Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

forbes.com) Economy Danny Crichton talks with Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber authors of the new book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. joincolossus.com) Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks biotech investing with Tal Zaks who is a Partner at OrbiMed.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

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Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

Note: The second graph - residential investment as a percent of GDP - is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession. percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.

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Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

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The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. Some damage gets done to the US economy and trade relations. We have sticky, stubborn stagflation, a very unpleasant economic scenario.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2025

But this is a fun conversation with Pete Dominick discussing the economy, the market and of course, the new book! He is the author of the Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Wiley, 2009). on How Not to Invest appeared first on The Big Picture. The post Stand Up with Pete!

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Abnormal Returns

MAY 22, 2025

novelinvestor.com) What to invest in when everything looks unattractive? theatlantic.com) Economy Still no pick up in weekly initial unemployment claims. (axios.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Steven Englander about why yields are rising around the world. spyglass.org) Why OpenAI bought io Products.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing , is below. Charlie Ellis is just a legend in the world of investing. He was chairman of the Yale’s Endowment Investment Committee and his, not only did he write 21 books, his new book, rethinking Investing, is just a delightful snack.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. I prefer single family starts to total starts).

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Residential investment has also peaked.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

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Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

awealthofcommonsense.com) Books "Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meetings" by Alex Morris is a good refresher course. jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. wsj.com) AI Alibaba ($BABA) has pivoted to AI.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

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Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

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The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2025

I chatted with Jean Chatzky of Your Money Map about HNTI and some general investing concepts. Many, if not most, investing books aim to teach people how TO invest. Your focus is giving readers advice on how NOT to invest. The book is broken down into four categories of things not to do when youre investing.

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Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2023

whitecoatinvestor.com) A Q&A with William Bernstein author of "The Four Pillars of Investing." wsj.com) Don't confuse collectibles with investments. map.simonsarris.com) Economy The July NFP report showed a 187k jump in jobs and a 3.5% bonddad.blogspot.com) The American economy is normalizing. unemployment rate.

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Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier." techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free.

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Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies.

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Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. 7) Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022?

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Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. economy is not officially in a recession at this time, many architecture firms are reporting recession-like business conditions. for the month. Although the U.S. Click on graph for larger image.

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Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2023

Note: The first two graphs - Investment Contributions and Residential Investment as a percent of GDP - are useful in predicting Fed induced recessions. percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 26.7%

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Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

wsj.com) Why Germany's economic growth is slowing, relative to the rest of Europe. financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates. axios.com) How higher interest rates are going to affect the economy. financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates.

Investing 245

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

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Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. Congrats again to the Dow on an amazing run and to all the investors over the years who have benefited by sticking to their investment plans. That’s why the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

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Clever Girl Finance

APRIL 22, 2025

Recession-proof businesses are more than just smart, they’re essential when economic uncertainty hits. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Thats where recession-resistant businesses come in.

Economy 68

Economy Food Healthcare Economics 68

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment).

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Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy No one is immune from investment FOMO. ft.com) BlackRock ($BLK) reportedly has a deal to buy HPS Investment Partners, a private credit manager. nytimes.com) Economy The Russian Ruble is tumbling in value. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims.

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Media Retail Economy Economics 159

The Big Picture

APRIL 5, 2024

He heads Evercore ISI’s economic research team. During his career, Hyman has been ranked as #1 in economics an unprecedented 43 consecutive times by Institutional Investor’s poll of investors. Ed Hyman’s favorite books The post MiB: Ed Hyman on Using Economic Data Opportunistically appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 10, 2025

(decrypt.co) Finance What David Einhorn thinks about the state of active investing. cnbc.com) Global Trudeau's economic record in Canada is disappointing. russell-clark.com) Economy The December NFP reported showed strong growth and a 4.1% economy continues to slow. sherwood.news) RIP Venu Sports: 2024-2025.

Economy 159

Economy Media Economics Sales 159

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

calculatedrisk.substack.com) Economy What the Sahm Indicator is saying about a recession. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) An economic soft landing is not off the table. (protocol.com) Housing Redfin ($RDFN) is laying off 13% of its workforce and is getting out of the home flipping business.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Financial Advising Advertising 246

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 23, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) Successful investing requires getting your time horizon correct. scheplick.com) Business The degenerate economy is booming. msn.com) Heat is going to increasingly play a role in how the economy works. wapo.st) Economy More companies are now touting price cuts. Good luck trying to time it.

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Medicine Financial Advising Economy Media 309

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 6, 2024

humbledollar.com) Don't make your investing more complicated than it needs to be. flyoverstocks.com) Investing doesn't need to be flashy to succeed. eig.org) Immigration affects the economy in a lot of different ways. thecausalfallacy.com) Economy The labor economy is still on track. economy at present.

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12.

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Abnormal Returns

JUNE 17, 2025

morningstar.com) History only tells us so much about investment returns. papers.ssrn.com) Economy National home builder confidence fell to one of its lowest levels since 2012. calculatedriskblog.com) Tariff front running is washing out of the economic numbers. Strategy You can't eliminate the noise, but you can manage around it.

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