Thu.Dec 19, 2024

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The Book of Genesis: Wall Street Edition

The Big Picture

I have been playing a lot this year with ChatGBT, and saved some of my favorites. This is one of them: Chapter 1: The Creation of the Market In the beginning, the Trader created the Market and the Economy. The Market was formless and void, and volatility was upon the face of the indices. The Spirit of Investment hovered over the trading floor. And the Trader said, “Let there be Value,” and there was Value.

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Friday: Personal Income & Outlays

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.9% YoY.

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Lessons from European Crypto ETPs for the U.S. ETF Market

Wealth Management

With the advantage of hindsight, the U.S. can leverage Europe's decade-long experience with crypto ETPs to avoid pitfalls and accelerate crypto adoption.

Marketing 300
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021 Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the West. Year-over-year, sales climbed in all four regions. Total existing-home sales completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops improved 4.8% from October to a seasonally adjus

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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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Cerity Partners Bets on Private Markets for Outsized Growth

Wealth Management

The $103 billion firms deputy CIO Tom Cohn discusses Ceritys investment philosophy.

Marketing 289
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, GDP, Existing Home Sales

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week. Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third estimate). The consensus is for real GDP at 2.8% annualized, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.8%.

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More Trending

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Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.1% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024 , according to the "third" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

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The Word on WealthTech for December 2024

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Excerpt: The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawlers estimate ). Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

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Schwab Accuses Former Rep of Leaving with Client Data

Wealth Management

The firm is seeking an injunction in Texas federal court against Roberto Ortega, alleging he accessed client information to solicit them when he left to join a new firm.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Homeownership Isn’t For Everyone

A Wealth of Common Sense

We also hit on questions about the optimal savings rate for retirement, covered call option strategies vs. bonds, how to hedge your real estate portfolio and some investment advice for an 18 year old investor who wants to retire a multi-millionaire. Further Reading: What is the Historical Rate of Return on Housing? 1I suppose you could talk me into the land grab in the 1800s like Tom Cruise in Far & Away.

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The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: An Advisor’s Guide to 2025

Wealth Management

Mindy and Louis Diamonds annual review is designed to provide guidance on the most impactful wealth management industry trends anticipated for 2025, including transitions, deals, compensation, private equity, the wirehouse recruiting race and more.

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NAIFA Member Spotlight: Joe Sparacio: Championing Advocacy and Empowering the Financial Services Industry

NAIFA Advisor Today

Joe Sparacio, CLU, LUTCF, CLF , a 30-year veteran of the financial services industry and loyal member since 1991, stands as a beacon of dedication and leadership. His career, marked by stints at major firms such as Prudential Financial, MassMutual, and now National Life Group, reflects a deep commitment not just to his profession but also to its broader impact.

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2024 RIA M&A Activity Sets Deal Record

Wealth Management

Also, the fourth quarter became the most active quarter in history, with 78 reported deals, according to DeVoe & Company.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Margin Debt Up 9.3% in November; Highest Level Since 2022

Advisor Perspectives

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The latest debt level is at $890.852 billion, the highest level since February 2022. Margin debt is up 9.3% month-over-month (MoM) and up 34.8% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 9.3% MoM and up 31.2% YoY.

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Orion Lands Deal to Acquire Summit Wealth

Wealth Management

As part of the deal, serial entrepreneur Reed Colley will join Orion from Summit as president of its technology unit.

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Walmart’s 78% Surge Leaves Retail Foes Big and Small in Dust

Advisor Perspectives

At a time when the American consumer’s resiliency has been questioned amid signs of a slowing economy, Walmart Inc. has thrived. The world’s largest retailer, famed for its discount prices but increasingly known for its pursuits in advertising and an online marketplace, is headed for its best year since 1998.

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Captrust Adds $1.97B in Double Deal

Wealth Management

Captrust has acquired Virginia-based Campbell Wealth Management and St. Paul, Minn.-based TruNorth Wealth Partners.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.4% in November

Advisor Perspectives

Nominal retail sales in November were up 0.69% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.80% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.37% MoM and up 1.04% YoY.

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2024 RIA M&A Activity Breaks Deal Record

Wealth Management

Also, the fourth quarter became the most active quarter in history, with 78 reported deals, according to DeVoe & Company.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Small Rise in November

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

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Concurrent Snags OneDigital Exec to Lead Retirement Division

Wealth Management

David Montgomery will support Concurrents retirement plan advisors and expand the firms resources in the space.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Did Anything Work On Wednesday?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

First, I wanted to recap how a few pockets we look at regularly here did in Wednesday's carnage. The first group are permanent-ish portfolio funds. I am including HFND here but thought of it after the fact. For what it's worth, Vanguard Balanced Index Fund was down 2.17%. The FIRS number may not be accurate because the last trade was right before the Powell presser.

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Professional Adviser: Consolidate or complement? Five things to consider when evaluating your tech stack

SEI

SEI explains five considerations for consolidating or complementing a firms wealth-tech stack in this article in Professional Adviser. Learn more about SEI.

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Q3 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 3.1%, Above Forecast

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. economy grew above expectations during the third quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in Q3 2024, according to the third estimate. The latest estimate is above the forecasted 2.8% growth and is below the Q2 2024 GDP final estimate of 3.0%.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 23.4% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 23.4% YoY.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Ring Out, Wild Bells

Advisor Perspectives

On Friday December 6th, the U.S. stock market pushed to the most extreme level of valuation in U.S.

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Thursday links: celebrating competition

Abnormal Returns

Markets The stock market couldn't go up forever. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The average stock is down since the election. (sherwood.news) No company can avoid competition indefinitely. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Why do U.S. stocks have a valuation edge over the rest of the world? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Housing The continued rise in home insurance non-renewal rates will throw a wrench into the home market.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production Worse Than Expectations in November

Advisor Perspectives

Industrial production was down 0.1% in November, below economist estimates. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is down 0.9%.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending December 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000 , a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?