The Big Picture

JULY 15, 2025

But before we get to that, let’s start with Bachelor’s in economics from Hamilton, MBA from NYU. And a friend of mine who had gotten fired from this economic consulting firm, got a job at Chase Econometrics, IDC, and said, you have to come over here. And then number three is gonna be sentiment and valuation.

Numbers

Dear Mr. Market

MARCH 6, 2025

The misunderstood villain of the economic world, blamed for everything from rising grocery bills to why Uncle Bobs imported car parts now cost a fortune. 2018 : -4.41% 2019 : +31.74% 2020 : +18.38% Looking at these numbers, history shows that the first wave of tariffs introduced by Trump created notable market volatility, hurt certain U.S.

Marketing

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 17, 2025

We’ll get to where you work at JP Morgan, but economics bachelor’s from Columbia MBA from Harvard. So I decided to become an economics major and a psychology minor. So the intersection of psychology and economics became really interesting. 00:15:06 [Speaker Changed] But hindsight’s 2020. Absolutely.

Investing

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2025

You thrived in oh 7, 0 8 and nine, you were notably up in years where most people were down again, in Q1 of 2020, you guys did really well. The valuation of risk versus 00:46:33 [Speaker Changed] Reward 00:46:34 [Speaker Changed] Is something that I think a machine cannot do in the same way that human can. Economics is not a science.

Risk Management

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Maybe this economic slowing results in a mild shallow recession, maybe not. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020). 50% chance ). Countertrend?

Economy

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2024

She observes it is less about the things investors tend to focus on — “technical analysis, geopolitics, behavioral finance and even skirt hemline trends” — and more about specific measures she tracks in sentiment, valuation, macro-economic areas. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.

Marketing

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast?

Economics

Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 1, 2021

Global Leaders Investment Letter - Q4 2020 jharrison Mon, 02/01/2021 - 08:25 Just want the PDF? One of the most important investing reminders of 2020 was around one of the few sources of investment edge: time. When does crowd psychology take hope for economic return beyond what valuation can support? What is Space?

Investing

Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 1, 2021

Global Leaders Investment Letter - Q4 2020. One of the most important investing reminders of 2020 was around one of the few sources of investment edge: time. The power of our clear and disciplined process was evident throughout 2020 as it enabled us to focus on our long investment horizon during a stressful and uncertain period.

Investing

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 7, 2024

The Chinese market has struggled since 2020 due to COVID-19, real estate issues, and tech company crackdowns. Additionally, foreign investors are shifting funds from India to China, attracted by lower valuations. These valuations reflect different economic conditions and investor sentiments in each country.

Valuation

Discipline Funds

MARCH 10, 2023

What I mean by that is that we’re currently navigating the economic bust portion of the cycle where inflation is a falling risk and credit deflation risk arises, in large part, because the Fed has reacted so quickly to bring inflation in. The 2020 and 2021 inflation was the tsunami. You don’t have to pick just one.

Risk Management

Carson Wealth

JULY 27, 2022

Not only was the economy more open last year, but those quarters benefited from consumers making up for low spending in 2020 and from large amounts of government aid. . Valuations Could Move to a More Normal Range . The decline in the equity market pushed valuations down to levels in line with the period between 2015 and 2020.

Marketing

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

million, the lowest level since May 2020 [Figure 1]. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index, another important housing metric, fell in August to below 50 for the first time since May 2020. Traffic of prospective buyers, a leading indicator of future sales, also fell to its lowest since May 2020.

Marketing

Validea

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

By Justin Carbonneau ( Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube ) — Over the past few weeks, I’ve seen a number of charts highlighting the opportunity in small-cap stocks given their absolute and relative valuations. The chart below, also from our market valuation tool, compares small cap value to large cap growth stocks. Only 12.4%

Valuation

Validea

MAY 5, 2023

With valuations still high, the threat of a recession still looms over the economy, ushering in a prolonged period of low returns across the market, from stocks and real estate to corporate profits, as well as elevated inflation and unemployment rates. But for long-term prosperity in the U.S.

Economics

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

at year-end can largely explain the compression in valuation, especially for higher multiple equities, primarily during the first half of the year. Since 1995, there are four rather distinct periods during which forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 Index declined, tied to a specific event and/or economic downturn. by year-end.

Clients

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 16, 2024

DOWNLOAD OUR 2024 MARKET OUTLOOK The Macroeconomic Backdrop As we look to the year ahead, our proprietary Leading Economic Index (LEI) indicates even lower odds of a recession than 2023. Our Market Views This economic environment should support solid earnings growth and improved margins, leading to a good year for markets.

Investing

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

Pockets of attractive valuations exist despite above-average valuations in some high-profile areas of the market. The measure is at 80.7%, exactly where it was a year ago and higher than at any point between July 2001 and February 2020. Following the huge 11.2% But does a strong labor market raise inflation concerns?

Marketing

Trade Brains

JANUARY 21, 2024

The railways, like the veins of the country, connect states, making it very economical to transport goods across India as well as to the ports, from where they will be exported to the world. The Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC), which began operation in 2020 achieved the milestone of running one lakh trains. 2022 ₹1,181.74 ₹49.65

Manufacturing

James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

The official arbiter of business cycle dating is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). had never before experienced the massive swings in economic activity during the 2020 pandemic, making even the current analysis more difficult. The economic growth outlook has weakened. Of course, the U.S.

Marketing

Validea

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

Top economists, Federal Reserve governors and Wall Street strategists – many with PhDs and decades economics experience and education – didn’t see this coming. But at the start of the year, equity valuations were high and yields were historically low. The chart below shows the U.S. 10 Year Treasury around 1.5% less than a year ago.

Portfolio

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 11, 2023

jump in productivity represented the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2020. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Source: Econoday, December 8, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. The report also showed unit labor costs falling at a 1.2% Jobless Claims.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Hiring also seems to have pulled back a lot, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) telling us that the hiring rate (hires as a percent of the labor force) has pulled back to 3.3% — a rate we last saw in 2013 (excluding the peak pandemic months in 2020). Right now, that’s running at a 3-month annualized pace of 4.4%.

Marketing

Validea

AUGUST 12, 2022

Yearly dividend payouts have increased every year for the past 10 years, aside from a dip in 2020. As the equity market has struggled against economic headwinds, dividend stocks have gained popularity this year as investors look for a steady source of income that can withstand volatility. billion from the same period in 2021.

Marketing

The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 12, 2020

By Joe Nocera Entering into a crisis is not the time to figure out what you want to be By Jamie Dimon This burgeoning mass of defined-contribution assets will be ground zero for the upward redistribution of equity assets By William Bernstein The scars of 2008 run deep, not just for economic policymakers but also for their critics By George Pearkes (..)

Valuation

Validea

AUGUST 5, 2022

With the Fed swiftly raising rates and the slowing of economic growth, small-cap stocks have gotten pummeled. That’s positive news for small-caps, especially as the pattern of underperforming before a recession and outperforming as a recession wanes is one that small-caps have followed in 1990, 2001, 2008, and 2020.

Valuation

Trade Brains

JUNE 26, 2024

This can be due to various reasons like global economic concerns or shifts in investment strategies. Years Amount (in crores) 2020 170260.39 High Valuations and Sector Underperformance which Disappointed FIIs Most of the FIIs sold Indian stocks due to high valuation concerns and sector-wise underperformance. 2021 25750.2

Valuation

Validea

APRIL 14, 2023

From 1980 to 2020, the gap between the economic output of developed and emerging markets has shrunk substantially, with the GDP per capita in emerging markets shooting from 20% to more than 50%. while last year it was 0.77.

Marketing

Talon Wealth

AUGUST 30, 2021

In addition to macroeconomic factors, rising COVID infections also risk slowing economic progress. Improving prospects against the pandemic as well as improved prospects for economic recovery should continue to help lift markets globally over time. Chart of the Week. Market Update. S&P sectors were mixed this week.

Risk Tolerance

Discipline Funds

MARCH 7, 2023

1 It’s interesting in the context of economic growth as we tend to think of economic growth across “cycles” or repeating ups and downs. But one of the great lessons I’ve learned over the course of my career studying financial markets and economics is that these things almost always take longer than we expect.

Economics

Investing Caffeine

JUNE 3, 2024

Remember that global pandemic back in 2020 called COVID-19 that killed over 350,000 people in the U.S.? What did the stock market actually do in 2020? Bad economic news turned out to be good news for stocks. That same year, the unemployment rate reached a sky-high level of 14.9% (vs. GDP was advancing at a reasonable +1.9%

Risk Tolerance

Investing Caffeine

APRIL 1, 2022

As I pointed out last month, we are coming off a heroic advance over the last three years (2019/2020/2021) with the S&P 500 soaring +90%. The hangover from COVID has created significant supply chain disruptions and widespread economic shortages. Source: Trading Economics. Source: Trading Economics.

Economy

Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2023

Commentators continue to shout the doom-and-gloom forecasts of a hard landing recession, but after an economic hurricane in 2022 there are some signs the financial clouds have begun to lift this year. Investors Waiting for Another Flood While the calls for a hard economic landing remain, healthy GDP growth ( +2.9% 1, 2023).

Economy

Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

Industry Overview India’s GDP is projected to exhibit robust growth exceeding 6% for the fiscal year 2024, indicating a promising economic trajectory. 2020 -385.62 -361.04 2020 -8.6 -9.2 The company has only one line of business, i.e., financing and investment activities and has no activity outside India. 2019 93.99

Valuation

The Irrelevant Investor

MAY 31, 2022

After the strongest week for stocks since November 2020 , the S&P 500 is just a 16% rip away from taking out new highs. The narrative on the downside made a lot of sense; inflation isn't going away, inventory is building up, the fed has to cool demand, AKA cause a recession, valuations are normalizing, etc. I really don't.

Valuation

Trade Brains

MAY 24, 2023

India is a land of agriculture, and to revolutionize the farming sector, a company inspired by Mahatma Gandhi’s economic freedom began to manufacture tractors under the brand name “Swaraj” in the last seven decades. million in 2020, and it is expected to reach & 12,700.8 2020 0 6,555.40 2022 0 2,160.23

Engineering

James Hendries

JULY 21, 2022

So far, this year hasn’t seen a full-blown crisis like 2008–2009 or 2020, but the ride has been very bumpy. Understandably, rising prices, slowing economic growth, and a challenging first half for both stocks and bonds have many investors on edge, and fatigue from more than two years of COVID-19 measures doesn’t make it any easier.

Management