Sat.Dec 24, 2022 - Fri.Dec 30, 2022

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SECURE 2.0 Act Aims to Increase Retirement Savings for Americans

Carson Wealth

By Jamie Hopkins, Managing Partner, Wealth Solutions. The SECURE 2.0 Act has passed, making it the largest retirement legislation since the original Secure Act hit in the late 2019. As 55% of Americans say they don’t have enough saved for retirement, this bipartisan legislation primarily seeks to make it easier to contribute to retirement plans and use those funds appropriately for their needs in retirement.

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History of Industries Listed on S&P 500

The Big Picture

Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.

Economy 304
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Tuesday links: the tech set

Abnormal Returns

Markets The markets were bad in 2022, but things could always be worse. (humbledollar.com) Commodity returns stood out in 2022. (capitalspectator.com) A look at the best charts of 2022. (topdowncharts.substack.com) Strategy There is a big difference between forecasting stock and bond returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Why you need to look at base rates when forecasting stock returns.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Dec 31-Jan 1)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the passage of “SECURE Act 2.0” has brought a wide range of changes to the world of retirement planning. And given the variety of planning opportunities created by the legislation – from the raising of the beginning age for RMDs to the ability to transfer funds from 529 plans to Roth IRAs – advisors have a significant opportunity t

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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2023 Investment Outlook (Video)

Pragmatic Capitalism

Here is our 2023 investment outlook. I did this a little differently this year by providing a scenario analysis with different probability distributions.

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Thursday links: failing utterly

Abnormal Returns

Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. (capitalspectator.com) The stock market is not a Ponzi scheme. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. (crossingwallstreet.com) Companies Inside the Southwest Airlines ($LUV) meltdown. (wsj.com) Cal-Maine Foods ($CALM) stock rode higher egg prices all year, until today.

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2022 Highlights — The Top 22 Nerd’s Eye View Blog Posts You Might Have Missed

Nerd's Eye View

As 2022 comes to a close, I am once again so thankful to all of you, the ever-growing number of readers who continue to regularly visit this Nerd’s Eye View Blog (and share the content with your friends and colleagues, which we greatly appreciate!). This year has been challenging for many financial advisors as they help their clients (and their own firms!

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Wishing you all a happy holiday season and a bright new year. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and don’t forget to take some time away from the screen. Especially this year! I’ll be headed down to South Florida as I usually do for the last week of the year. It’s one of the few family traditions we have that the kids are still excited about now that they’re both teenagers.

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Happy Merry!

The Big Picture

Art Cashin is a Wall Street treasure, and his annual shares are always appreciated. This is his December 23rd commentary. Happy Merry! ‘Tis two days before Christmas. and at each brokerage house. The only thing stirring. was the click of a mouse. Down on the Exchange. the tape inches along. Brokers bargained and traded. as they hummed an old song. With supply chain disruptions. from iPhones through socks.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Personal finance links: ever increasing needs

Abnormal Returns

Personal finance Nobody knows what is going to happen in the stock market next year. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Three ways to simplify your portfolio in 2023. (morningstar.com) Some common personal finance misunderstandings including 'Extending your tax return filing doesn’t extend your ability to pay.' (flowfp.com) The more you know about money, the less you need to think about it.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 102: Reflecting On The Journey Of Building A Career And Business

Nerd's Eye View

For many seasoned financial advisors, the road toward building a career and a business can be challenging and rewarding. And even though most advisors would agree that the road to success involves many years of hard work and sacrifice, each advisor’s path to ultimate success can consist of massively different experiences. In our 102nd episode of Kitces & Carl, Michael Kitces and client communication expert Carl Richards discuss the challenges they have each faced in their decades-long

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 63% YoY; New Listings Down 6% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. For the week ending December 24th, active inventory was up 63.1% year-over-year (YoY), up from 58.1% YoY last week. New listings were down 5.7% YoY , the smallest YoY decrease since July. This small YoY decrease in new listings might be related to the holidays. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.

Marketing 142
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MiB: Charlie Ellis on Vanguard’s Rules of Investing

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Charlie Ellis, Chair of the Yale Endowment, Vanguard Board member, and founder of Greenwich Associates. In addition to that CV, Ellis is is the author of 19 books, including the investment classic Winning the Loser’s Game. His most recent book is Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets From the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Research links: quick alpha

Abnormal Returns

Research A look at the trade-offs of rebalancing frequency. (corporate.vanguard.com) How trend following works during different market regimes. (quantpedia.com) Why ESG portfolios need to be optimized. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) A rave review for Eric Balchunas' book "The Bogle Effect." (alphaarchitect.com).

Portfolio 204
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Kitces & Carl Ep 102: Reflecting On The Journey Of Building A Career And Business

Nerd's Eye View

For many seasoned financial advisors, the road toward building a career and a business can be challenging and rewarding. And even though most advisors would agree that the road to success involves many years of hard work and sacrifice, each advisor’s path to ultimate success can consist of massively different experiences. In our 102nd episode of Kitces & Carl, Michael Kitces and client communication expert Carl Richards discuss the challenges they have each faced in their decades-long

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A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

Calculated Risk

Two key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010

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Consensus

The Irrelevant Investor

A week ago I was in a room with a hundred people and asked the following question: How many of you think the S&P 500 takes out its October low? At least 80% of the people raised their hands. I then asked, how many of you think we’re in a recession or will be in 2023? Everyone who had their hand raised for the first question kept it in the air for the second.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Wednesday links: a gambling instinct

Abnormal Returns

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' (awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. (morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.' (safalniveshak.com) 11 ideas that stuck from 2022 including the 'power of quitting.

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Some Stuff That (Probably) Won’t Happen in 2023

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’ve been getting a lot of pundit outlook pieces for 2023 in my inbox these past few weeks. The onset of a new year is a time for making lists of predictions, surprises and black swan possibilities. There are few sure things when it comes to the markets so I don’t put a lot of stock into predictions. You could say the stock market will open at 9:30 am est and close at 4 pm est during regular market hours but t.

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2022 Year-in-Review: CRE's 11 Most Important Stories

Wealth Management

A strong start to 2022 marked by robust fundamentals and record levels of investment sales activity transitioned into a second half marked by uncertainty, leaving commercial real estate on unsteady footing heading into 2023.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles It is painful to be wrong in public. (By Mario Gabriele) Wisdom is knowing the right thing to do at the right time. (By Dave Nadig) If a bubble is a good idea gone too far, the $10tn global market for private investing in everything from debt to companies to real estate may be one. (By Ruchir Sharma) There are three realistic scenarios for the U.S. economy from here (By Ben Carlson) Podcasts We hold 95% of the th.

Economy 119
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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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Adviser links: fee increases

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks setting boundaries with Emily Rassam who is the Senior Financial Planner for Archer Investment Management. (kitces.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak discuss the recent "The State of Retirement Income" report. (morningstar.com) Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese talk with Phil Pearlman about the connection between health and wealth planning.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak; Houses are the least “affordable” since 1982 when 30-year mortgage rates were over 14% Excerpt: It has been over 16 years since the bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller released Tuesday , the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 62% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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World Stock Market Timings in Indian Standard Time (IST)

Trade Brains

World stock market timings : The markets around the world have evolved to become soo accessible that one can now participate in various stock exchanges around the globe. A stock exchange is a market where shares of companies are purchased and sold. The ‘stock exchange timings’ are the timings these exchanges are open and investors can trade shares.

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The Best Books I Read in 2022

A Wealth of Common Sense

When I was younger and didn’t know anything the majority of my reading was of the non-fiction variety. I don’t read nearly as much as I did in the past but when I do it tends to be more fiction than non-fiction these days. It could be the fact that podcasts, blogs, opinion writers and such have made non-fiction books less useful. But I’m always more impressed with the creativity involved in crafting cha.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site How market shocks affect our perceptions of risk. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week What it means when you buy your pants at Costco ($COST). (radreads.co) Five behavioral tricks for long-term investors including 'Have a small side account.' (blog.validea.com) The best strategy is often doing nothing. (onveston.substack.com) It's hard to blow up your investment account without using leverage.

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Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

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How to Leverage Tax-Advantaged Accounts in 2023

Carson Wealth

Kevin Oleszewski , CFP ® , MST, EA, Senior Wealth Planner . As you’re setting your new year’s goals, one that should top everyone’s list is increasing your savings. After all, we’ve recently seen inflation at work, reminding us that even everyday essentials can bust budgets if we’re not adequately prepared for the jolt. .