The Big Picture
MARCH 16, 2023
Depositors heaved a sigh of relief when news broke Sunday that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was going to make whole all of the accounts held at Silicon Valley Bank. Having full access to bank accounts meant those tech start-ups that make up much of SVB’s depositors would be able to make their weekly payrolls. They were the lucky ones: SVB’s equity investors were wiped out and senior bank management was fired.
The Reformed Broker
MARCH 12, 2023
I feel pretty confident in making this call, and I don’t make market calls very often: We have seen the top for 2-year Treasury yields. It’s not going any higher than it’s been because there’s no reason for it to. Financial conditions are now contracting hard due in part to the events of this week but also because monetary policy operates on a lag – and the first Fed Funds hike of the cycle.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 21, 2023
John Marsden grew up in a wealthy family. He was a brilliant student who went to Harvard, graduated from law school and eventually fulfilled his dream of becoming a successful lawyer. John got married in his 30s and had children. Leo DeMarco also went to Harvard where he dreamed of becoming a famous writer. But after college he became a high school teacher and loved working with his students so much that his dream never c.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 16, 2023
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,450,000. This is 9.8 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,321,000, but is 18.4 percent below the February 2022 rate of 1,777,000. Single‐family housing starts in February were at a rate of 830,000; this is 1.1 percent above the revised January figure of 821,000.
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Discipline Funds
MARCH 10, 2023
One of the themes I’ve been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. What I mean by that is that we’re currently navigating the economic bust portion of the cycle where inflation is a falling risk and credit deflation risk arises, in large part, because the Fed has reacted so quickly to bring inflation in.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
MARCH 8, 2023
I love the idea of convergence — those rare times when multiple stories about very different issues seem to all land on the same “Grand Truth,” albeit from very different perspectives. Yesterday brought just such a three-part convergence into focus. It’s about money and happiness, which is very much the intersection of where I spend much of my time: Capital Markets , and Behavioral Finance.
The Reformed Broker
MARCH 27, 2023
This is it. The only chart you need to concern yourself with now if you’re trying to figure out where the economy is heading. Construction and Industrial (C&I) loans are a $2.8 trillion business (approximately) for banks all over the country. If they roll over, we have a soft landing. If they roll over hard, we have a hard landing. It’s not complicated, the only thing that’s up in the air is the tim.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 28, 2023
The last new all-time high for the S&P 500 was on January 3, 2022. That means it’s been almost 450 days since we’ve experienced new highs in the stock market. That feels like a long time. But based on the history of bear markets, it’s really not all that long. It might be a while until we hit new highs again if we use history as a guide.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 28, 2023
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.65%, down from 0.66% January. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.99% in February 2022. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Discipline Funds
MARCH 1, 2023
If I had to distill our macro view into a single chart it would be this – house prices vs rents. COVID created an incredible disequilibrium in the housing market where house prices surged 40%+ and rents are only just playing catch-up. It’s part of what has caused inflation to linger as rents have a lagging impact on CPI and have yet to roll over substantially in the Owners Equivalent Rent data.
The Irrelevant Investor
MARCH 10, 2023
I will remember this week for the rest of my life. As an investor, you get used to stock market volatility. Economic volatility on the other hand has a way of sticking with you. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the Fed was driving an overheating economy at 150 miles per hour. And when it realized it was going too fast, it jammed on the brake pedal as hard as it could.
The Big Picture
MARCH 10, 2023
Armchair quarterbacking the decisions of the Federal Reserve long ago became a blood sport. With the benefit of hindsight, we all are genius central bankers. I particularly loathe managers who lay all the woes of the world at the feet of the Federal Reserve. For more than a century, America’s central bank has been a key part of the investing environment, and it’s your job as an active manager to incorporate their probable policy decisions into your strategy.
The Reformed Broker
MARCH 25, 2023
And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 31, 2023
There are many different ways to succeed as an investor. If there were only one approach that worked, everyone would do that.1 I know plenty of investors with completely different styles that have found success in the markets over the years. But there are only a handful of ways investors fail in the markets: Allowing your emotions to get the best of you.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 22, 2023
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index (ABI) Slowdown Continues into February More architecture firms reported a decline in billings in February, indicating an extension of a recent downturn in design activity according to a new report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Wealth Management
MARCH 29, 2023
MSCI’s Jim Costello and Alexis Maltin warn that while a failure on the scale of the Great Financial Crisis is unlikely, there are signs that trouble may be brewing for real estate investors with upcoming maturities.
The Irrelevant Investor
MARCH 4, 2023
Something interesting happened this week that has never happened before. According to Ryan Detrick, three weeks ago, AAII bulls made a 52-week high. And then stocks fell, and bulls went into the fetal position. Bears now outnumber bulls almost two to one. This about-face happened at a breakneck speed never before witnessed. Here’s the chart from Liz Ann Sonders.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
The Big Picture
MARCH 29, 2023
Normally, I am a fan of Steve Rattner’s work. The former Obama “Car Czar” makes great charts and seems to be a fairly level-headed asset manager. But in the great baseball game of punditry, we all occasionally we step up to the plate and whiff. Such a down on three swings was contained in his recent NYT Op-Ed, “ Is Working From Home Really Working?
The Reformed Broker
MARCH 11, 2023
I want to start out this week with a big thank you to all our fans, friends, employees and clients who came out to see us in Chicago this week for what can only be described as a whirlwind of productivity and fun. The meetings were meaningful, the catch-ups were long overdue and the food was fantastic. We will be back! If you live in the Chicago area and could use a little help with your portfolio, tax advice or just want.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 3, 2023
The latest Case-Shiller national home price index data was released this week. Here’s where we stand in terms of the drawdown from peak prices: This is the third largest national home price drawdown since 1987 but I’m sure lots of people are surprised prices haven’t fallen more what with 7% mortgage rates and unsustainable price gains in recent years.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 5, 2023
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through March 3rd. Lumber is currently at $369 per 1000 board feet. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 72% from $1,441 a year ago. Prices are down 8% compared to the same week in 2019, and below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
Wealth Management
MARCH 28, 2023
Among other changes, the association will add a wealth management specialization, with additional content on client management, investment planning and the duty of care.
The Irrelevant Investor
MARCH 23, 2023
If you told me at the beginning of march that the following would happen: Silicon Valley Bank fails. So do Silvergate and Signature. Another, First Republic, is also on the ropes. The fed, treasury, and FDIC have to work together to prevent a run on regional banks. And then a week later, the fed would still hike by 25 basis points. Banks fail, fed hikes.
The Big Picture
MARCH 3, 2023
Have a look at the BAML chart above. 1 It is one of my favorites, but for reasons that might not be readily apparent at first glance. The chart shows the peak-to-trough declines of all the bear markets with the popular definition of a 20% decline, measured up until the start of the first 20% rally. 2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red.
The Reformed Broker
MARCH 15, 2023
Apparently it’s news to the whole world this morning that Credit Suisse is some sort of undead Swiss zombie bank worth more dissected and sold off in chunks than alive. Who knew? Oh wait – everyone knew, for a long time now. Open secret. Single digit stock price. Come on. I meet financial advisors at industry events and cocktail parties – I wince when they say they work at Credit Suisse.
Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®
Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?
A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 17, 2023
There were a lot of surprising details that came to light from the Silicon Valley Bank fiasco. It was surprising how quickly a bank run took hold for such a large institution. It was surprising how quickly the bank’s customers fled one of their most trusted partners. It was surprising how seemingly little oversight this now systemically important bank had.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 2, 2023
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 25, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 67% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, but climbed on par with last week’s pace, which was a slightly slower yearly pace than we saw late January and early February.
Advisor Perspectives
MARCH 22, 2023
Do advisors need to accept that technology will forever be a drag, or can the right approach lead to personal happiness and a more productive practice?
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