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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246
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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession.

Economics 243
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Sunday links: when irrationality takes over

Abnormal Returns

Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. axios.com) Everybody wants simpler taxes, but it never happens. bloomberg.com) Economy Consumer balance sheets are in good shape. tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. axios.com) Private equity return dispersion is a problem.

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Three Things – Exponential AI

Discipline Funds

For example, I am not a tax expert, but I know enough about taxes and how they relate to personal finance that I can quickly resolve almost any tax related issue and answer questions that might have otherwise relied on an expert. The whole economy is going to become increasingly decentralized.

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Tuesday links: a complete transformation

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Venture Tomasz Tunguz, "The bid/ask spread in VC is the difference between the post-money valuation between a VC (the bidder) & a company (seller)." wsj.com) Economy There is a record number of housing units currently under construction. abnormalreturns.com) Adviser links: estate tax intricacies.

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Market Drama

Zoe Financial

despite beating earnings expectations, showing high valuation pressure. Outlook: Economy is in a soft patch, but if policy and geopolitical risks remain stable, markets could digest recent volatility. Economies and markets fluctuate. Nvidia: Fell 8.5% Tariff Concerns: Potential March 4th tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

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Thursday links: the cause of bubbles

Abnormal Returns

(howardlindzon.com) Private assets Why private equity needs much better valuations. axios.com) Funds Tax efficiency is the secret sauce of ETFs. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!