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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.

Economy 290
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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Construction employment increased slightly, while manufacturing employment was flat. Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth.

Economics 162
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Monday links: changed communication

Abnormal Returns

The TSA screened a record number of passengers on Sunday. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. awealthofcommonsense.com) The November ISM manufacturing index remains weak-ish. reuters.com) America loves the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.

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Wednesday links: the shelf life of a stock

Abnormal Returns

Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. apolloacademy.com) China has a glut of traditional auto manufacturing plants. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. peaked in 2012.

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Monday links: standing pat

Abnormal Returns

cnbc.com) The number of incoming containers from China have plunged. theatlantic.com) Economy Why the Fed is kinda stuck. optimisticallie.com) Regional Fed manufacturing reports have all turned down. thetranscript.substack.com) How to strengthen the economy without protectionism.

Retail 144
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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246
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The Tide of Price over Volume

The Big Picture

And the current S&P Global PMI numbers serve to reinforce the PoV narrative. Manufacturing firms? This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. That was supposed to be a headwind to the US economy and inflationary pressures.

Economy 327