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What do the Great Depression, the Great Financial Crisis, the Stagflationary 1970s, and the upcoming 10-years have in common? If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot. At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. ICYMI: David Kostin and his team of strategists see a 72% chance the S&P 500 underperforms Treasuries, and a 33% possibility equities return less than inflation.
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.7% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 34.0%), and down 21.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.6%).
Trend following Why trend following is unique. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) If you want trend following returns just do trend following. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Research Want small cap exposure? Go microcap. (mailchi.mp) What ideal diversification looks like. (caia.org) AI is becoming table stakes for hedge funds. (alphaarchitect.com) European investors still prefer dividends over buybacks.
The office of the CFO is rapidly evolving, with more and more demands being placed upon the finance and accounting team each year. Join us in this webinar, where we share 8 things to NOT do when it comes to helping the CFO office advance in supporting the business. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how best to support an organization's finance leadership.
This week, we speak with Toto Wolff , Team Principal & CEO of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team. Prior to joining Mercedes, Toto spent time in the investment world, founding his own company Marchfifteen in 1998 and Marchsixteen in 2004. In 2009 Toto combined his passion for racing and business by investing in the Williams F1 Team. He eventually came to be the team’s Executive Director, helping to lead them toward their first win at the Spanish Grand Prix in eight years.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Podcasts Frazer Rice talks RIA marketing with Richard Heft, President of EXT Marketing. (frazerrice.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Ben Haas about how to conduct client 're-discovery' meetings. (podcasts.apple.com) Josh Brown and Michael Kitces talk about how a recent CFP ad campaign went wrong. (youtube.com) The biz Schwab Advisor Solutions will look to boost revenue, just not through custody fees.
While the financial advice industry has transformed in many ways over the past several decades, one aspect that has remained relatively constant is the use of the Assets Under Management (AUM) fee model as a common way for many advisors to get paid. Though in practice, while a 1% AUM fee is a common 'starting point' in the industry, the actual fee structure can vary based on the firm's approach; for example, some firms may reduce the fee for high-net-worth clients, or charge an additional fee fo
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 18, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant
Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.
Markets Degeneracy has become a fixture of the current environment. (howardlindzon.com) The stock market's biggest winners started out as small caps. (freedomdaysolutions.com) Strategy How often do outlier 10-year forecasts turn out? (ritholtz.com) Why optimism makes sense over the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Cash was never meant to be a long-term investment.
At The Money: BlackRock on Building a Bond Ladder (October 23, 2024) Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Karen Veraa is a Fixed Income Product Strategist within BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Group focusing on iShares fixed-income ETFs. She supports iShares clients, generates content on fixed-income markets and ETFs, develops new fixed-income iShares ETF strategies, and partners with the iShares team on product delivery.
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 October The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. 13-19 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 70.1% (+1.6) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$169.85 (+2.5%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$119.01 (+4.2%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.
Companies Google's ($GOOGL) big businesses are in a slow, decline. (wheresyoured.at) Starbucks' ($SBUX) new CEO is clearing the decks. (bloomberg.com) Walmart ($WMT) is expanding home delivery of pharmaceuticals. (fastcompany.com) Finance Howard Marks thinks nearly every investor should look at private debt. (on.ft.com) Banks are increasingly backing capital call loans.
We also answered questions about how to write engaging content, defining your audience when writing, how to balance stories vs. numbers in a presentation and more. Further Reading: 50 Ways the World is Getting Better 1The other choices were What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars and The Money Game. The post Am I a Permabull? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense.
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.5% year-over-year compared to September 2023. This was the thirty-seventh consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.
The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.
Strategy Why we diversify. (awealthofcommonsense.com) On the importance of portfolio rebalancing. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) Pessimists persist because we forget their poor predictions. (whitecoatinvestor.com) Crypto Stablecoins are emerging as the killer use case. (theblock.co) Why the identify of Satoshi matters. (bloomberg.com) The blockchain is coming for real estate.
There are certain financial publications that you can just tell have a European bent to them. They use words with an extra “u” like favourite, glamour, or colour. They use cheque instead of check. And per cent has a space for some reason. The Financial Times and The Economist come to mind. The Economist has a new special report with a series of stories about how America is the envy of the world, economically s.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.
Earlier on Abnormal Returns Celebrating our nineteenth blogiversary. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Five lessons from five great investing books. (dariusforoux.com) Stock market returns are rarely average. (tker.co) Diversification is more than just owning a lot of stocks. (fortunefinancialadvisors.com) Why you can't extrapolate market returns.
The U.S. stock market has been on fire of late. But it doesn’t feel like we’ve entered the euphoric phase of investor psychology just yet. In fact, many prognosticators have been lowering expectations. Goldman Sachs put out a research piece that posits the S&P 500 could return just 3% annualized over the next 10 years (just 1% after inflation): These are their baseline assumptions and they offer a range o.
Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales. At the bottom of this post is a graph showing the correlation between October seasonal hiring and holiday retail sales. Here is a graph of retail hiring for previous years based on the BLS employment report: Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.
Nitrogen executives showed off platform updates that detail equity exposure and use artificial intelligence to convert client statements into actionable portfolios.
Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste
Retiring abroad can be a dream come true for many Americans, offering the opportunity to explore new cultures, enjoy different climates, and potentially stretch retirement savings. But moving to a new country involves significant financial planning. If you’re considering making the leap, there are key financial considerations you need to weigh before you make this major life change.
Earlier this week I wrote about how America is the envy of the world.1 There was plenty of pushback. Many Europeans pointed out we have plenty of other problems plus a far worse safety net than they do. Fair enough. There were also a lot of comments on inequality, even though I addressed that in the piece. It is worth noting research shows 40% of the rise in income inequality has been undone since 2020.
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slid 1.0% in September Existing-home sales drew back in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three out of four major U.S. regions registered sales declines while the West experienced a sales bounce. Year-over-year, sales fell in three regions but grew in the West. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 1.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted ann
Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.
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