October, 2022

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Can Anyone Catch Nokia?

The Big Picture

Today’s edition of “ Nobody Knows Anything ” is about a once-dominant mobile phone maker. Exactly 15 years ago, Forbes’s new cover story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted: “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.

Economy 364
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You weren’t supposed to see that

The Reformed Broker

I’m going to tell you a quick story in the order in which it happened. You were there. You will be familiar with the sequence of these events. But you may not have reached the shocking conclusion that I have. At least not yet. Wait for it… Our story begins in 2019… It was the best of times, it was the best of times. The tail end of a decade of uninterrupted asset price appreciation for the top decile of.

Assets 364
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Personal Income increased 0.4% in September; Spending increased 0.6%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).

Food 145
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What a Stock Market Bottom Looks Like

A Wealth of Common Sense

There’s an old saying that they don’t ring a bell for you at the top. I know this to be true because investors spent more than 10 years during the bull market of the 2010s calling everything they saw a top. The regime changes are rarely obvious until after the fact. The same is true when trying to call a bottom during a bear market. They don’t announce these things over a PA for everyone to hear.

Marketing 145
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Was that the Bottom?

The Irrelevant Investor

Stocks got washed out in the third quarter. Whether you were looking at prices or people’s reactions to said prices, it was hard to find anything positive to say other than things are so bad they’re actually good. That might sound silly, but it’s not. It’s the truth. The riskier stocks feel, the less risky they get over time.

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More Trending

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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

At the beginning of each quarter, I prepare a short but in-depth conference call for RWM clients. The team & I put together the most revealing and informative slides. In that half hour, I blow through ~40 slides that capture and explain what is going on. About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This is atypical. The reason we emphasized real estate this Q is that housing is very often where we see FOMC policy having its most immediate effect.

Budgeting 363
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The Investor Opportunity Index hits a two-year high

The Reformed Broker

Every bear market has these two things in common: They end Expected returns go up The first thing is self-explanatory. The second thing should be obvious but from my talks with thousands of investors over the years, I have found that it is most certainly not intuitive to most people. When I tell you that expected returns are rising as stock prices fall, this is an overly simplistic way of saying that investors only get.

Marketing 345
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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 34% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 15, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 34% above one year ago.

Sales 145
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The Worst Kind of Financial Advice

A Wealth of Common Sense

A new research paper from an economist at Yale did a deep dive into 50 of the most popular personal finance books of all-time. If you’re a personal finance nerd like me you should be familiar with the authors — Dave Ramsey, Suze Orman, Robert Kiyosaki, Ramit Sethi, David Bach and the like. The point of the paper was to show how typical personal finance advice differs from academic economic models.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Making Lemonade in the Stock Market

The Irrelevant Investor

For just the third time in a long time, the stock market has declined for three consecutive quarters. Things feel dark out there, and investors are losing hope. But for those of us that are still contributing money to their future, this bear market should not be met with anxiety, but with open arms. If you were contributing $100 every month to SPY, you would have been able to purchase half a share at the beginning of 201.

Marketing 143
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Four Hard Investing Lessons From 2022 With Silver Linings

Validea

By Justin Carbonneau ( @jjcarbonneau ) —. In Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, he introduces Mr. Market, which is an allegory that is meant to help the reader understand the irrational, groupthink and herding mentality that can take place in the stock market. Joel Greenblatt, former hedge fund manager, popular value investor and author described Graham’s Mr.

Investing 128
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AI Steve Jobs interviewed by AI Joe Rogan

The Big Picture

This is pretty mind-blowing: a podcast that is entirely generated by artificial intelligence where Joe Rogan interviews Steve Jobs. One of the most important women in Apple’s history never worked for Apple Margot Comstock took her winnings from a TV game show and bought a computer. It led to a magazine, which turned into a major hub for the nascent community of developers and fans of one of the most important computers in history.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Thanks for checking out piece from last Sunday “You weren’t supposed to see that” – it went crazy viral all over the place. I can’t believe how much feedback came in. Mostly in agreement with my conclusion but not all of it, there were some reasonable counterarguments too. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Housing October 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased, New High for 2022

Calculated Risk

Active inventory increased again, hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining at this time of year ): 2022: +5.0K 2021: -2.4K 2020: -0.9K 2019: -10.9K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 135% since then. Altos reports inventory is up 33.7% year-over-year.

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The Agony & Ecstasy of Stock-Picking

A Wealth of Common Sense

Facebook went public in the spring of 2012. In the year before filing to become a public company, the social network brought in $3.7 billion in revenue. The stock price actually fell 50% from May 2012 through September of that year. From that point on it was one of the best-performing tech stocks in the entire market. From September 2012 through August 2021, Facebook shares were up a cool 2000%.

Marketing 132
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Bad News is Good News

The Irrelevant Investor

One simple way to explain how markets function is rising prices attract buyers, and falling prices attract sellers. They might sound like opposite yet equivalent truths, but they’re not. Fear spreads quicker than greed, which is why bull markets can grind on for years, while bear markets often end quickly and in a panic. The chart below shows what I just described.

Marketing 137
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Multifamily Developers Turn Some Dead Office Space into Apartments

Wealth Management

Office-to-multifamily conversions have ticked up lately. But such redevelopments remain difficult to pull off and represent a small percentage of the apartment pipeline.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Groping for a Bottom

The Big Picture

There’s nothing like confusing market action to send people into narrative creation overdrive. Yesterday’s 2% collapse on hotter-than-expected CPI data, followed by ~5% recovery to finish the day up more than 2% is a perfect example of random market action begetting endless explanations. What was the takeaway from CPI? Check out the BAML chart above: Core goods are coming down ( that’s good!

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Hey guys, didn’t get a chance to do any writing this week but we did two really good shows on the YouTube / podcast front I wanted to make sure you don’t miss… And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 36% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 13%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 22, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 36% above one year ago.

Sales 145
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Everyone Is Predicting a Recession But No One is Acting Like It (Yet)

A Wealth of Common Sense

Whenever the next recession happens, every human being on the planet can take credit for calling it in advance. Everyone and their brother has been predicting an economic slowdown for months now. I guess when the Federal Reserve tells you they are willing to throw the economy into a recession to slow inflation, you should believe them. The weird thing is it would be hard to say we’re in a recession right now.

Economy 129
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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The Down 80 Percent Club

The Irrelevant Investor

The world has turned upside down, or right side up, depending on your perspective. Everything that worked during the pandemic is unraveling on the other side of it. Nose bleed valuations are getting knee clubbed by a combination of high inflation and rising interest rates. These darlings of 2020 are down 80% or more from their all-time high. It’s tempting to try and catch a bottom in exciting names that are down so.

Valuation 135
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Interest in DSTs as a Real Estate Investment Option Continues to Grow

Wealth Management

Once a niche play, DSTs have drawn the interest of institutional-grade sponsors to offer as an option to retail investors managing their real estate plays.

Retail 128
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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

One of the really strange things about watching Federal Reserve policy is the excess of deference that is given to the Fed’s judgment. While the Fed deserves credit for when they get things right – e.g., rescuing the credit system from the great financial crisis (GFC) – they also deserve plenty of blame for the multitude of sins they commit. I am not a Fed hater or part of the crew that wants to “End the Fed.

Economics 333
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Help me feed a few thousand families this Thanksgiving

The Reformed Broker

Here’s the deal – during the pandemic I wanted to do a book signing for the fans when we released How I Invest My Money. Obviously, travel and meet and greets weren’t going to happen, so we had to improvise. Instead, we set up a virtual book signing where you guys mailed me the books along with a check for $20 to Long Island Cares and the Harry Chapin Food Bank.

Food 258
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 31% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from economist Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 8, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 31% above one year ago.

Sales 145
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Bear Market Opportunities For Every Generation of Investors

A Wealth of Common Sense

Bear markets are never any fun to live through but every stock market correction in history has been an opportunity if you’re able to zoom out a little bit. But how you view the short-term risks involved in big market declines should be colored by where you reside in your investor lifecycle. With that in mind, I wrote a new piece at Fortune that looks at the present opportunity set through the lens of each generatio.

Marketing 129
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Stocks Bottom First

The Irrelevant Investor

Today we learned that home prices had their largest drop since 2009. This is just a small preview of what I believe we’ll see in the coming months as the market adjusts to 7% mortgages. In fact, a lot of the economic data will likely worsen. We just heard from the Chief Business Economist at S&P Global opine on the most recent Global Flash US Services PMI report.

Economics 134