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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 5% in October; Up Sharply YoY

Calculated Risk

Over the month, commercial planning fell 6.7% and institutional planning declined 2.0%. “In Regardless, owners and developers remain confident in next year’s market conditions and the planning queue remains poised to spur stronger construction activity in 2025, following deeper rate cuts by the Fed.” in October to 197.2

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Did Capital Efficiency Malfunction In This Decline?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

My first introduction to the concept was from my time at Fisher Investments in 2002. The concept of barbell strategies, which are a form of capital efficiency, in this context is sort of borrowed from Nassim Taleb who years ago talked about putting 10% of a portfolio in very risky stuff and the other 90% in very safe things like T-bills.

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Transcript: Jonathan Clements

The Big Picture

And I think you will also, if you are at all curious about estate planning or investing or personal finance, this is not the usual discussion and I think it’s very worthwhile for you to hear this and share it with friends and family. What was your original career plan? With no further ado my discussion with Jonathan Clements.

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Facts About the 72t Early Distribution

Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

Ruling 2002-62 using the age you have reached (or will reach) for that year, coupled with a rate of interest of your choice that is not more than 120% of the federal mid-term rate published by regularly the IRS in an Internal Revenue Bulletin (IRB).

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New Year's Day Retirement Spectacular!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

If we go back to 2002 with this second back test using ProFunds Ultra S&P 500 (ULPIX) which is the mutual fund predecessor of SSO it looks bad because of how big of a hole any 2x fund would have had to dig out from after 2008 so there's some good context about the risk of any leverage strategy.

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in October

Calculated Risk

Commercial planning was bolstered by a solid increase in office and hotel projects. The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

the rocket launch company he founded in 2002, before he got involved at Tesla. Life Lessons from 1,000 Years : I asked a number of 90-year-olds a simple question: “If you could speak to your 32-year-old self, what advice would you give?” Source: Creative Planning via @PeterMallouk. New York Times ).

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