Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investments 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investments 278

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales 165

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 165

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. Luxury car sales fell 27%.

Government 241

Government Advertising Economy Engineering 241

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 24, 2025

drorpoleg.com) Crypto MicroStrategy ($MSTR) has a tax dilemma. ft.com) More tax-free ETF conversions are coming. bigtechnology.com) Economy Sales of existing homes in the US hit their lowest level since 1995. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: basic economics.

Food 144

Food Taxes Media Economy 144

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 1, 2024

reason.com) Taxing unrealized capital gains is a bad idea. paragraph.xyz) Can adjusting the tax code help increase fertility? sherwood.news) Economy Real wages are still rising. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (prospect.org) The math on mass deportation doesn't add up. Just ask Norway.

Math 167

Math Budgeting Food Taxes 167

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 23, 2024

scheplick.com) Business The degenerate economy is booming. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org) Wealth taxes are attractive in theory, impractical in reality. msn.com) Heat is going to increasingly play a role in how the economy works. wapo.st) Economy More companies are now touting price cuts.

Medicine 307

Medicine Financial Advising Economy Media 307

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2024

papers.ssrn.com) Taxes No matter who is President in 2025, taxes will be at the top of the agenda. sherwood.news) Economy The U.S. economy is on shakier ground. ft.com) The labor economy has slowed down to pre-pandemic levels. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 269

Financial Advising Startup Economy Taxes 269

Abnormal Returns

MAY 11, 2025

(cnn.com) Kathryn Anne Edwards, "The federal government is treating those who default on their college loans more harshly than those who cheat on their taxes." (fa-mag.com) marginalrevolution.com) Economy How much economic activity got pulled forward due to tariffs? carsongroup.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Marketing 144

Marketing Marketing Economics Media 144

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Abnormal Returns

MAY 12, 2024

(theatlantic.com) Do data centers really deserve tax breaks? vox.com) Economy Some signs of economic caution. klementoninvesting.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newconsumer.com) Opportunity zones have been a disappointment. It’s my story. It’s your story. bloomberg.com) Crime The U.S.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Economy Economics Media 273

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

(fastcompany.com) Venture capital Why VC-backed startups focused on the 'creator economy' have disappointed. nytimes.com) China is facing a lost economic decade. nytimes.com) IRS There is no shortage of wealthy people with back taxes owed. theconversation.com) Researched show stepped up tax audits more than pay for themselves.

Startup 273

Startup Financial Advising Economy Taxes 273

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2023

They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. economy, but American society as a whole. We discuss the Carried Interest tax loophole, a tax dodge that benefits a few 1000 people in the country but cost U.S.

Taxes 324

Taxes Retail Economy Economics 324

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2024

disciplinefunds.com) Vanguard is launching two new active ETFs, the Vanguard Core Tax-Exempt Bond ETF ($VCRM) and Vanguard Short Duration Tax-Exempt Bond ETF ($VSDM). thesling.org) Economy Sam Ro, "In other words, the American consumer isn’t spending as recklessly as they used to. (sherwood.news) The Ozempic shortage is over.

Financial Advising 272

Financial Advising Taxes Media Government 272

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 24, 2023

citywire.com) Economy Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims.' econbrowser.com) Falling response rates are putting economic data quality at-risk. bloomberg.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: tax fairness. calculatedriskblog.com) Where do year-ahead inflation expectations sit?

Financial Advising 258

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 258

Abnormal Returns

MAY 26, 2024

downtownjoshbrown.com) Strategy The economy is not the stock market, and vice versa. washingtonmonthly.com) Tax enforcement pays for itself. slowboring.com) Economy Air travel is now well above pre-pandemic levels. calculatedriskblog.com) The economy isn't in recession, but it isn't perfect.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economy Education Media 262

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

(crr.bc.edu) We are going to need a replacement for the gasoline tax. nytimes.com) How expanded child tax credits were used. vox.com) Economy Will interest rates eventually slow the U.S. vox.com) Economy Will interest rates eventually slow the U.S. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Economy Taxes Media 246

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 1, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) Higher interest rates mean higher taxes. theatlantic.com) Policy Per the IRS, nearly 1,000 tax filers who earn more than $1 million per year have still not filed federal tax returns for at least one year from 2017 to 2020. economist.com) Economy Q3 GDP tracking around 3%. Then why is it at risk?

Financial Advising 294

Financial Advising Taxes Media Government 294

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 21, 2024

philbak.substack.com) Taxes How much do higher taxes prompt millionaires to relocate? theatlantic.com) Is there a better way to maximize charitable giving instead of a tax deduction? vox.com) Trying to tax all families equitably is a dilemma. npr.org) Economy Why wealth inequality is growing.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Taxes Communication Manufacturing 274

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

Understanding Tax Compliance and Risk Management Ultra-high-net-worth individuals face unique tax challenges, including high rates and ever-changing complex tax codes. If managed improperly or inefficiently, tax issues could significantly erode your familys wealth and even lead to legal complications.

Risk Management 52

Risk Management Compliance Taxes Management 52

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 22, 2023

(thestreet.com) Ark Invest's ETFs have built up plenty of tax losses to carry forward. arstechnica.com) Economy Another chart crime debunked. arstechnica.com) Economy Another chart crime debunked. ritholtz.com) The apartment economy continues to loosen. ft.com) How has the first wave of semi-transparent active ETFs done?

Financial Advising 269

Financial Advising Media Economy Taxes 269

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 9, 2024

wsj.com) Policy What happens if the 2017 tax cuts lapse. wsj.com) Investing in ports has positive spillover economic effects. papers.ssrn.com) Economy Signs that the bottom 50% of the income spectrum have done well post-pandemic. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Budgeting Economics Media 273

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

cbsnews.com) Economy Is crude oil losing its salience as an economic indicator? awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. bonddad.blogspot.com) What does the Taylor Swift ticket situation tell us about the economy?

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2023

economy—Treasury securities are the world’s “safe” asset and the dollar is the world’s main reserve currency. A debt default would also adversely affect the economy through its direct effects on aggregate income flows and government operations if the impasse in raising the debt limit lasted for several weeks. Failure to raise the U.S.

Government 353

Government Assets Economy Financial Market 353

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

nytimes.com) Taxes Tax filing companies are lining up against the IRS offering a free filing option. npr.org) Why the IRS is scrutinizing new claims for the employee tax retention credit. washingtonpost.com) Economy American consumer behavior is normalizing. noahpinion.blog) The NBA is a model for immigration policy.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 242

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2024

axios.com) Everybody wants simpler taxes, but it never happens. bloomberg.com) Economy Consumer balance sheets are in good shape. bonddad.blogspot.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (axios.com) Private equity return dispersion is a problem. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) How search funds work.

Financial Advising 282

Financial Advising Commission Valuation Consulting 282

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 29, 2023

(noahpinion.blog) Why international tax evasion has fallen. npr.org) Economy The Fed is on the verge of breaking something. npr.org) Economy The Fed is on the verge of breaking something. disciplinefunds.com) Some cracks are showing in the consumer economy. bloomberg.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Retirement Budgeting Economy 259

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

A 30-year-fixed mortgage with 5% down (including principal, interest, taxes, insurance and maintenance) on such a home cost $3,058 a month, while the median monthly rent on such a single-family house was $2,170, based on John Burns research.". Existing Home Sales long-term chart courtesy of Trading Economics. Not a Crash?!

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

That will cause a drop in property taxes and strain city budgets. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research ). • But we first need to understand, as well as catalogue, what is causing the current economic carnage. ( The Political Economy Blog ). New York Times ).

Commission 308

Commission Budgeting Economics Retail 308

Zoe Financial

APRIL 7, 2025

Tariffs impact: Proposed increases could raise the effective tax rate on U.S. Consider speaking with a financial advisor about risk tolerance and strategies like tax loss harvesting. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. imports from 2.3%

Marketing 81

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Financial Advisor 81

Abnormal Returns

JULY 23, 2023

npr.org) Social Security Raise Social Security taxes now before it becomes too painful. anneapplebaum.com) Economy Why haven't higher interest rates wrecked the economy already? awealthofcommonsense.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. wired.com) Why Egyptian men are fleeing to Europe.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Insurance Economy Retail 246

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

Nothing in these materials is intended to serve as personalized tax and/or investment advice since the availability and effectiveness of any strategy is dependent upon your individual facts and circumstances. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Taxes 98

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 18, 2023

(msn.com) Cutting IRS funding reliably reduces overall tax revenue. papers.ssrn.com) Economy The world is the most equal it has been in a century. foreignaffairs.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. washingtonpost.com) Should parental leave be split down the middle? msn.com) How the GOP and big business broke up.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Government Economy 246