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"We're Living In 'End Times' When You Can't Retire On $1 Million"

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Also fire related, Walker Fire will be upgrading one of our water tenders (2000 gallon water truck) in the next year or so and I'd be able to take that out if we needed. Anyone relying on their portfolio to make their retirement plan work probably needs a "normal" allocation to equities.

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The Reboot and Rebrand of Advisor Today

NAIFA Advisor Today

As a Retirement Income Certified Professional and a Life and Annuities Certified Professional, John advises clients on retirement planning, investment planning, and risk management. His primary focus is to help people align their financial decisions with their values and truths to live enriching lives.

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Quadrant Practicality

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

From 2000 to 2019, Swensen outperformed 14 times. And plugging into Testfol.io which goes back further and comparing it to VBAIX. Swensen did better over the course of the backtest with a little more volatility and bigger drawdowns. From 2020 on, VBAIX outperformed four times.

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Stagflation Is Coming. All-Weather?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

We had a lost decade from 2000-2009 but there were several years that stocks went up kind of lot. In 2022, that blend was down 89 basis points so some drag (PRPFX did worse than BLNDX that year) but not problematic. Portfolio 3 is sort of close to what we blog about regularly.

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Skewing To An Unrealistically Good Result

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

If you're 85 and very fit but out of money, whether you outperformed from 1990 to 2000 means nothing. If you're 50 and only have 1/3 of what you should have by now, you're not going to outperform your way up to where you should be. A very volatile portfolio increases the likelihood of panicking or making some other behavioral mistake.

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A Panic Sale Waiting To Happen

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

10,000 invested on November 30, 2000 would have grown to $50,820 according to testfol.io. Having an allocation to something that moves like that makes sense in the context of constructing a diversified portfolio but going heavy into that sort of volatility is a panic sale waiting to happen. Going back 24 years, VBAIX compounded at 6.99%.

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Endowment Style & Selling Volatility

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Most of us of course lived through that from 2000 through to 2009. The S&P 500 hit 1500 in March 2000, then again in the fall of 2007 and then the third and final time in January, 2013. That's a long time for a broad based index to not make any progress.