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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345
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Build a Resilient Investment Strategy With The All Weather Portfolio

Validea

Investors looking for a diversified portfolio that performs well in all market conditions have long been drawn to the All Weather Portfolio, a strategy pioneered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. The portfolio allocates across U.S. equities, gold, commodities, and long-duration and intermediate-term Treasury bonds.

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Where is This Rally Going?

The Big Picture

Those of you looking for income might consider putting fresh money to work building a bespoke muni portfolio, or buying the appropriate muni fund for your circumstances. ( Depending on the specifics a 4.5-5% 5% muni yield is the taxable equivalent of 8-10%. we are happy to help ). Regime Change : The shift from monetary to fiscal stimulus.

Taxes 288
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When, Where, and for How Long

The Big Picture

They all have different sensitivities to economic factors like trade, inflation, commodities, and growth. Within the equity portion of your portfolios, they can provide some measure of diversification. Oversimplifying them into narratives or relying on context-free myths will not serve your portfolio well.

Economics 299
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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction. If you believed these stories, and acted on them, your portfolio probably did poorly in markets over this era. appeared first on The Big Picture.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

New York Times ) • How creators became an economic juggernaut and the new American Dream : Millions have ditched traditional career paths to work as online creators and content-makers, using their computers and phones to amass followers and build businesses whose influence now rivals the biggest names in entertainment, news and politics.

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MiB: Armen Panossian, Oaktree Capital Management

The Big Picture

He oversees the firm’s liquid and private credit strategies, and also serves as a portfolio manager within Oaktree’s global private debt and global credit strategies. He serves on the advisory board of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.