Sat.Jan 25, 2025 - Fri.Jan 31, 2025

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Market Timing vs. Time in the Market

Zoe Financial

Market Timing vs. Time in the Market Updated January 28th, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team Though these terms may sound similar, market timing is not the same as time in the market. What do these mean, and which is a sounder investment strategy? Lets take a poll. Raise your hand if youve ever heard someone brag about how they bought Amazon stock right before its share price doubled.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

Numbers 265
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (February 1–2)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that following the change of administration (and a new incoming chair of the SEC), the Investment Adviser Association is seeking to find ways to help RIAs (particularly smaller firms) manage the compliance responsibilities they face.

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Personal finance links: household economics

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Dan Lefkovitz talk with John Rekenthaler about his long career writing about investing. (morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff on how much money you need to retire. (peterlazaroff.com) Family Every decision we make has trade-offs: the case for staying home to care for small children. (readthejointaccount.com) When are you children mature enough to discuss estate issues?

Economics 170
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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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The Value of Client Communication

Wealth Management

Clearly explaining the technical aspects of the planners proposals aids in the successful implementation of estate plans.

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.8% Annual Gain in November 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

Banking 235

More Trending

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Tuesday links: your precious attention

Abnormal Returns

Surprises Stuff happens every year that no one foresaw. (ritholtz.com) How markets deal with surprises. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Yesterday shows how dependent the stock market is on the AI theme. (herbgreenberg.com) Strategy Your allocation (or not) to international stocks matters, but not a lot. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Investing success is more about temperament than intelligence.

Media 159
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Investors File Claim Against Fidelity Over Lax Supervision of RIA

Wealth Management

Advisor Thomas Chadwick allegedly lost clients $11.1 million, and several of them blame Fidelity's lack of supervision, according to a statement filed with FINRA.

Clients 273
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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its National Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.54% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in December. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in December, up from up 3.9% YoY in November.

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Nine Lessons the Market Taught in 2024

Alpha Architect

In 2024 investors were provided with nine lessons. Many of them are repeats from prior years. Unfortunately, too many investors fail to learn themthey keep making the same errors. Nine Lessons the Market Taught in 2024 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Marketing 113
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Research links: optimizing for costs

Abnormal Returns

Lottery-like behavior Does legal sports betting shift manager risk profiles? (papers.ssrn.com) Does high inflation increase gambling like behavior? (papers.ssrn.com) Earnings How highly covered stocks react post-earnings announcement. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Sell-side analysts do help in assessing earnings reports. (papers.ssrn.com) Why investors shouldn't take growth guidance at face value.

Valuation 146
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Study: Bitcoin Allocations Above 2% Add Risk to Portfolios

Wealth Management

A study by Wilshire Indexes found that while higher allocations brought greater risk-adjusted returns, they also significantly increased risk concentration.

Portfolio 269
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Personal Income increased 0.4% in December; Spending increased 0.7%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)personal income less personal current taxesincreased $79.7 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $133.6 billion (0.7 percent).

Food 162
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The Daily Show: Wage Against the Machine

The Big Picture

LOL Me in a suit and tie! About a decade ago, one of my Bloomberg columns helped kick off a debate about minimum wages and large, for-profit companies using the taxpayer to subsidize their payrolls. This led to much debate, including some embarrassing revelations for Wal-Mart and especially McDonald’s. Ultimately, it led to an appearance on The Daily Show, where I got to spend the better part of the day shooting a remote segment with the delightful Samantha Bee.

Media 113
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Friday links: systems vs. tactics

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Timing the market requires getting two decision right. (awealthofcommonsense.com) On the benefits of embracing failure. (theatlantic.com) Trading Questions remain about how all-day stock trading would work. (on.ft.com) Kalshi is moving to make its contracts available more widely. (nytimes.com) Apple Services revenue keeps growing at Apple ($AAPL).

Economy 146
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Morgan Stanley Snags $700M Merrill Advisor Group

Wealth Management

The Zelin Group and its five advisors made the move after the lead partner, Jonathan Zelin, had been with Merrill for more than seven years.

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Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.8% year-over-year in November Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). November closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data.

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The Implications of an Aged Housing Stock

Fortune Financial

U.S. housing is in an interesting spot. The housing stock is increasingly aged, housing starts are only just beginning to catch up with the long-term average, and mortgage rates are much higher than they have been for years, making homeowners (some 40% of whom now own their homes outright*) reluctant to sell. These factors combine to make for an interesting setup for all sorts of housing-related construction and services as the housing market works to find an equilibrium.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Is This a Bubble?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Financial markets are always interesting in the information age because the narratives change even faster than Ali Larter’s mood swings at a family meal in Landman.1 Two years ago everyone was convinced we were going into a recession. It was the most over-forecasted recession of all-time that never happened. Now no one thinks a recession is a possibility and the worries have shifted to concerns about a speculative b.

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The Best and Worst States to Retire in 2025

Wealth Management

Florida is the best state to retire in in 2025. But after that, states out West like Colorado and Wyoming rank high for retirement.

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MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Delinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2024 Delinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real estate finance (CREF) Loan Performance Survey. " The delinquency rate for commercial mortgages increased during the final three months of 2024 , with increases across most capital sources and property types, said Mike Frata

Retail 147
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Language matters: Increase client retention and income

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Amy Wakem During the 20 years of being a financial advisor, my agency has gone through a lot of transitions. And I’ve been asked a few times, At what point did your numbers start becoming consistent and you were making MDRT regularly? Our production became more consistent when we started becoming deliberate with the words we use when interacting with prospects or clients.

Clients 103
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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Member Spotlight: Jesus Lopez Soto - Empowering Families, Building Futures

NAIFA Advisor Today

Jesus U. Lopez Sotos journey into the financial services industry began with a simple goal: to find a work-from-home opportunity for his pregnant wife. Initially, he saw it as a way for her to earn extra income. However, after being introduced to the industry by a coworker and friend, Jesus realized that this was not just a job for his wifeit was an opportunity for him to build a meaningful career as well.

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10 Investment Must Reads for This Week (Jan. 28, 2025)

Wealth Management

Ray Dalio warned that the runup in values of AI-tied firms is a reminder of dotcom bubble excesses, reports the Financial Times. Single-stock ETFs magnified some of the losses in markets amid the DeepSeek fallout, according to etf.com. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

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FOMC Statement: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Calculated Risk

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.

Economics 162
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Margin of Too Much Safety

A Wealth of Common Sense

Institutional investors made a huge push into hedge funds following the bursting of the dot-com bubble. It was the perfect environment because you had a situation where expensive stocks crashed while cheap stocks were a wonderful hedge. Going long cheap and short expensive allowed them to win in both directions.1 The S&P 500 got clobbered so it wasn’t hard to sell hedge funds to all of the pensions, endowments a.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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When clients don’t understand your value

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Alain Quennec, CFP, CIM Fifteen years ago, a client and I were cycling when he introduced me to one of his friends. He said, Hi, this is Al Quennec. The friend said, Who is Al to you? He said, Oh, hes my money guy. My heart fell right away because this client didnt understand the breadth of the work and complex financial planning we had done for him in the previous five or 10 years.

Clients 69
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Retail Alts Fundraising Exceeded Expectations in 2024

Wealth Management

The volume of fundraising for alternative investment vehicles through the retail channel reached $122 billion, reports Robert A. Stanger & Co.

Retail 264
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 24, 2025. This weeks results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Sales 147
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Some Things I’m Never Going To Do

A Wealth of Common Sense

A list of things I never plan on doing: I will never go all in or all out with my portfolio.I’m never going to take my entire portfolio to cash because I’m worried about a crash or some terrible economic outcome. Sure, I hold the majority of my investment portfolio in stocks but it’s diversified across geography, market cap and strategy.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?