Management 249

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP, the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, October Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE), the November ISM manufacturing index, and November vehicle sales. Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

Manufacturing 313

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 313

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Climate Change from A to Z : The stories we tell ourselves about the future. ( New Yorker ). • A comprehensive guide to how Elon Musk is changing Twitter : Mass layoffs, trolling, and check marks: How Elon Musk is running Twitter. ( Vox ) see also Twitter was special.

Investing 279

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 279

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

More states are legalizing marijuana. But so far, that hasn’t translated into much greater opportunities for real estate investment.

Sales 290

Sales Investing Investments 290

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Sales

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The biz Podcasting ad revenue is expected to rise in 2023. (insideradio.com) Joe Rogan maintained his hold as the No. 1 podcaster on Spotify for 2022. (variety.com) The problem with Spotify ($SPOT) Wrapped. (wired.com) Anderson Cooper is working through his grief on a new podcast 'All There Is With Anderson Cooper.' (nytimes.com) Business Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Margaret O'Mara author of the book "The Code: Silicon Valley and the Remaking of America.

Media 246

Media Investing Investments 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

From Fed Chair Powell: Inflation and the Labor Market. Excerpts: Today I will offer a progress report on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) efforts to restore price stability to the U.S. economy for the benefit of the American people. The report must begin by acknowledging the reality that inflation remains far too high. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is imposing significant hardship, straining budgets and shrinking what paychecks will buy.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Budgeting Food 264

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 1, 2022

As financial planning has evolved over the years, better tools have become available to help advisors maximize their impact with more clients by increasing their efficiency. Financial planning technology, in particular, has allowed advisors to automate time-intensive back-office tasks and delegate routine analyses to support staff, freeing up their time to engage more personally with clients.

Planning 246

Planning Financial Planning Financial Advice Clients 246

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 1, 2022

EP Wealth picks up its second East Coast firm, adding $274M in assets.

Financial Services 289

Financial Services Wealth Advisor Assets 289

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

Management