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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic outlook worsened considerably"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. The outlook in several Districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, rose. emphasis added

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Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty"

Calculated Risk

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. Further, recent surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. GDP expanded at a 2.3

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FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate; "Uncertainty Increased"

Calculated Risk

FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.

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FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Calculated Risk

FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid.

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FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously anticipated"

Calculated Risk

A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation. All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated.

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NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased; Delinquency Rate "Edged Up"

Calculated Risk

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $63 billion, representing a 1.3%

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NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased $185 Billion in Q2; Delinquencies Elevated

Calculated Risk

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post analyzing borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $78 billion, representing a 1.5% trillion at the end of June 2025.