Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Q4-over-Q4 in 2023. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investments 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. year-over-year in November compared to November 2021. compared to the same period in 2021.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Economy Banking 285

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales 165

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 165

The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor.

Food 364

Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs added in 2021. Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2022. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). Alas, utterly nothing. of its value.

Economy 326

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 326

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. The fasted 1,000 point milestone to milestone interval ever was only five days from 32,000 to 33,000 in March 2021. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector.

Economics 69

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 69

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

(ft.com) The most active growth stage investors of 2021-22 have pulled WAY back. nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

Marketing 261

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 261

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building (July 9, 2021).

Medicine 329

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 329

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 335

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 335

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. 2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 339

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 339

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

What it does reveal is that the Federal Reserve is not current with the latest research on 1) What drives inflation; 2) The fallibility of surveys and polling data; 3) An updated understanding of behavioral economics and how human decision-making works.

Economy 301

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 301

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth.

Economy 326

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 326

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 307

Economics Retail Economy Banking 307

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2022

in 2023 (4Q/4Q) as the lagged effects of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions cool the economy. So far, the economic slowdown has not pushed up the unemployment rate. from September 2021. For example, BofA is projecting: We now forecast GDP growth to slow to 0.2% in 2022 (4Q/4Q) and expect growth to slow to -0.9%

Banking 345

Banking Communication Economy Economics 345

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

“With over 71% of S&P 500 companies finished reporting revenues and earnings for Q2-2021, the revenue and earnings surprises are at their lowest levels since the pandemic recovery began. It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Revenues , too).

Economics 261

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 261

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

Laurence Ball, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins and Research Associate at the National Bureau Of Economic Research, made the case in 2013 that 4% was a more rational target. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. 4 Consider : We had 2% inflation expectations the entire post-GFC era.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

While some folks are suggesting that this is “Too far too fast,” I suggest putting it into context: As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has been ~flat since its November 2021 peak, and essentially flat over 2022-23 calendar years. But for context, the Nasdaq 100 is also flat since its November 2021 peak, and up a mere 3.1%

Economy 329

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 329

The Big Picture

JULY 22, 2022

What’s Going On…With Jobs The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don’t favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy. Problem is, they’ve forgotten what that feels like. Wall Street Journal ). I’d rather watch the sunset!’:

Engineering 273

Engineering Management Economy Economics 273

The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2023

Jezebel ) • David Crosby on love, music and rancour: ‘Neil Young is probably the most selfish person I know’ (2021): At 80, the superstar musician has survived heroin addiction, illness and tragedy to hit an unprecedented run of musical form. Washington Post ) see also Politicians Want to Keep Money Out of E.S.G.

Startup 274

Startup Economics Economy Banking 274

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker showed nominal wage growth increased sharply in 2021 and for most of 2022. This depends on the Fed (next question) and if the economy slides into a recession. year-over-year as of November).

Economics 225

Economics Sales Retirement Economy 225

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 9, 2023

The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. Inflation Pinched Pockets. 1] [link]. [2] 2] [link]. [3]

Accounting 97

Accounting Retirement Economics Financial Planning 97

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." months in November 2021. from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Economy 167

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 24, 2023

Historical impact of pandemics on the economy Historically, health pandemics have caused significant shocks to the U.S. Flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were followed by economic downturns while the 1918 Spanish flu was extremely disruptive to the entire society at the time. percent in mid-2021. What is transitory inflation?

Economy 119

Economy Economics Government Transportation 119

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. on average, well above the 7.1% average seen in all years.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

The Fed Is Caught Between a Rock and a Cold Hard and Lonely Place Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave us the most detailed description of how the Fed is thinking about policy in the face of massive tariffs in a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, April 16. That would be the slowest pace since March 2021.

Marketing 78

Marketing Marketing Economy Investments 78

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 15, 2023

theatlantic.com) The IRS is still working through 2021 paper returns. wsj.com) Has economics run out of big ideas? awealthofcommonsense.com) The labor economy is already cooling off. bloomberg.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. nytimes.com) Why the labor economy is still so tight. nytimes.com).

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Economy Retail Economics 130

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Analysis: Acceleration in consumer inflation increases the odds of further Fed action Robust spending and income for January was in line with other strong economic data for the month, showing renewed economic vigor despite the Fed’s efforts to cool inflationary conditions. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) climbed by 1.8

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98