Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.48% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.60% in July).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2023

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.04% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.11% in January).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Morningstar, August 9, 2010. Concentrated portfolio risk. Russel Kinnel. Passive investing is: Marxist. Reached a mania.

Taxes 334

Taxes Portfolio Management Investing 334

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.75% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.86% in May).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Portfolio 195

Portfolio 195

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). But here is the unexpected thing about those predictions: Even if your forecast of future events is correct, the odds are against you capturing it in your portfolio. What’s already priced in?

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 26, 2024

Let's continue the conversation about all-weather generically and then the Cockroach Portfolio. First a comparison of the Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fund (PRPFX) versus a 60/40 portfolio comprised of two Vanguard mutual funds. Putting 20% in VIXM pretty much doomed that version of the portfolio.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Management Banking Financial Planning 93

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

Full transcript below. ~~~ Previously : Hirsch’s WTF Forecast: Dow 38,820 (September 28, 2010) Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It (April 12, 2011) ~~~ Jeffrey Hirsch is editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor Newsletter. The answer might surprise you.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

The Big Picture

AUGUST 24, 2024

New York Times ) • Politics and your portfolio: How the election could impact your money : Politics don’t matter for your portfolio if you’re one of many people investing to build wealth over a long period of time. OptimistiCallie ) see also Politics & Investing • Buy, Pose, Post: a semi-triumphant return of physical media.

Medical 173

Medical Portfolio Retail Media 173

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 12, 2025

The idea is that you get the full beta (stocks and bonds) return with just a portion of the portfolio often with futures or some other form of leverage, leaving dollars left over to add alternatives all in pursuit of better nominal returns or better risk adjusted returns. The fourth portfolio more closely aligns with what we do here.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Retail Assets Clients 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Some interesting conversations and the like related to portfolio construction and the use of alternative strategies. Nomadic Samuel kicked it off on Twitter with the following portfolio in a poll, asking whether a simple two fund, equity/bond 60/40 portfolio made more sense.

Planning 98

Planning Portfolio Investments Investing 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. financial advisers are kidding you if they say they are 'positioning' your portfolio for a specific interest-rate scenario. I found an interview I did with Seeking Alpha in late 2010 that made its way to NASDAQ.com. This is an important point.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Math 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2024

This brings us to the heart of today's post about trying to build a set but don't completely forget portfolio. This slice of the portfolio will go down more often than not, it is a tool to smooth out the ride. Referencing the weightings above, all of the portfolios have 65% in equity beta. In real life, I don't have that much.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Clients Asset Allocation 52

Discipline Funds

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

It’s a very low cost and tax efficient way to get access to a diversified portfolio. At the same time, you might have components of your portfolio that are inherently short-term (such as cash or T-Bills), but in the aggregate your portfolio will likely have a time horizon of 5, 10 or 20 years.

Investments 122

Investments Investing Taxes Portfolio 122

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 10, 2024

When we talk about expat living, I always say to not sell your house, to rent it out and live off the rental cash flow, allowing Social Security and the portfolio to grow. We've been saying for years, as the strategy was lagging throughout the 2010's, it was doing what it should, maintaining its negative correlation to equities.

Retirement Planning 98

Retirement Planning Portfolio Retirement Planning 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

There's no way to fit that many into a portfolio without having a portfolio of diversifiers hedged with a little bit of equity exposure which I don't think would be optimal. It has been challenging as we've talked about in other posts recently but I believe the 2010's were even worse. I'd say it's pretty close.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Management Portfolio Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 4, 2024

For a few years in the 2010's, I had a side gig working for ETF provider AdvisorShares. When I put together that they were running a capitally efficient portfolio I decided I wanted to play around with the 3x funds little bit here. None of the portfolios are leveraged up.

Portfolio 89

Portfolio Management Taxes Assets 89

Validea

MARCH 13, 2025

Since its inception on Validea in 2003, the models 10-stock, annually rebalanced portfolio has returned 825% , outperforming the S&P 500 by 361.8%. This portfolio is set to be rebalanced in June 2025, so you can follow the portfolio by accessing Validea today. Returns are model returns and do not reflect actual trading.

Valuation 52

Valuation Investing Investments Portfolio 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 9, 2024

Mutiny Funds put out a paper on the hows and whys of using alts for The Cockroach Portfolio that they manage and that we've looked at a few times. Picture retiring in 2010 versus 2020. The S&P 500 was down 22% for the 10 years ending 1/1/2010 while the ten years ending 1/1/2020 it was up 189%.

Management 98

Management Retirement Planning Portfolio Retirement 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 3, 2024

The 2010's was a rough decade for managed futures in nominal terms. 90/40 had a higher CAGR than traditional 60/40 but lower than 60% equities/40% managed futures in Portfolio 3. The advantage that both managed futures portfolios had over traditional 60/40 is how well they did in 2022.

Numbers 96

Numbers Portfolio Management Retirement 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 11, 2024

If you've done research on managed futures then you've probably read what a rough decade the 2010's were for the strategy. Maybe it's as simple as equities went up a lot but either way from 2010 through 2019, RYMFX negatively compounded at 2.07% and AQMIX compounded annually at a positive 77 basis points.

Management 93

Management Accounting Taxes Portfolio 93

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 9, 2023

From 2010 to 2020, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index averaged around 2 percent, a relatively low level by historical standards. From 2010-2019, the average interest rate on a one-year certificate of deposit was about.5%, It wasn’t that long ago that inflation was almost non-existent in the economy.

Retirement 98

Retirement Clients Certification Taxes 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 24, 2023

The catalyst for this post was a Tweet from Adam Butler who talked about a backdrop in the 2010's the promoted speculation and what he called Minskyian Moral Hazard (a nod to Hyman Minsky). Some allocation to equities is always going to be part of the portfolio. The tech sector ETF I use is an index fund but is used actively.

Management 75

Management Portfolio Accounting Retail 75

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 19, 2023

There are about 13 different portfolio managers each focused on a different sub-sector. And to the credit of the portfolio manager that I was working with Josh Fisher, we were actually up that year. So in 2010, when they were looking for someone to start their healthcare team in San Francisco, I, I jumped at the opportunity, right?

Healthcare 162

Healthcare Portfolio Management Investments 162

Brown Advisory

MAY 31, 2017

EUROPEAN RE-ENTRY: Why We Are Shifting Portfolios Toward European Stocks achen Thu, 06/01/2017 - 02:47 Asset allocation—at least for us—is an exercise in nuance. We move slowly and carefully when it comes to shifting our portfolios away from one asset class or region and toward another. Over the long term, that stance has paid off.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Valuation Economics 52

Brown Advisory

MAY 31, 2017

EUROPEAN RE-ENTRY: Why We Are Shifting Portfolios Toward European Stocks. We move slowly and carefully when it comes to shifting our portfolios away from one asset class or region and toward another. We maintain a model portfolio internally to track the results of our asset allocation stances. Thu, 06/01/2017 - 02:47.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Valuation Economics 52

Validea

JANUARY 13, 2023

Arnott’s method focused on funds the increased the most in asset size from 2010 to 2021, recognizing that the funds that were historically the most successful would get higher inflows; i.e., “the big generally get bigger.”. Quick Links Warren Buffett Portfolio High Momentum Stocks Low Volatility / Conservative Stocks.

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Portfolio Assets Management Investments 59

The Irrelevant Investor

FEBRUARY 21, 2018

Is there such a thing as a permanent portfolio? Links The new permanent portfolio From March 1995-March 1998, the S&P 500 rose 134% while the Permanent Portfolio rose just 36% “We tend to remember the best of times and the worst of times instead of the most likely of times.” From 1990 to 2010, private equity returned 14.4

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Government Sales Management 52

The Irrelevant Investor

NOVEMBER 24, 2020

What I'm talking about specifically is that if you owned a portfolio of the 10 largest stocks and did a rebalance every January, you absolutely annihilated the S&P 500. I suppose that's always the case to a certain extent, but this time has to be close to a record. I can't imagine this is always the case.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio 52

Validea

OCTOBER 17, 2022

The value investing strategy—acquiring shares of companies that are trading below their fair market value—had fallen out of favor in the 2010-2020 decade as high growth businesses dominated the market. But value is now outperforming growth with a 10% CAGR (compound annual growth rate), according to an article in Financial Express.

Investing 59

Investing Investments Portfolio Economy 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 5, 2024

The Permanent Portfolio-inspired Cambria Trinity ETF (TRTY) allocates 35% to trend. Saying TRTY is Permanent Portfolio-inspired is my impression, I don't know that Meb has ever described it that way. We've gone over the extent to which the 2010's were by and large terrible for managed futures. Meb is a huge believer in trend.

Management 52

Management Portfolio Assets Taxes 52

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

after adjusting for inflation, matching the average annual pace between 2010 and 2019. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% Since then, the economy has accelerated. The Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast is projecting 5.4%

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Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

The Irrelevant Investor

JUNE 13, 2017

Below are two nearly identical portfolios; both are sixty percent stocks and forty percent bonds. Each portfolio has twelve slices, with identical allocations in each sleeve. For example, portfolio 1 has a 10% position to U.S. Portfolio 2 also has a 10% position to U.S. Portfolio 2 sold after the 23.3%

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Investments 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 22, 2024

The space languished for most of the 2010's. It is another example of leveraging down as I like to describe it, using a capital efficient fund to build a full portfolio in a smaller portion of the portfolio and instead of adding on top, leveraging up, we can build in a large cash buffer. This year is kind of an anomaly so far.

Management 95

Management Portfolio Marketing Marketing 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 23, 2022

It was titled Should Investors Try To Hedge Tail Risk which I wrote in 2010. Here's what's going on under the hood of the Accelerate OneChoice Alternative ETF Portfolio for example. If you have any interest in sophisticated portfolio construction, bookmark and then get to work as best you can.

Portfolio 71

Portfolio Assets Management Retail 71

The Big Picture

AUGUST 28, 2024

On this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas joins us to discuss how fees can significantly impact your portfolio. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Eric Balchunas is been an ETF Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Over the long term, the difference between a few basis points can turn into real, big money.

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Assets Numbers Investments Investing 173