Sun.Jul 09, 2023

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Sunday links: judgment calls

Abnormal Returns

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. (bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Finance Is the worst over for the venture capital market? (axios.com) Some PE firms are looking to decarbonize companies to generate returns. (institutionalinvestor.com) Policy Why migrants are fleeing Florida.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2% YoY; New Listings Down 21% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 1, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2%. As we lap the surge in inventory that occurred in 2022 as higher mortgage rates priced out many home shoppers, the number of homes for sale is not keeping up.

Sales 182
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[cdata[ VA Assumable Mortgages ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ Over the past year several clients have had to sell their homes and buy new ones - but at a significant cost. Mortgage rates have more than tripled, so people in the market for a replacement home may benefit by targeting a VA assumable mortgage: VA loan assumption is not restricted to active-duty members and veterans. Anyone who the lender deems qualified to take on.

Clients 105
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Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk

NOTE: Follow on threads at calculatedriskblog Weekend: • Schedule for Week of July 9, 2023 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $73.51 per barrel and Brent at $78.13 per barrel.

Economics 147
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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When Will Interest Rates Really Start to Matter?

A Wealth of Common Sense

For the longest time pundits predicted interest rates would go higher yet they did nothing but go lower year after year. Then when rates hit 0% it seemed like everyone assumed we would experience lower rates forever…just in time for rates to rise higher than anyone thought was possible in such a short period of time. So it goes when it comes to the markets.

Marketing 104
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up 4.1% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 1 July U.S. hotel performance fell from the previous week, but year-over-year comparisons improved, according to STR‘s latest data through 1 July. 25 June through 1 July 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022): • Occupancy: 69.9% (+4.1%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.27 (+1.5%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.18 (+5.7%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate usin

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Don’t let clients fall victim to opportunity cost vampires

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Matt Pais, MDRT Content Specialist A few years ago, Thomas W. Young, CLU, ChFC , saw a movie that reminded him of a situation he experiences as a financial advisor. In the movie, vampires took over a major city and kidnapped its citizens, continually taking blood from the innocent people to feed themselves. Why does this matter?

Clients 98
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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles Whose life do I admire that is secretly miserable? (By Morgan Housel) Great investors master their funnel (By Frederik Gieschen) This past year, for the first time, I could see the end of the road for Twitter. (By Eugene Wei) CMG didn’t get solidly profitable until they had over 400 restaurants (By Brooklyn Investor) Not only have housing prices avoided a crash thus far, but it’s also possible the mild corre.

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401ks Are A Scam? They're The Worst Scam?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Ok, here we go. So that's quite a bit to chew on even if it isn't a new idea. Is he right? Some, yes. Is he wrong? Some, yes. That makes for a great topic to explore. Generally speaking, pensions are less viable than they used to be, the math doesn't work as well. Problems have been long in the making and seem to have gotten worse. About 40 years ago employers started to pivot away from pensions to 401k, they started to pivot away from defined benefit plans to defined contribution plans.

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Remnants of the Great Resignation Still Challenge the Fed

Advisor Perspectives

The cognoscenti may have been too quick to declare the end of the Great Resignation.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week How major asset classes performed in June 2023. (capitalspectator.com) Why contrarians are usually wrong. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The best investors stay humble. (behavioralvalueinvestor.substack.com) How factors have performed in the first half of 2023. (insights.finominal.com) Six signs to help you avoid 'value traps.' (blog.validea.com) Investment built on forecasts are destined to fail in the long run.

Assets 273
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Case Study: How A Currency Management Strategy Can Work as A Diversifier

Advisor Perspectives

The ARCS strategy is a currency management strategy that gives a diversified exposure to three factors: Carry, Value and Trend.

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Fundamental Analysis of Tata Investment Corporation – Financials & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Tata Investment Corporation: Did you know you can buy almost all Tata Group stocks for Rs 2,500? Don’t you believe us? There is a way. Tata Investment Corporation is a listed investment company of the Tata Group which has investments in various Tata Group and non-Tata Group listed and unlisted companies. In this article, we’ll conduct a fundamental analysis of Tata Investment Corporation and try to know if it can be a good investment pick.

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Don’t Look Back The Next Emerging-Market Decade Will Be Different

Advisor Perspectives

For over a decade, emerging markets (EMs) have been full of promise—and disappointment. Year after year, investors have waited for the powerful growth trends of the past that drove developing markets from Mexico to Malaysia to reassert themselves.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Threads

The Big Picture

Have you signed up yet? We haven’t had this spirit here since 2006, when Facebook opened up to the general public. Or maybe 2010, with the launch of Instagram. Or 2017, with the launch of TikTok. Only this time it’s different, we’re not excited about a new platform because of the possibilities, but because of the hatred of the old platform, Twitter.

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Disappointing Credit Market Returns Add Fuel to Bearish Bets

Advisor Perspectives

Corporate credit has failed to live up to lofty expectations of double-digit returns so far this year, fueling a string of bearish bets into the second half of 2023.

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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • Lessons From the Catastrophic Failure of the Metaverse : Did the “creative class” learn anything from buying into a product that was obviously destined to flop? ( The Nation ) • How China Came to Dominate the World’s Largest Nickel Source for Electric Cars : Chinese firms mastered a process that unlocked Indonesia’s ore for use in making EV batteries. ( Wall Street Journal ) • Those 10,000 5-star reviews

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US Job Growth Cools But Wages Signal Labor Market Still Strong

Advisor Perspectives

US job gains moderated in June while wage growth remained firm, showing a strong enough labor market to keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates this month.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Lithium Leads The Charge (Again): A Look At The Commodity Market In The First Half Of 2023

Advisor Perspectives

The second half of 2023 has officially begun, meaning it’s time for us to reflect on the commodities market so far this year. Lithium increased by 10.81%, making it the best-performing commodity and one of only two that recorded a positive return, the other being gold.

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Muddled Optimism

Advisor Perspectives

One of the hardest parts of economic forecasting is separating what we expect from what we want.

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A Real Estate Recovery Is Just What This Leveraged ETF Needs

Advisor Perspectives

A summer real estate market should help heat up the sector amid relatively high-interest rates. If the real estate market is indeed in recovery mode, that’s just what it needs for bullish momentum.