Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question. The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for "September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94

Numbers

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2025

For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, July 14th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, July 15th -- 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3%

Retail

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 4.69 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 4.69 YoY in April.

Numbers

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.68 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.68 YoY in June.

Numbers

Calculated Risk

MAY 7, 2025

2000=100) from the downwardly revised March reading of 203.1. Owners and developers are navigating heightened economic and policy uncertainty, which likely bogged down much of this months planning activity. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. in April to 205.1

Healthcare

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a table showing single and multi-family housing starts and new home sales since 2000. I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Sales

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

The Russell 2000, an index of 2,000 small-cap companies widely used as a benchmark for U.S. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. Source: I nvestors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar ; November 21, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. small-cap stocks, rose 4.50

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

The interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes jumped from 4.68% to about 4.75% and the S&P 500 pulled back by over 1.5% (and the small cap index, the Russell 2000, was off almost 2%). However, investors werent too happy. All of which largely explains why longer-term interest rates have surged as much as they have.

Marketing

Discipline Funds

JULY 30, 2025

For example, tech stocks have generated 8% per year since January 2000. This tool is trying to predict where the next quarter’s Taylor Rule will be based on real-time economic data. Getting back on point though – this is always the problem with crazy high valuations/expectations.

Valuation

The Big Picture

JULY 1, 2025

Bachelor’s in economics and a BS in computer science from Wellesley in Boston and then an MBA from Harvard Business School. So it was Pascal then c plus plus, and then I took an economics class and that’s when the lights went off because it was a very mathematical field in many ways, but also with a link to the Rio economy.

Investments

Yardley Wealth Management

JULY 9, 2025

In 1916, the number of stocks represented by the DJIA increased to 20 and remained at that level until moving up to its current 30-count in 1928 to reflect the (soon-to-end) economic boom of the Roaring 1920s. The transformation of the companies in the DJIA reflects the broader shifts and developments in the U.S. billion Trade on a major U.S.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised September reading of 208.2. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Retreats 5% in October The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 5.3% in October to 197.2

Healthcare

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 19, 2025

From 2000 to 2019, Swensen outperformed 14 times. They talked about "four pillars" as being "economic growth (equities), income defensiveness (bonds), absolute return (alpha) and trend following (tail risk)." And plugging into Testfol.io which goes back further and comparing it to VBAIX. From 2020 on, VBAIX outperformed four times.

Risk Tolerance

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

Small caps were the big winner on the day, though, as the Russell 2000 gained nearly 6% for its best day since November 2022. Potential higher deficits, more spending, better economic growth and tariffs (which are potentially inflationary) were all cited as reasons for the move higher. In the end, the 10-year yield added 0.14

Marketing

Nationwide Financial

AUGUST 14, 2024

The size of credit spreads—or, more critically, how the spreads are changing—can give a sense of how investors see the prospects for economic growth, which naturally impacts company results. When economic prospects appear favorable, investors don’t demand as much yield over the yield of “safe” U.S.

Economics

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 21, 2025

The small cap Russell 2000 Index soared post-election in 2016 and the Russell 2000 Value Index was the top style box performer. Economic expectations over the next year have lifted from where they were pre-election, although were likely to get slower real growth than the 3.0% The baseline overall takeaway here is positive.

Marketing

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

Now, this wonderful section in this little bitty book that I’ve just finished, wonderful section on behavioral economics, terrific book by Daniel Kahneman, thinking Fast, thinking Slow. So what could you do to reduce the cost of behavioral economics? 00:46:08 So it does have an economic value. Don’t do it.

Investments

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 23, 2024

It upped its view of economic growth and said things looked pretty good on the economic front. Notably, there was no SCR in 2000 and 2008, not the best times for investors, and potentially a major warning that something wasnt right. The small cap index, the Russell 2000, fell 4.4%. The S&P 500 is only 3.6%

Marketing

Investing Caffeine

MAY 1, 2025

Issues are More Gray Than Black or White Journalists – most of whom have little investing experience – like to authoritatively paint economic issues in black-or-white terms. Or are these risks being overstated and distorted by media outlets that chase monetary gains? Weeks later, the bubble burst. Suboptimal timing once again.

Media

Mr. Money Mustache

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

For example, if the house brings in $2000 per month ($24,000 each year) and the sale price is $240,000, the next investor is buying a business with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, because 240k/24k=10. But if you manage to convince someone to hand over $480,000 for that same house, youve sold at a P/E of 20.

Marketing

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2025

And in my summer in between I worked for Mayor Daley in Chicago on economic development issues. So I have a recollection of the era following the.com ramp up and then the, the crash in 2000. We have 125 offices across the country, 2000 plus bankers across the country. 00:21:36 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really, really interesting.

Banking

Validea

JUNE 2, 2025

Each of these asset classes tends to perform well in different economic regimes, making the All Weather strategy a compelling option for long-term investors who prioritize consistency and downside protection. All Weather Portfolio: Asset Class Behavior Across Economic Regimes Asset Class Performs Well In Why It’s Included U.S.

Portfolio

The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

You, you wrote at the journal through the.com implosion as well as the whole runup to 2000 September 11th, the great financial Crisis. I did it in 2000, 2002. And I think it partly depends on the economic comfort in which you grew up. So, so the 20 years you spent at the Journal really is a fascinating couple of decades.

Investments

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 30, 2024

Verdict: Correct Our proprietary leading economic index (LEI) for the US never indicated a recession in 2023 or 2024. (We We did expect inflation to pull back, allowing the Fed to cut, but we also expected economic growth to stay strong (thus avoiding recessionary cuts). Two: Our Proprietary LEI suggests expansion continues.

Marketing

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 2, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | December 2nd, 2024 Solid Gains for Thanksgiving Week Stocks posted solid gains over a short and busy holiday week as investors parsed fresh economic data, comments on potential future trade policy, and a few Q3 reports from technology companies. One area of concern has been the economic impact of proposed tariffs.

Marketing

Investing Caffeine

DECEMBER 2, 2024

Combined, these negative side effects have the potential of significantly dampening economic growth. As you may recall, much of the 2022 decline was caused by the Fed slamming on the economic breaks with its fastest rate-hiking cycle in four decades (raising rates from 0.0% per year) because of the -20% hit on stocks during 2022.

Marketing

The Big Picture

APRIL 7, 2025

April 2nd revealed that the president and his economic team do not truly understand how global economies and trade work. How transparent are we communicating our intentions to our trading partners and citizens? The goals and the implementation methods have been, at best, opaque and confusing. Definitely clumsy, somewhat amateurish.

Taxes

The Big Picture

APRIL 8, 2025

But let’s start with your background in your career, applied mathematics and economics from Brown and then a Harvard MBA. So what I always say is that, you know what the Nobel Prize winners and behavioral economics will tell you is that emotionally losses hurt four to five times more than gains satisfy. Lisa Shalett : Not at all.

Asset Allocation

The Big Picture

JULY 15, 2025

But before we get to that, let’s start with Bachelor’s in economics from Hamilton, MBA from NYU. And a friend of mine who had gotten fired from this economic consulting firm, got a job at Chase Econometrics, IDC, and said, you have to come over here. Barry Ritholtz : I’m, I’m thrilled to have you.

Numbers

Carson Wealth

MARCH 7, 2025

The US is once again putting a self-imposed economic blockade around itself. At the same time, the Fed did cut rates back in 2019 when they thought elevated rates were hurting economic growth. A month ago, markets were pricing in just 1 cuttheres been a big shift since then as economic data has come in on the weaker side.

Economy

Carson Wealth

JUNE 16, 2025

Cole bombing was coincident with the tech bubble bursting in 2000. If you look at the major drawdowns, most take place during or near a recession, including 1956, 1973, and 2000-20001. Despite several Middle Eastern conflicts that did not lead to market drawdowns, there are some that had market and economic repercussions.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JUNE 23, 2025

Worries over the fallout from the Middle East conflict has traders on edge, while US economic data has been slowing some, and the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) is continuing to hold rates firm (which we discuss in more detail below).

Marketing

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 11, 2025

We’ve seen this a few times over the last 30 years—the internet boom in the 1990s, housing and financial innovation in the 2000s, and energy (including shale) in the early 2010s. From 1993 through 2000 (8 years), spending on computers and peripherals and software surged by 169%, an annualized pace of 13% per year.

Economy

Trade Brains

JULY 10, 2025

Edelweiss Capital Limited subsequently received a Category I Merchant Banker license from SEBI with effect from October 16, 2000. The name of Edelweiss Capital Limited was changed to ‘Edelweiss Financial Services Limited’ with effect from August 1, 2011. and EDEL.BO and Bloomberg: EDEL IS and EDEL IB.

Financial Services

The Big Picture

MAY 27, 2025

He began with a single restaurant, a single cookie store, and eventually parlayed that into a series of acquisitions, mergers, expansions, ultimately leading to the Panera Bread concept, which now has 2000 locations and does about six and a half billion dollars. It’s behavioral economics, behavioral finance. Louis, Missouri.

Food

The Big Picture

MARCH 17, 2025

Professor Stephanie Kelton teaches Public Policy and Economics at SUNY Stony Brook. You get a bachelor’s, a BA and a BS in Economics and Business at California Sacramento, then University of Cambridge, master’s in Philosophy and Economics, then a PhD in economics at the New School. I happened to pick that one.

Economy