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FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Calculated Risk

So we think the forecasts for 2026 and beyond will remain largely unchanged. emphasis added From Goldman: We are not making any changes to our Fed forecast and continue to expect the first of three normalization cuts in December , followed by two more in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%. Dec 2024 1.8 Dec 2024 4.2 Dec 2024 2.3

Banking 286
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FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up

Calculated Risk

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2025 2026 2027 Jun 2025 1.2 Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate 2 Projection Date 2025 2026 2027 Jun 2025 4.4 So, GDP was revised down for 2025. Mar 2025 1.5

Banking 205
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A Very Early Look at 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

Calculated Risk

If wages increased 5% in 2024, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $185,000 in 2026 , from the current $176,100. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2024 yet, although we know wages increased solidly in 2024. Remember - this is a very early look.

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Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC

Calculated Risk

three previously) at its June and December meetings, followed by another cut in June 2026, to an unchanged terminal rate of 3.5-3.75%. Following this mornings data, we now expect the FOMC to deliver two 25bp cuts this year (vs.

Marketing 266
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FOMC Projections: GDP Revised Down, Inflation Revised Up

Calculated Risk

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2025 2026 2027 Mar 2025 1.5 GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2025 2026 2027 Mar 2025 1.5 Dec 2024 1.8 Dec 2024 1.8 in February. Dec 2024 4.2

Banking 179
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FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp

Calculated Risk

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2024 2025 2026 2027 Sept 2024 1.9 Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate 2 Projection Date 2024 2025 2026 2027 Sept 2024 4.3 June 2024 1.9 June 2024 3.9

Banking 182
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (June 14–15)

Nerd's Eye View

Other key findings from the survey included a gap between long-term investment return expectations of investors and advisors (12.6%