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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246
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Q&A: Your Money Map

The Big Picture

These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments.

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Wednesday links: an errant focus

Abnormal Returns

behaviouralinvestment.com) IPOs Putting a valuation on Instacart ($CART). cnbc.com) Finance The life of a short-seller, even when proven correct, is no easy thing. (ft.com) Writing online Casey Newton, "There are a shocking number of unfilled niches in paid newsletters." Strategy A wide range of outcomes is always on the table.

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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

amycastor.com) Companies It's hard to wrap your head around the numbers with Nvidia's ($NVDA) new chips. marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy.

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Wednesday links: a gambling instinct

Abnormal Returns

tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation. wired.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers show the rollover in housing prices. (cnn.com) Big Tech is set to cut costs (and jobs) in 2023. nytimes.com) How Constellation Software is a $30b+ publicly-traded software holding company employing more than 25,000.

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Tuesday links: a complete transformation

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Venture Tomasz Tunguz, "The bid/ask spread in VC is the difference between the post-money valuation between a VC (the bidder) & a company (seller)." wsj.com) Economy There is a record number of housing units currently under construction. howardlindzon.com) The partisan entrepreneurship gap is time-varying.

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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246