Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. in 2024 (around 2.6% Q4-over-Q4). Q4-over-Q4).

Economy 173

Economy Economics Sales Investing 173

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JANUARY 31, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.6

Food 162

Food Economics 162

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APRIL 17, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. In particular, recent economic uncertainty and concerns around job security could keep buyers on the sidelines, potentially applying downward pressure on prices. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings.

Numbers 162

Numbers Economics Sales Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2025 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the U.S.

Food 165

Food Economics 165

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

” That poor belief system has disadvantaged America — it has made us economically weaker, prevented the country from performing basic maintenance on its infrastructure, and generally made it a harsher place to live. Note that we undertook much of the work anyway (airports, electrical grid, roads, etc.),

Government 334

Government Economics Budgeting Taxes 334

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2025

I have known Scott Galloway since way before his first book, The Four , came out in 2017. market is overvalued, and if the alternative investment industry is one of the biggest grifts in economic history. He had been on MiB prior, and it was my pleasure to intro it at NYU Stern when it first was published.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Wealth Management Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 26, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5

Food 324

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DECEMBER 20, 2024

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3

Food 147

Food Taxes Economics 147

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2024

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June , according to estimates released today by the U.S.

Food 265

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JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

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FEBRUARY 29, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in January , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for January: Personal income increased $233.7 billion (1.0

Food 283

Food Taxes Economics 283

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MARCH 29, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January 2024 (2017 dollars). From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays for February: Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 billion (0.2

Food 295

Food Taxes Economics 295

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in December , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2023 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $60.0 billion (0.3

Food 282

Food Taxes Economics 282

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 9, 2024

wsj.com) Policy What happens if the 2017 tax cuts lapse. wsj.com) Investing in ports has positive spillover economic effects. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (msn.com) How Russian propaganda spreads despite bans in place. nytimes.com) Russia's population has been shrinking for decades.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Budgeting Economics Media 273

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JANUARY 2, 2024

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. If existing home sales remain sluggish, we could see months-of-supply back to 2017 - 2019 levels. Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?

Sales 296

Sales Economics 296

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 1, 2023

theatlantic.com) Policy Per the IRS, nearly 1,000 tax filers who earn more than $1 million per year have still not filed federal tax returns for at least one year from 2017 to 2020. stlouisfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. (bloomberg.com) Why have Republicans turned on PEPFAR?

Financial Advising 294

Financial Advising Taxes Media Government 294

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. However, with the dearth of new listings, it still seems unlikely - but not impossible - that inventory will be back up to the 2017 - 2019 levels. The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2023.

Economics 264

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 264

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Gold Chicago Booth Review, November 29, 2017 Previously : Top 0.1%: How Much Wealth Does It Take? Let’s Talk About the 0.01

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Numbers Economics 306

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Barron’s ) • What China’s economic problems mean for the world : There is a saying that when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Unemployment remains near historic lows even after the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. What’s behind the job market’s resilience—and why it could last.

Economics 245

Economics Banking Accounting Media 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2017 62.7% 2017 62.7% 2017 62.7% in December, down 0.4 2009 64.6% -1.2

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

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APRIL 7, 2023

Rail volumes today are being negatively influenced by broader economic trends, including slowdowns in industrial output, high inventory levels at many retailers, lower port activity, and consumer spending that’s not as robust as it was during most of the last three years. From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators.

Retail 246

Retail Economics 246

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JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

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MAY 31, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in April , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April: Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3

Food 211

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 4, 2023

But Bloomberg Economics sees risks ahead, from strikes to higher rates and oil prices. The yen then tumbled anew toward a record low of 150 to the dollar. Barron’s ) • Why a US Recession Is Still Likely — and Coming Soon : The government is staying open for now. Bloomberg ) see also A New Interest-Rate Regime Has Begun.

Economics 264

Economics Banking Government Investing 264

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JUNE 28, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in May , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May: Personal income income increased $114.1 billion (0.5

Food 200

Food Taxes Economics 200

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2023

They all have different sensitivities to economic factors like trade, inflation, commodities, and growth. ” A Secular Bull Market is an extended period of time (10-20 years) driven by broad economic shifts that create an environment conducive to increasing corporate revenue and earnings.

Economics 299

Economics Portfolio Marketing Marketing 299

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction. : Whether it’s crypto or artificial intelligence or the Magnificent 7, with that expectations dashed for a recession the narrative now flipped in the opposite direction.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 28, 2023

New York Times ) • How creators became an economic juggernaut and the new American Dream : Millions have ditched traditional career paths to work as online creators and content-makers, using their computers and phones to amass followers and build businesses whose influence now rivals the biggest names in entertainment, news and politics.

Wealth Management 278

Wealth Management Banking Financial Services Management 278

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OCTOBER 27, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2023 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $77.8

Food 189

Food Taxes Economics 189

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2024 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August: Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August , according to estimates released today by the U.S.

Food 182

Food Taxes Economics 182

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

He serves on the advisory board of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Panossian holds an MS degree in health services research from Stanford Medical School; a JD degree from Harvard Law School; and an MBA from Harvard Business School. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Management 182

Management Medical Portfolio Management Economics 182

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. Redefining Bull and Bear Markets (August 14, 2017). The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020). Are We in A Secular Bull Market?

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

Looking at the same 1950-2017 period, but looking through the lens of five-year investment horizons, returns for the S&P 500 ranged from down 3% to up 28%. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Taxes 98

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Not So Fast (April 3, 2020) Redefining Bull and Bear Markets (August 14, 2017) Secular market cycles reflect geo-political, economic and technological issues of era (November 15, 2014) Is the Secular Bear Market Coming to an End?

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2017 62.7% 2017 62.7% 2017 62.7% in November, up from 3.6% 2016 62.7%

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investing Investments 173