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Rather than engage in futility, let’s look at the coincident indexes in all 50 states over the past 3 months, via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (October 2023). Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag).
The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Melissa Smith, co-Head of Commercial Banking at JPMorgan , is below. Melissa Smith is co-head of commercial banking for JP Morgan. Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. Barry Ritholtz : This week on the podcast I have yet another extra special guest.
It is especially true for strategists and forecasters at large brokers and banks. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., So as strategists at Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.,
sherwood.news) Finance Daniel Davies, "The essence of managing an investment banking franchise is that the biggest driver of success is the capacity to bear pain." propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening. wsj.com) AI Alibaba ($BABA) has pivoted to AI.
We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocksa difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks. Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s.
on.ft.com) Big banks are going to struggle making up the revenue lost to private lenders. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. (msn.com) Silk Road Bitcoin are in motion. coindesk.com) Crypto is a 24/7/365 enterprise. bloomberg.com) Finance Why ServiceTitan has to go public.
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The only chart you need to concern yourself with now if you’re trying to figure out where the economy is heading. trillion business (approximately) for banks all over the country. This is it. Construction and Industrial (C&I) loans are a $2.8 If they roll over, we have a soft landing.
It should also not be ignored that this survey is following the banking scare. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. There is a sense that the banking scare solved the inflation problem.
But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Lets dive into 15 of the best recession-proof business ideas you can start today, even in a bad economy. This is because consumers become concerned about the economy or have lost their jobs and means of income.
(creativeplanning.com) Silicon Valley Bank Regulators have shuttered Silicon Valley Bank. cnbc.com) How Silicon Valley Bank reached insolvency. netinterest.co) Silicon Valley Bank didn't have a Chief Risk Officer for most of 2022. nongaap.substack.com) How rising interest rates have hurt bank balance sheets.
Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. peaked in 2012. sherwood.news) Where SVB's business stands as JP Morgan ($JPM) looks to make inroads. bloomberg.com) ETFs Where active ETFs are growing fastest.
The spectacular blow-up currently taking place at SVB and its primary subsidiary, Silicon Valley Bank, is the biggest story in the markets this week. As Jim Cramer put it last night, the Federal Reserve has been firing a machine gun at the economy for the last 12 months but it hasn’t hit anything yet.
Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added
economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”
Companies Marc Rubenstein, "PayPal Holdings Inc is not a bank and doesn’t enjoy any of the protections that are afforded to banks." politico.com) Economy There's still no sign of a recession in the data. netinterest.co) Why CVS ($CVS) and Walgreen's ($WBA) are struggling. msnbc.com) There's Netflix ($NFLX) and everyone else.
Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. See also : State Coincident Indexes ( Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia , July 27, 2022). “For the entire United States. Real wholesale + retail sales. Real consumer spending.
This week, we speak withAustan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He’s president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That is a sign of credibility of the central bank. And I think that the, the chat GPT AI version of a central bank. Inflation as a driver of returns.
bloomberg.com) Economy The apartment market is slowing rapidly. calculatedriskblog.com) Central banks are all fighting the same phenomenon. (tomtunguz.com) Meta ($META) looks bad relative to its FAANGM brethren. ritholtz.com) Airbnb ($ABNB) hosts are feeling a downturn. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Thursday linkfest.
wsj.com) Revolut now has a UK banking license. ft.com) Economy The case for the Fed to cut rates. wsj.com) How the post-pandemic economy is messing with the Sahm Rule. (allstarcharts.com) It's not just the U.S. that is seeing fewer publicly traded companies. wsj.com) Chuck Royce, founder of Royce Funds, is retiring.
On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Bank Earnings – “Bank Earnings to Put U.S. Economy Under Microscope.” The post A Good Old Fashioned Run on the Bank appeared first on The Reformed Broker. ” ►Ch.
appleinsider.com) Banking There is a good reason why companies pay banks for fairness opinions. capitalgains.thediff.co) Did banks botch the recent batch of IPOs? wsj.com) Bank bonus season is looking bleak this year. noahpinion.blog) Economy What inventory levels tell us about the housing market.
Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening.
acquired.fm) Matt Reustle talks with Alex Fitch and Bill Nygren about the business of First Citizens Bank. open.spotify.com) Non-finance Chris Hays talks with Felix Salmon about his book "The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal."
Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP : Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. Previously : Are We in a Recession? (No)
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The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. ” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Marketwatch , Kiplingers , and many others.
huddleup.substack.com) Silicon Valley Bank How Silicon Valley Bank took its eye off the risk management ball. wsj.com) Banking has risks that other industries simply don't. washingtonpost.com) Economy The economy is on the verge of a manufacturing recession. (variety.com) How 'Ted Lasso' has become a big business.
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Yes Bank vs IDFC Bank : Banks are the economic engine. The higher the asset quality of banks, the better the state of the economy. Banks facilitate the flow of money in markets following monetary policy, which determines the economy’s growth and decline. 7,250 crores at Rs.
These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.
Top clicks this week Rising rates are still working their way through the markets and economy. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Ten reasons why SVB failed including 'The whole banking system is a bizarre confidence trick.' allisonschrager.substack.com) Surprises shouldn't be surprising. dariusforoux.com) Energy stocks are now struggling.
Economy Katie Gatti Tassin about the disconnect in the economy with Mark Zandi and Judd Cramer. open.spotify.com) Stephen Clapham talks sustainability with Carine Smith Ihenacho is Chief Governance and Compliance Officer at Norges Bank, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. SFBs also promote savings by providing a higher interest rate compared to full-service banks like HDFC and Kotak. In this article on fundamental analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank. Lakh Lives.
on.ft.com) Banks are increasingly backing capital call loans. theringer.com) Economy Some bad news on the inflation front. (bloomberg.com) Walmart ($WMT) is expanding home delivery of pharmaceuticals. fastcompany.com) Finance Howard Marks thinks nearly every investor should look at private debt.
Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2024 2025 2026 Mar 2024 2.0 Statement here. Here are the projections. Dec 2023 1.2 Dec 2023 1.2 The unemployment rate was at 3.9%
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blog.johnwallstreet.com) EconomyBank credit is still tight. (etf.com) Sports business Sports betting companies are looking for new ways to get your money. cnn.com) Can a sports league have too much inventory? disciplinefunds.com) Everybody's experience with inflation is different.
(wsj.com) How Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is changing its banking business. spyglass.org) Economy Industrial production rose in June. riabiz.com) Apple Taboola is going to sell ads for Apple ($AAPL). axios.com) Om Malik, "Apple’s decision to strike a deal with Taboola is shocking and off-brand."
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