Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

“Mortgage application activity was lower last week, with overall applications declining over two percent to their lowest level since 2000. The refinance index, however, fell five percent to its lowest level since November 2000 , driven by a six percent drop in conventional refinance applications.”

Economy 348

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 348

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a table showing single and multi-family housing starts and new home sales since 2000. I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Sales 147

Sales Investments Investing Commission 147

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MARCH 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

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AUGUST 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised June reading of 200.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands Another 8% in July The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 7.9% in July to 216.3 and institutional planning expanded 11.1%.

Healthcare 331

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 331

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DECEMBER 9, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Advances In November The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 3.8% (2000=100) in November to 207.2 from the revised October reading of 199.6. The rate of increase in the DMI, however, has steadied over the month.

Healthcare 358

Healthcare Education Planning Government 358

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JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

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AUGUST 3, 2022

percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000. Treasury yields dropped as a result, as investors continue to expect a weaker macroeconomic environment in the coming months.

Economics 359

Economics Marketing Marketing 359

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

sherwood.news) China's stock market is on board with economic stimulus. optimisticallie.com) 42% of the Russell 2000 companies have negative earnings. Markets The China stock market rally is very broad. axios.com) The China stock market rally has gotten U.S. ETF investor attention.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Financial Advice Economy Media 261

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SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

Recent economic data will likely prevent any significant decline in mortgage rates in the near term, but the strong job market depicted in the August data should support housing demand. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Economy 353

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 353

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NOVEMBER 8, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2.

Healthcare 313

Healthcare Education Planning Numbers 313

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MARCH 7, 2023

2000=100) from the revised January reading of 199.3. Owners and developers tend to put projects into planning until well after economic conditions weaken. Therefore, the anticipated mild economic growth in 2023 could cause the DMI to moderate over the year, but it is unlikely to fall below historical norms.” in February to 203.0

Healthcare 276

Healthcare Economics Planning Education 276

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AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised July reading of 214.2. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises 3% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 2.9% in August to 220.4 and institutional planning improved 5.7%.

Healthcare 300

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 300

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MAY 9, 2023

2000=100) from the revised March reading of 190.6. On par with our expectations, the Dodge Momentum Index continued to recede in April, due to declining economic conditions and ongoing banking uncertainty.” Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. in April to 180.9

Healthcare 259

Healthcare Economics Planning Education 259

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JULY 27, 2022

“Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since February 2000. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

Economics 246

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 246

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AUGUST 24, 2022

The average purchase loan size continued to trend lower, as purchase activity at the high end of the market is weakening,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. percent – the highest in nearly a month.

Government 353

Government Economics Marketing Marketing 353

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised May reading of 179.9. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Gained 10% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 10.4% in June to 198.6 and institutional planning ticked up 0.2%.

Healthcare 278

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 278

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APRIL 8, 2024

2000=100) from the revised February reading of 179.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Fell 9% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 8.6% in March to 164.0 Over the month, commercial planning fell 3.2%

Education 305

Education Planning Accounting Economics 305

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OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

2000=100) from the revised July reading of 190.3. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Drops 6.5% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 6.5% in August to 178.0

Healthcare 304

Healthcare Planning Education Economics 304

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MARCH 1, 2023

Data on inflation, employment, and economic activity have signaled that inflation may not be cooling as quickly as anticipated, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.” Other than the lows in Q4 of 2022 and early this year, the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000.

Accounting 356

Accounting Economics Marketing Marketing 356

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MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

“Purchase applications increased for the first time after six weeks of declines but remained close to 2015 lows, as homebuyers remained sidelined by higher rates and ongoing economic uncertainty. Refinances continued to fall, with the index hitting its lowest level since August 2000.”. percent from 7.06

Economics 246

Economics 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 5, 2022

Net absorption rose in June and July, in line with the return to office sentiment, but that trend was short-lived as economic uncertainties pressured the sector’s fundamentals. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000.

Retail 314

Retail Economics Assets Planning 314

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NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. 1:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market, At the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W.,

Manufacturing 313

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 313

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MAY 25, 2024

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). 9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Manufacturing 280

Manufacturing Sales Banking Economics 280

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OCTOBER 6, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 in September.

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2022

percent – which is essentially double what it was a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit the six percent mark for the first time since 2008 – rising to 6.01

Government 319

Government Economics Marketing Marketing 319

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2023

2000=100) from the revised February reading of 201.0. We are predicting the Dodge Momentum Index to work its way back to historical norms throughout 2023, concurrent with weaker economic conditions,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. in March to 183.7

Healthcare 257

Healthcare Banking Education Planning 257

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SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2023

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Wraps up 2022 with December Growth The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 6.6% (2000=100) in December to 222.2 from the revised November reading of 208.3.

Healthcare 264

Healthcare Education Retail Planning 264

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NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

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DECEMBER 8, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. We call these eras Secular Bull Markets. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 327

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 327

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

He points out the ramifications when society suffer from low confidence in both politics and economics can be very significant. Over his 32-year tenure, the fund has beaten 100% of peers, and outperformed the Russell 2000 benchmark by 3.49% annually, and has more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500.

Economy 281

Economy Banking Economics Assets 281