The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].

Government

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

economy is not officially in a recession at this time, many architecture firms are reporting recession-like business conditions. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. Although the U.S. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2025

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the large cohorts in the prime working age. There are still a number of younger Boomers in their early-to-mid 60s. In 2024, the top 6 cohorts were under 45 (the Boomers are fading away), and by 2030 the top 7 cohorts will be under 50.

Economy

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: larrykotlikoff.substack.com) Finance Scott Galloway talks with Barry Ritholtz about his new book "How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth - and How to Avoid Them."

Budgeting

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

Economy

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2025

These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments.

Retirement

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors, said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. emphasis added This was above the consensus forecast of 119,000.

Economy

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 2, 2024

The TSA screened a record number of passengers on Sunday. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. (axios.com) Robinhood ($HOOD) is now taking on Charles Schwab ($SCHW) and Fidelity. barrons.com) Boom! reuters.com) America loves the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.

Communication

Clever Girl Finance

APRIL 22, 2025

But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Lets dive into 15 of the best recession-proof business ideas you can start today, even in a bad economy. This is because consumers become concerned about the economy or have lost their jobs and means of income.

Economy

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. So you got a number of positive supply shocks that are exactly what allowed for the immaculate disinflation, which the people who thought that was impossible use that phrase mockingly. I think number one.

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Construction activity decreased overall, with several Districts indicating that high costs for materials and financing were weighing on growth.

Economics

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful.

Marketing

Abnormal Returns

JULY 21, 2025

finfluential.substack.com) A review of "The Behavioral Portfolio: Managing Portfolios and Investor Behavior in a Complex Economy" by Phillip Toews. thinkadvisor.com) Advisers Ben Carlson, "People skills are more important in wealth management than numbers." (morningstar.com) On the state of the direct indexing space.

Wealth Management

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. But those numbers are backward looking.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

The recently released Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed a record number of participants who intend to cut US exposure, as shown in the chart below. Powell’s prepared remarks started off by saying the economy was/is in good shape, including labor markets and the inflation picture.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 The number of total separations was little changed at 5.3 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 27, 2025

nytimes.com) Survivorship bias affects in any number of ways. theblock.co) Economy Personal income and spending declined in May 2025. fooddive.com) Costco ($COST) is embracing the two-tier economy. Strategy Why you shouldn't fear all-time highs. ritholtz.com) Compounding math is often confounding. marginalrevolution.com)

Math

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. The economy created 139,000 jobs in May (above expectations for a 126,000 increase) and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector.

Economics

Yardley Wealth Management

JULY 9, 2025

We pulled together some information and interesting facts about some of the major indexes that can help you put the numbers you hear in context. 1 Originally composed of 12 companies, the DJIA looked to reflect the major sectors of the late 19th-century American economy. economy at the turn of the last century.

Marketing

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2025

Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. Alright, so, so you go from public finance, how did you evolve towards co-head of innovation economy? So Barry Ritholtz : Let’s talk about your dual role, your, your co-head of innovation economy and your head of specialized industries.

Banking

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JULY 16, 2025

Central banks aim to control inflation to keep economies stable. Interest rates are one of the Fed’s most powerful tools for influencing the pace of the economy. Investors watch GDP growth closely since shrinking numbers can signal recessions, while strong growth may boost corporate profits and stock prices.

Investing

Midstream Marketing

OCTOBER 31, 2024

The Role of Financial Marketing Consultants in Today’s Economy Financial marketing consultants are experts in their field. A strong consultant can help businesses do well and stay on top in this quick-changing economy. Measuring how well your marketing strategies work means looking at important numbers.

Consulting

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. Luxury car sales fell 27%.

Government

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 30, 2025

axios.com) Economy Q1 2025 GDP shrank 0.3%. bonddad.blogspot.com) Q1 numbers don't really capture the impact of tariffs. (nytimes.com) American firms sourcing goods in Vietnam are stuck. wsj.com) A majority of Americans say they Vietnam War was a mistake. calculatedriskblog.com) Real consumption and investment were positive in Q1.

Startup

Discipline Funds

NOVEMBER 20, 2024

I believe this is especially true if you live in a 3rd world economy where the probability of currency collapse is even moderately high. I’ve joked that MSTR has turned into the world’s most successful investment bank except instead of helping finance capital formation they’re just financing number go up.

Insurance

Validea

JANUARY 9, 2025

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging discussion about markets, the economy, and investing.

Investing

The Big Picture

JULY 1, 2025

So it was Pascal then c plus plus, and then I took an economics class and that’s when the lights went off because it was a very mathematical field in many ways, but also with a link to the Rio economy. Very unusual number of years in a row. I had no idea private equity was putting up those sort of numbers back then.

Investing

Your Richest Life

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

Of course, there are other factors contributing to those numbers, and it can be difficult to separate them out. Since 1928, the U.S. stock market has seen slight dips leading up to the presidential election, averaging a loss of 2.31 percent over the past 10 years. Returns trend upward again in November , continuing to rise through January.

Financial Market

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2025

But this is a fun conversation with Pete Dominick discussing the economy, the market and of course, the new book! He is the creator of The Big Picture, often ranked as the number one financial blog to follow by The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others. Yeah, yeah, more of me, I know.

Investing

Trade Brains

JULY 30, 2025

Different from private digital assets, it aims to digitize payments, increase transparency, foster financial inclusion, and work alongside cash, aiming to become a key component of India’s digital economy. Payments can be made through secure QR codes, mobile numbers, or SMS.

Banking

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 12, 2025

ft.com) Economy The January CPI number surprised to the upside. (news.crunchbase.com) The VCs that are betting on older entrepreneurs. wsj.com) Work The LinkedIn acquisition was a boon for Microsoft ($MSFT). sherwood.news) More companies are taking attendance. calculatedriskblog.com) The factors behind the jump in January CPI.

Marketing

The Big Picture

MARCH 1, 2025

Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People : The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation. The ultrarich are growing in numbers, and changing wealth as we know it. ( Imagine if every sentence in a story were expected to contain the same number of alphanumeric characters.

Math

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 6, 2025

Charts #2 and #3: Broad-based Gains Supported by Fundamentals A lot has been written on how the S&P 500 is dominated by a small number of very large technology-oriented companies, sometimes called the Magnificent Seven. The index has indeed grown increasingly concentrated, but returns were much more broad based than just seven names.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

Many noted how the 2022 midterms came in much closer to expectations and that maybe this time so would the presidential election, but this is yet another election involving President Trump that saw his eventual numbers come in better than expected, similar to 2016 and 2020. Productivity is at some of the best levels since the late ‘90s.

Marketing

WiserAdvisor

JUNE 24, 2025

A recession is typically defined as a decline in the market and the economy, and while that sounds serious, and it is, there is no need to panic just yet. Once you have a number, multiply it by six. The red numbers in your portfolio are only losses on paper. Such a mindset can be a real asset when the economy slows down.

Financial Advisor