Wealth Management

JUNE 27, 2025

Michael was instrumental during AssetMark’s leveraged buyout transition to Genstar in 2013, its sale to Huatai Securities in 2016, its IPO in 2019, and its sale to GTCR in 2024. Michael received his Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Estate Planning 270

Estate Planning Marketing Marketing Wealth Management 270

The Big Picture

JANUARY 29, 2025

February 17, 2015) Click for video [link] Source: Economics Media Library The post The Daily Show: Wage Against the Machine appeared first on The Big Picture.

Media 113

Media Economics 113

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2025

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining student loan delinquency, including which borrowers were past due in the first quarter and implications for their access to other credit. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. rise from 2024Q4.

Retail 165

Retail Accounting Banking Economics 165

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. for this to be the case two things must have happened: 1) The secular bull market that began in 2013 has ended, and 2) We are now in a new secular bear market. We call these eras Secular Bull Markets.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. Wages in America (2013-2021). We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. The Fred Blog, December 5, 2022.

Distribution 312

Distribution Accounting Economics 312

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. That was written in 2013, and it appears once again that we've avoided the "default" policy error. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

JUNE 1, 2023

Regardless, credit Adam Hale Shapiro, a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, for calling out that his boss is wrong about this issue… Source : How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation? ( No) appeared first on The Big Picture.

Banking 317

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 317

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Numbers Economics 306

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

The Pandemic crash and rally was a 34% reset and a continuation of the bull that formally began in March 2013. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020) Redefining Bull and Bear Markets (August 14, 2017) Secular market cycles reflect geo-political, economic and technological issues of era (November 15, 2014) Is the Secular Bear Market Coming to an End?

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining growing balances of home equity lines of credit (HELOC). “ Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. rise from 2024Q1.

Retail 325

Retail Accounting Banking Economics 325

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69

Economics 305

Economics Retail Accounting Banking 305

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2023

From Federal Reserve Staff in 2013 on the debt ceiling debate: Possible Macroeconomic Effects of a Temporary Federal Debt Default. This is relevant today. Excerpts: Key considerations in evaluating the consequences of a debt default • Such an event would be unprecedented.

Government 353

Government Assets Economy Financial Market 353

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

"Credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances continued to increase in the third quarter of 2022 reflecting a combination of robust consumer demand and higher prices," said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. rise from 2022Q2.

Accounting 324

Accounting Banking Economics 324

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2013 62.9% -0.8 2013 62.9% -0.8 2013 62.9% -0.8 in December, down 0.4

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

Laurence Ball, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins and Research Associate at the National Bureau Of Economic Research, made the case in 2013 that 4% was a more rational target. The case for 4% inflation , Laurence Ball, VoxEU/CEPR 24 May 2013 3. Peasants: We have found a witch! (A a witch!)

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. “The rise from 2023Q2.

Retail 314

Retail Accounting Banking Economics 314

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. Should it be? Emphasis added).

Economics 325

Economics Budgeting Economy Taxes 325

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • Economic Innovation Group ). • Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S.

Communication 298

Communication Startup Economics Management 298

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 31, 2022

It’s hard to completely dismiss this as a leading indicator and I’m not here to do that, but while most drawdowns of this magnitude have led to economic contractions, they haven’t always. How Twitter Will Change as a Private Company : The social media company went public in 2013. At its low, the S&P 500 was 25% below its high.

Engineering 264

Engineering Economics Assets Media 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2023

Given the widespread adoption of behavioral economics (including three separate Nobels for Kahneman, Schiller, and Thaler) we tend to take this for granted today. I’ve spent my adult life watching markets and, more importantly, how people behave when they interact with those markets.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Asset Allocation Healthcare 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. this gives 2.4%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2013 62.9% -0.8 2013 62.9% -0.8 2013 62.9% -0.8 in November 2022.

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

"Credit card balances grew robustly in the 4th quarter, while mortgage and auto loan balances grew at a more moderate pace, reflecting activity consistent with pre-pandemic levels," said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013.

Accounting 246

Accounting Banking Economics 246

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the composition of auto loan balances and performance by age and income. Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels ,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed.

Accounting 208

Accounting Economics Banking 208

Meb Faber Research

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Fama, 2013 Nobel laureate in economic sciences, is widely recognized as the “father of modern finance.” Episode #455: Eugene Fama: A Life in Finance Guest: Eugene F. ” His research is well known in both the academic and investment communities.

Economics 105

Economics Investing Investments Marketing 105

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2023

When any new economic release comes out, you really don’t know how much is noise and how much is signal. Economic data is especially noisy, subject to revision, and based on models that are “ wrong but useful.” If you learn how to properly frame data, you can avoid errors of this kind.

Economics 130

Economics Media Government Investing 130

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

Should we have a full government shutdown (the last time was in 2013), then all 1.9 Some government economic data will be delayed, so things like the monthly jobs data won’t happen. It was estimated that the full shutdown in 2013 lead to a loss of $500 million in spending at national parks according to the National Park Services.

Government 111

Government Banking Food Economics 111

Validea

JUNE 2, 2025

Each of these asset classes tends to perform well in different economic regimes, making the All Weather strategy a compelling option for long-term investors who prioritize consistency and downside protection. All Weather Portfolio: Asset Class Behavior Across Economic Regimes Asset Class Performs Well In Why It’s Included U.S.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Investing Investments Economics 52

The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2025

Whether it was shoddy data analysis or a deliberate attempt to misinform, I found it offensive and brought the receipts as to the fundamental errors in the economic analysis. Here is NAICS code 722513 for California and Texas, indexed to 100 as of January 2013. During that seven year period, however, TX had a flat $7.25/hr

Food 306

Food Economics 306

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 30, 2023

Beijing’s relationship with the outside world is no longer guided by the principles of economic rationality, but rather by its yearning for political power. There’s no hefty stimulus coming this time. Nor will the explosive growth that experts once expected from China return. Aeon ) • Hear that?

Financial Services 130

Financial Services Food Assets Insurance 130

Investment Writing

JANUARY 14, 2024

Paraphrases, which restate what your source said, can be more economical and effective. NOTE: Originally published April 9, 2013. When you choose a Q&A format, you deny yourself the use of paraphrasing. As a reporter, I learned that only lazy reporters always use direct quotes. Updated Jan.

Economics 98

Economics Investing Investments 98