April, 2023

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Worry About the Right Things

The Irrelevant Investor

My colleague Nick in Louisiana wrote something excellent that I wanted to share with you. Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. “Do you know the difference between me and you? Me: Happy, happy, happy, dead. You: Worry, worry, worry, dead.” – Catch-22. The last few years reminded us that it’s more important to know how it feels to lose money than to make it.

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What If You Owned No US Stocks?

Meb Faber Research

Stocks for the Long Run is one of my favorite books. If you were to ask me what the single most universally held belief in all of investing is, I’d say it is that “stocks are the best way to build wealth” I don’t disagree. After all the largest fund I manage is a long […] The post What If You Owned No US Stocks? appeared first on Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog.

Investing 145
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What Happens After a Bad Year in the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last year the Nasdaq Composite was down more than 32%. This year the Nasdaq is up nearly 16%. Last year the S&P 500 was down 18%. This year the S&P 500 is up more than 8%. Last year the Nasdaq experienced 46 down days of 2% or worse, including 18 trading days of down 3% or worse. There were also 40 days with positive returns of 2% or better, including 16 daily gains of 3% or more.

Marketing 134
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CPI = 5.0% (Time to Stop Raising Rates)

The Big Picture

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. ( April 2023 ) As much as I want to jump up and down about 0.1% seasonally adjusted (after a 0.4% prior month), the big number is not so big: 5.0% A 5 handle is a huge development, even with the core remaining sligh

Food 350
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Live Demo: How to Achieve Reconciliation Zen

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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It’s not a funnel, it’s a filter.

The Reformed Broker

I get a lot of emails and LinkedIn messages about our “funnel” these days. Hiring funnel, sales funnel, etc. Usually it’s coming from well-meaning companies who are focused on recruiting and headhunting or lead generation and prospecting. A typical firm in our industry is probably in need of what they’re offering. I have tried to build an atypical firm.

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Larry Summers – Get out of U.S. Equities

Advisor Perspectives

“Be careful in the equity markets,” warned Larry Summers. The bond market is predicting a recession but, he said, the equity market has not priced that in.

Marketing 145
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Lucky in Life

The Irrelevant Investor

Luck is an important ingredient in success. I was thinking about this today while listening to Danny Meyer with Tim Ferris. Meyer was talking about all of the different things that had to happen to get him to where he is today. The funny thing about success is you never know which moment in time will shape the rest of your life. People love to talk about their bad luck. “Watch.

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The Problem With Being House Rich

A Wealth of Common Sense

According to the National Association of Realtors, the median price of a house in the United States is worth $190,000 more than it was a decade ago. If you’ve owned a house for more than 3 years or so, you’re likely sitting on some nice gains. Those gains were not evenly distributed but across the various income levels, homeowners have made a good chunk of change: The pandemic-related housing gains are unlike.

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The 60/40 Portfolio is Back! *after not going away

The Big Picture

Check out these recent headlines about the classic 60/40 investment strategy 1 : The 60-40 Investment Strategy Is Back After Tanking Last Year BlackRock Ditches 60/40 Portfolio in New Regime of High Inflation Why a 60/40 Portfolio Is No Longer Good Enough The 60-40 portfolio is back Sorry, but all of these headlines utterly miss the point. No, the 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds is not dead; No, this is not the first time we had a regime of high inflation, transitory or otherwise.

Portfolio 332
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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The ground is quaking

The Reformed Broker

The prompt: The output, copy-pasted into my blog’s CMS: This is a rainbow stripe! Obviously anyone who knows how to code could have knocked this out in a second without even having to think about it. But how many people don’t know how to code? Most? We’re heading into a future in which not knowing how to do a thing is going to matter much less than ever before.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 49% YoY; New Listings Down 5% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Apr 15, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb, with for-sale homes up 49% above one year ago. The number of homeowners shifting home listing timelines around spring holidays helped push active inventory growth up this week.

Numbers 145
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How to Help Financial Advisors Start Social Selling

Wealth Management

Getting advisors on board with building a social media presence will help leverage authenticity, grow thought leadership, ensure compliance and get to know clients on a new level.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Recession Forecasted to Start Mid-2023

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March dropped to 108.4 from February's revised figure of 109.7, marking the 12th consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since November 2020. Today's reading represented a 1.2% month-over-month decline, worse than the forecasted 0.6% decline, and the sharpest drop since April 2020.

Economics 131
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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50 Ways the World is Getting Better

A Wealth of Common Sense

I am a glass-is-half-full kind of person and have been getting a lot of feedback from people of late that the world is only getting worse. Here’s a post from a few years ago that lists the immense progress we’ve seen as a species. * “I am not an optimist. I am a very serious possibilist.” – Hans Rosling You don’t have to look too far to find negativity these days.

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The Tide of Price over Volume

The Big Picture

My fishing pal Sam Rines has spent much of this year pushing a thesis of “ Price over Volume” ; I found it a compelling narrative, one that fits in nicely with an apsect of inflation that I had originally underestimated: “Greedflation.” The Price over Volume thesis is both compelling and underappreciated. I hope you find his take thought provoking… -Barry Price over Volume remains a key theme this earnings season with PG’s earnings report the tip of the iceberg.

Economy 324
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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

I spent the week in Paris with the family and it was really an amazing trip. As you guys know I’m big on history and art and food and stuff so I had been looking forward to it for a long time. And the city did not disappoint. Other than the lack of ice cubes Some shots: The Hall of Mirrors at Versailles, which played host to some amazing moments in the history of the world.

Food 339
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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% YoY; New Listings Down 22% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Sabrina Speianu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Apr 1, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb, but at a lower rate, with for-sale homes up 53% above one year ago. The inventory of for-sale homes rose compared to last year, but at a slower pace than the previous week for a third time in a row as a smaller number of hopeful homebuyers still outnumber new se

Sales 145
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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How to Optimize Your LinkedIn Headline

Indigo Marketing Agency

Your LinkedIn headline is a 120-character “hook” that appears right under your name on your profile and in search results. Similar to a newspaper or magazine headline, yours should be catchy, interesting, and easy to read. Your headline is your opportunity to capture interest and invite users to learn more about you. You may not realize that headlines show up along with your name during an active search, meaning that as I type into the LinkedIn search bar, profiles and their corresponding headli

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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Lowest Level Since May 2020

Advisor Perspectives

The latest manufacturing index came in at -31.3, down 8.1 from last month's -23.2, marking the index's eighth negative reading in a row and its lowest since May 2020. The six-month outlook was up 6.5 points from last month but still remains in negative territory at -1.5. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion.

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How Rich Are the Baby Boomers?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I don’t know if this is my finance brain at work or just hitting middle age but anytime I travel now there invariably comes a point where I pull up home listings in the area on Zillow to get a sense of the local housing market. My family was in Marco Island, FL last week for spring break so of course I had to do some channel checks on housing prices in the area: Two things stand out here: (1) There are tons of list.

Marketing 136
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Help Wanted!

The Big Picture

Nonfarm payrolls came out Friday, and once again they impressed with their underlying strength: 236,000 new workers were added in March, with February NFP revised upward to 326,000, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. But there remains nearly two job opening for each unemployed worker, and despite rising wages, lots of decent positions remain unfilled.

Retail 315
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Revolutionizing Advice – April 19th!

The Reformed Broker

A must-attend event for every RIA owner and practitioner, featuring Michael Kitces, Josh Brown, and Penny Phillips. Register here to secure your spot Michael Kitces is known as every financial advisor’s favorite financial advisor, with Kitces.com serving nearly 3,000 members and his Nerd’s Eye View blog reaching more than 200,000 unique visitors monthly.

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Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 63% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through March 31st. Lumber is currently at $60 per 1000 board feet. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 63% from $1008 a year ago. Prices are below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.

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How Much Can We Take?

The Irrelevant Investor

The economy has been through a lot over the past couple of years. We turned it off and turned it back on again like we were restarting a video game. A combination of fiscal stimulus and supply chain disruptions led to an inflationary spike not seen in over four decades. All the containers stuck in the ports of Los Angeles wreaked havoc on many consumer-facing companies.

Economy 125
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Aswath Damodaran: It’s Time to Retire the ESG Concept

Advisor Perspectives

The fiercest adversary of investing based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) is Aswath Damodaran. ESG is a failure, its advocates are to blame, and the concept should be retired, according to Damodaran.

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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Are You Spending Too Much Money?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I just read Nick’s latest and I’m feeling a bit ashamed. Nick is awesome and Just Keep Buying is my investment motto. I’m 34, my wife is 28 and, not to brag, we make ~$590k a year with a net worth of ~$1.2 million. We max out our 401ks and take the employer match (~$55k / year) and we also save between $20k-$40k, if not more. Our savings rate in my monthly budget is about 24%.

Budgeting 134
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Is 50% the New (Metro) RTO?

The Big Picture

I mentioned a few weeks ago how much better Europe ‘s return to office rate was doing versus ours : 90+% RTO, while the USA is ~60%. I cannot speak to Europe, but that U.S. number is an average across all regions, industries, age groups, etc. In some parts of the country, it is appreciably higher or lower; as you might imagine, it varies greatly.

Numbers 314
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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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