Mish Talk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

Inept Climate Policy Germany's decision to scrap its nuclear reactors before having replacement energy is in play. In April, then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson bragged his Energy Security Strategy would "bring clean, affordable, secure power to the people for generations to come." In the US, California marches on with the blessing of president Biden, preposterous targets for electric cars without having the faintest idea where the minerals and mining for those batteries will come from.

Economics 363

Economics Banking Economy Portfolio 363

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 23, 2022

A recession so contrived and man-made that every economist, politician, business owner, college student, CEO, rapper and professional athlete has been able to see it coming in real-time for months and months… Take a picture, you may never see anything so obviously about to happen ever again. A child could have foreseen it. At a certain point, a person who is charge of price stability should probably look in the mirr.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 14, 2022

The First Totally Honest Stock Market Story. FRIDAY’S MARKETS. By Vinnie Foster Wynans III. Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal. The market rallied early this morning for reasons nobody understands and nobody predicted. CNBC analysts confidently asserted it had something to do with the Senegalese money supply but others pointed to revised monthly figures showing a poor tuna haul off the Peruvian coast.

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Marketing Marketing Financial Services Assets 333

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 25, 2022

Don’t fight the Fed used to be a positive slogan. That’s not the case anymore. If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. How do I know this? Because Fed officials are literally telling us this every time they speak.

Economy 145

Economy Marketing Marketing 145

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Business operations are getting increasingly complex, shareholders are demanding more, and your auditors are breathing down your neck like never before. In this high-pressure environment, it’s important to remember that reconciliation activity is your last line of defense against financial fraud and errors. Insisting on a manual process to handle month-end reconciliations is a risky endeavor that places an undue burden on your accounting team.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single?family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

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Sales 145

Mish Talk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

30 year fixed mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage Rates Are Now Over 7%, But It's Complicated Mortgage News Daily reports Yes, Mortgage Rates Are Now Over 7%, But It's Complicated For our purposes today, we're mainly focused on the presence of points and, to a lesser extent, the variations between lenders. As always, any rate you see in a major rate index or survey will assume essentially no "hits" (no upward adjustments to the rate or the upfront costs due to the particular

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Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 313

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

All of the value creation for investors comes from the actions they take in falling markets, not rising ones. If you’re not yet in retirement and not finished putting money into your retirement accounts, every 5% the market falls is an increased opportunity for you to buy things that will be worth much more in the future when you eventually sell them.

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Retirement Accounting Marketing Marketing 327

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

So, it was just Labor Day Weekend, and while we all should be out NOT laboring, I spent part of the long holiday weekend thinking about a few of my favorite FRED charts. Rather than include all of my favorites, I set a challenge for myself: Limit the list to the three most telling charts: U3 Unemployment Rate : When has unemployment been lower than today?

Economy 322

Economy Insurance Marketing Marketing 322

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 23, 2022

Earlier this week I posted a chart showing how volatile the stock market has been this year: Things have gotten even more volatile since then. This post prompted the following response from someone on Twitter experiencing their first bear market: Yes, there is precedent for this. These are all of the bear markets since World War II: If anything, it’s surprising the current iteration isn’t down more.

Marketing 144

Marketing Marketing 144

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession).

Economy 145

Economy Sales Economics Investing 145

The Irrelevant Investor

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

One of these things is not like the others. A 60/40 portfolio just experienced the worst eight-month stretch to start a year going back to the inception of the Barclay’s aggregate bond index in 1976. One year ago the 10-year rate was 1.32%. It’s 3.35% today. The last time it experienced a 12-month increase that large was in January 2000!

Portfolio 144

Portfolio 144

Mish Talk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

Al Gore and John Kerry image from Tweet below. World Bank Goals The World Bank has two ambitious goals neither of which is climate change. End extreme poverty within a generation Boost shared prosperity Goal number one will not happen, even within several generations. Goal number two is ambiguous enough that it might. Neither of those goals has anything to do with climate change but Al Gore and John Kerry want to change that.

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Banking Numbers Government Investing 312

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 25, 2022

Okay don’t press the <Buy> because of this but maybe reconsider pressing the <Sell> button if you haven’t already… The AAII sentiment poll hit 60% Bears this week. History says the more pessimistic the investor class becomes, the better the prospective returns look six months out. The way I think about this is that the only thing that could make investors really bearish is a big sell-off in t.

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Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

Management

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

One of the things we know about inflation expectations is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell relies heavily on them. He thinks about expectations, gives speeches on them, and uses the data series when enacting Federal Reserve policies to combat inflation. The problem is that all consumer surveys (including inflation expectations) are deeply problematic.

Risk Tolerance 314

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Economics Banking 314

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

According to Bill Bryson, the visible universe is a million million million million miles across. That’s a 1 with 24 zeroes after it (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000). That sounds rather large. But the universe beyond what we can see is even harder to comprehend: The number of light years to the edge of this larger, unseen universe would be written not “with ten zeroes, not even with a hundred, but with million.

Numbers 145

Numbers 145

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

Active inventory increased for the 2nd consecutive week, increasing 0.9% last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years: 2022: +4.9K 2021: -3.7K 2020: -5.2K 2019: -0.3K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 131% since then. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 28.7% year-over-year.

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The Irrelevant Investor

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts and Tropical Brothers: See here for YCharts September Fund Flow Report See here for tropical gear, free shipping, and sunglass straps on all orders On today’s show we discuss: Weekly market commentary via BlackRock Fed hikes could add $2.1 trillion to deficits 14 charts that explain inflation Full Stack Economics on leaning out of a career to support a signifi.

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Economics Marketing Marketing 139

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

Clients

Mish Talk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

GDPNow data from Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish. GDPNow Plunge Please consider the September 15 update to the GDPNow Forecast for Q3 GDP. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.3 percent on September 9. After this week's releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of

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Retail Sales Economy Numbers 305

Wealthfront

SEPTEMBER 3, 2022

Today we announced that together with UBS we decided to terminate our pending acquisition and will instead remain an independent company. We are continuing to explore ways to work together in a partnership and UBS has given us $69.7 million in financing at a $1.4 billion valuation. I am incredibly excited about Wealthfront’s path forward […]. The post Our Plans to Remain an Independent Company appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.

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Planning Valuation 139

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

The traditional finance conference was murdered this week. A stake was driven through its heart by innovators tired of the old ways. It was, to be fair, a mercy killing. Living in the past, running on inertia, nobody bothered to tell the patient that it was time to say your goodbyes before we pull the plug. The industry had forgotten why it even exists: To serve an audience that wants to get out of the office, hang with its peers, and learn how to be better at what it does.

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Financial Advisor Financial Planning Financial Advice Food 315

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 11, 2022

Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 a number of macro doom-and-gloomers began predicting a collapse of the U.S. dollar. The Fed was “printing” trillions of dollars. Interest rates had never been that low before. It was an appealing narrative if you were someone stuck in the negative feedback loop of the biggest economic crash since the Great Depression.

Economics 145

Economics Numbers 145

Speaker: Rita Keller - President of Keller Advisors, LLC

You've worked diligently and have built a glowing reputation grounded in your excellent skills in tax, accounting, and auditing. You're known as the “go-to” person when a client is faced with tax and financial decisions. You have a very successful firm -- but that’s not enough. Profession leaders are urging you to diversify your financial skills and distance yourself from compliance work.

Consulting

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 15, 2022

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Boring Day For Rates, But Not "Good" Boring The mortgage market is no stranger to excitement in 2022. Unfortunately, it hasn't been the good kind of excitement. That's especially true of the past few weeks as rates pushed back up to long term highs. After yesterday's upside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (a key inflation report that frequently causes volatility in markets), rates surged up to match the highest levels in 14 years.

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing 145

The Irrelevant Investor

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

“Did you like it?” The answer to one of the most common questions in the world is not just about whether you liked the thing in question. Your response will depend on reality exceeding or falling short of expectations. How did you like it relative to how you thought you would like it? One of my colleagues told me he enjoyed the new Jurassic Park movie and I absolutely could not believe it.

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Mish Talk

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Image from Smithsonian article below. EPA Declared That Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral In 2018, the EPA Declared That Burning Wood Is Carbon Neutral. Yesterday [April 23, 2018], the Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would begin to count the burning of "forest biomass"—a.k.a. wood—as carbon neutral. The change will classify burning of wood pellets a renewable energy similar to solar or wind power.

Economy 295

Economy Economics Accounting Transportation 295

Meb Faber Research

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

Episode #445: Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs – Why ESG May Make This Commodity Supercycle Different From Past Cycles Guest: Jeff Currie is Goldman Sachs’ global head of Commodities Research. Date Recorded: 9/16/2022 | Run-Time: 47:04 Summary: In today’s episode, Jeff shares why he called for a commodity supercycle almost two years ago and where […].

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