Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Today, the financial plan itself is increasingly becoming not just a ‘value-add’ supporting other services like portfolio management, but rather the whole purpose of (and primary value proposition for) the client relationship to begin with.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

We work on theoretical portfolios here all the time that blend in strategies that really are negatively correlated or at least very little correlation. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns. Enduring a bear market is about both, behavior and portfolio construction.

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Integrity Financial Planning

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This strategy tells you to put 60% of your portfolio in equities and 40% in bonds or other fixed-income offerings. 3] Because stocks account for 60% of the 60/40 allocation, their drop has affected 60/40 portfolios, sinking their value. In a 60/40 allocation, this negatively affects the whole portfolio. 1] [link]. [2]

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 14, 2024

Long time readers might know my fascination with Nassim Taleb's idea about barbelling portfolios to concentrate risk into a small slice while having the vast majority in safe assets. What I am curious to see is if we can combine this barbell idea with the 75/50 portfolio to get a market equaling (or beating) returns over longer periods.

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Alpha Architect

AUGUST 29, 2022

We address this question by examining equity markets’ reaction and investors’ portfolio rebalancing in response to the first-time disclosure of the ratio of CEO to median worker pay by U.S. public companies in 2018. Do equity markets care about income inequality?

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

From the AQR site , QSPIX "aims to deliver attractive risk adjusted returns with low correlation to traditional stock/bond portfolios by investing in a broad and diversified range of alternative risk premia." So a core holding, I think that conceptually it could be risk parity meets the Permanent Portfolio?

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

He oversees the firm’s liquid and private credit strategies, and also serves as a portfolio manager within Oaktree’s global private debt and global credit strategies. This week, we speak with Armen Panossian , managing director and head of performing credit at Oaktree Capital Management , which has $179 billion in assets under management.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 5, 2022

In the last few blog posts we've looked at portfolios that seek to replace bonds with alts in such a way to reduce portfolio volatility the way bonds used to. In a couple of instances we've created portfolios that outperformed Vanguard Balanced Index (VBAIX) a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio and did so with a lower standard deviation.

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Validea

JUNE 13, 2025

A concentrated portfolio of deeply undervalued, high-quality companies that could be attractive to strategic buyers, private equity firms, or activist investors. After a tough stretch in 2022–2024, it is the top-performing Validea portfolio in 2025 YTD , up 25.7% The result? Notably: It soared in 2009 , returning 153.9%

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 29, 2025

First up, Phillip Toews who runs an asset management shop and who wrote a book about about behavioral portfolio construction wrote about understanding market history and a section on how to build robust portfolio that reads like he could have outsourced that part of the article to me. That is buying low.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Torsten Slok blogged about how ineffective bonds have been in terms of providing any return or diversification benefits lately in the context of a 60/40 portfolio. The third portfolio is just the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Despite all the leverage, Portfolio 1 has a very smooth ride including up a lot in 2022.

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Validea

MARCH 27, 2025

Model Performance & Return History Since its inception on Validea in 2003, the 20-stock, monthly rebalanced Peter Lynch-based portfolio has delivered a 1,142.0% 38.5%) 2018 : -22.7% (vs. This nuanced, category-specific approach gives the model flexibility while remaining true to Lynchs principles. 6.2%) 2015 : -13.8% (vs.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 9, 2025

A portfolio strategy that goes narrower than a couple of broad based index funds probably has some exposure to dividend stocks already so the decision about whether to make any changes can be moot, you already have some exposure. To be clear, Portfolio 3 does use the portable alpha approach, it is leveraged by 40%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 7, 2022

A couple of months ago we looked at The Cockroach Portfolio , a sort of all-weather portfolio that seems like it could be an attempt to update and evolve the Permanent Portfolio which allocates an equal 25% to stocks, long bonds, gold and cash. Starting in 2018 causes the performance to change as follows.

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Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

There are a lot of opportunities to diversify portfolios so they arent as concentrated as the S&P 500. in 2018-2019. in 2018-2019). A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Workers are quitting their jobs less frequently. By no means is a 1.9% million versus1.8

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

My interest goes back long before the ReturnStacked ETFs existed and I believe long before the term capital efficiency was common, to Nassim Taleb writing about barbelling returns where most of the risk is allocated to just 10% of a portfolio with the rest in very conservative things like T-bills. Here is some modeling we did on August 19th.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2025

To help us unpack this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Matt Hougan. I think many of the skeptics don’t evaluate where the data is today because they’re taking a 2022 or 2018 or 2014 view of Bitcoin and crypto. I’m Barry Ritholtz. The firm runs over 10 billion in crypto assets.

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Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 2, 2024

In the past decade it has been only the 10 th best month, thanks in part to a 6% drop in 2022 and a 9% crash in 2018. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Third, since 1950, December has been the third best month on average (only April and November are better).

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Investment Writing

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Commentary about portfolio performance is part of every investment manager’s communications. It can consist of a single line giving portfolio returns. In this article, I review portfolio performance reports’ common components. In this article, I review portfolio performance reports’ common components.

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Trade Brains

JANUARY 29, 2024

2018-19 ₹ 5,024.69 ₹ 2,654.05 2018-19 ₹ -1,537 ₹ 1,366.56 2018-19 -1.36 2018-19 -0.99 SJVN SJVN intends to diversify its portfolio by undertaking various projects as part of the government’s 24/7 electricity initiative. Suzlon SJVN 2022-23 ₹ 5,970.53 ₹ 2,938.35 2019-20 ₹ 2,972.85 ₹ 2,644.66 2021-22 -1.79

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 9, 2024

It offered no crisis alpha though in the 2020 Pandemic Crash and in 2018 it was down 13.5% Toward the end of the interview was a quote from Meb that I've seen before and that we've talked about related to having half of a portfolio in trend (managed futures) but he concedes that " I don’t think anyone else on the planet believes that. "

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Darrow Wealth Management

JULY 1, 2024

In 2018, the brackets dropped to 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%. Mortgage interest will once again be tax-deductible on larger loans As a result of the 2017 legislation, between 2018 and 2025, interest on new mortgages is only tax-deductible up to $750,000 of mortgage debt on a primary or second home.

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Trade Brains

NOVEMBER 17, 2023

2018-19 7.04 -1.87 Financial Year OPM NPM 2022-23 23.86% 15.77% 2021-22 14.55% 5.50% 2020-21 53.85% -18.26% 2019-20 6.69% -55.99% 2018-19 45% -27.13% Average (5 Years) 28.79% -16% Return Ratios The company growth in RoE was 96.9% However, with an exponential growth in Net profits, CAGR growth cannot be compared. Net Profit (Cr.)

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 4, 2025

I spent a lot of time Monday evening going down the Blackrock rabbit hole starting with their thoughts about adding Bitcoin to a portfolio which they say they're starting to do in their models. The Blackrock Opportunistic Alts Portfolio is more interesting. This model overlaps a lot with the next model. It has 77.5%

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Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

6 million level we saw in 2018-2019. million level we saw in 2018-2019. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. These levels are not a bad place to be if things can hold at this level, but its the trend thats concerning. Hires fell to 5.3 million a month, well below the 1.8-2.0

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Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

This is why having a globally diversified portfolio can benefit US-centric investors, as the US won’t always lead. General Electric was the most recent of the 12 to be included, but was it removed October 2018. You can also see that the LEI deteriorated in a sharp manner back in 2018 amid the trade war and Fed tightening.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

The general idea is that selling puts can lower portfolio volatility (I use a different fund, with a much different put strategy that does this) and help manage the downside but not during crashes. Ditto the Christmas Crash in 2018. LOTIX is a managed futures fund with a comparison to the standard 60/40 portfolio as proxied with VBAIX.

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Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

2018-19 ₹ 1,710.77 ₹ 215.79 2018-19 ₹ - 22.52 ₹ 88.67 Particulars/ Financial Year RoCE (%) Titagarh Railsystems Jupiter Wagons 2022-23 16.82% 23.88% 2021-22 8.87% 11.74% 2020-21 4.27% 11.24% 2019-20 1.87% 2.36% 2018-19 1.08% 1.06% Debt Analysis Titagarh and Jupiter’s debt-to-equity ratios in FY23 were 0.71 crore and Rs.

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Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Only once has December been the worst month of the year for the S&P 500 (2018). y/y versus the 2018-2019 average of 3.7%. y/y versus the 2018-2019 average of 3.3%. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. OER is up 4.9%

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

The portfolio constituents are labeled on the screen grab. I think that is attributable to a terrible year for 100/100 in 2018. Terrible year in 2018 or 2022? 2018 was still lousy and 2022 was very good. I am more open to RSST as a core position than I was but 2018 is a good example of how it can go poorly.

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Trade Brains

JUNE 17, 2025

This all-cash deal, with the consideration payable in a single tranche at closing shall mobilize proceeds from UGRO’s recently announced equity raise, will deploy capital into a fully secured asset portfolio delivering instant scale benefits with zero origination costs, making Profectus a wholly owned subsidiary. and Net NPA of 1.1%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 26, 2024

Although the way we articulate these ideas has changed we've basically been having the same conversation about trying to learn how to better diversify the portfolio without giving up too much of the equity market's ergodicity, it's inertia from going up more often than not. The ride is obviously very smooth over a decently long time frame.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 11, 2024

The 1987 crash was partly attributed to selling portfolio insurance and there was the so called Volmageddon of 2018. 2018 was not 1987 and if there is another event where volatility ends up being a major determent then it will be different than the other two but with some overlap. There have been volatility events before.

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Trade Brains

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

2018-19 3,652.45 Financial Year OPM (%) NPM (%) 2022-23 6.50% 2.66% 2021-22 2% -2.81% 2020-21 0.65% -6.21% 2019-20 8.72% 1.63% 2018-19 7.63% 3.93% Average (5 Years) 5.10% -0.16% Return Ratios Force has RoE 7.38% in FY23 as compared to -5.08 Earnings remain volatile till the volume stabilizes. Financial Year Revenue (Cr.) 2019-20 3,080.52

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Validea

MARCH 13, 2025

Since its inception on Validea in 2003, the models 10-stock, annually rebalanced portfolio has returned 825% , outperforming the S&P 500 by 361.8%. This portfolio is set to be rebalanced in June 2025, so you can follow the portfolio by accessing Validea today. Returns are model returns and do not reflect actual trading.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 17, 2024

The idea of building an All-Weather portfolio of course has its appeal. The basic idea is to be much less volatile than the broad market or the typical 60/40 portfolio. It raises the question though of how much performance should an investor expect or be willing give up for the potential emotional comfort of an All-Weather portfolio.

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