March, 2023

article thumbnail

Déjà Vu? 2023 is Not 2008

The Big Picture

Depositors heaved a sigh of relief when news broke Sunday that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was going to make whole all of the accounts held at Silicon Valley Bank. Having full access to bank accounts meant those tech start-ups that make up much of SVB’s depositors would be able to make their weekly payrolls. They were the lucky ones: SVB’s equity investors were wiped out and senior bank management was fired.

Banking 335
article thumbnail

Top.

The Reformed Broker

I feel pretty confident in making this call, and I don’t make market calls very often: We have seen the top for 2-year Treasury yields. It’s not going any higher than it’s been because there’s no reason for it to. Financial conditions are now contracting hard due in part to the events of this week but also because monetary policy operates on a lag – and the first Fed Funds hike of the cycle.

Marketing 361
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 72% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through March 3rd. Lumber is currently at $369 per 1000 board feet. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 72% from $1,441 a year ago. Prices are down 8% compared to the same week in 2019, and below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400.

145
145
article thumbnail

The Happiness Paradox

A Wealth of Common Sense

John Marsden grew up in a wealthy family. He was a brilliant student who went to Harvard, graduated from law school and eventually fulfilled his dream of becoming a successful lawyer. John got married in his 30s and had children. Leo DeMarco also went to Harvard where he dreamed of becoming a famous writer. But after college he became a high school teacher and loved working with his students so much that his dream never c.

144
144
article thumbnail

Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

article thumbnail

Whose Fault is it Anyway

The Irrelevant Investor

It has been 872 days since a bank failed in the United States. This was the longest streak on record. We’re now at day zero. Silicon Valley bank went down on Friday. Signature Bank last night. These are the second and third largest bank failures in history behind Washington Mutual during the GFC. People are scared, mad, and looking for someone to blame.

Banking 140

More Trending

article thumbnail

The Fed is Breaking Things (and it could get worse)

The Big Picture

Armchair quarterbacking the decisions of the Federal Reserve long ago became a blood sport. With the benefit of hindsight, we all are genius central bankers. I particularly loathe managers who lay all the woes of the world at the feet of the Federal Reserve. For more than a century, America’s central bank has been a key part of the investing environment, and it’s your job as an active manager to incorporate their probable policy decisions into your strategy.

Banking 338
article thumbnail

A shock to lending standards

The Reformed Broker

This is it. The only chart you need to concern yourself with now if you’re trying to figure out where the economy is heading. Construction and Industrial (C&I) loans are a $2.8 trillion business (approximately) for banks all over the country. If they roll over, we have a soft landing. If they roll over hard, we have a hard landing. It’s not complicated, the only thing that’s up in the air is the tim.

Economy 334
article thumbnail

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 67% YoY; New Listings Down 16% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 25, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 67% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, but climbed on par with last week’s pace, which was a slightly slower yearly pace than we saw late January and early February.

Sales 145
article thumbnail

Why the Stock Market Makes You Feel Bad All the Time

A Wealth of Common Sense

The last new all-time high for the S&P 500 was on January 3, 2022. That means it’s been almost 450 days since we’ve experienced new highs in the stock market. That feels like a long time. But based on the history of bear markets, it’s really not all that long. It might be a while until we hit new highs again if we use history as a guide.

Marketing 141
article thumbnail

2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

article thumbnail

A Reverse Minsky Moment

The Irrelevant Investor

I will remember this week for the rest of my life. As an investor, you get used to stock market volatility. Economic volatility on the other hand has a way of sticking with you. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the Fed was driving an overheating economy at 150 miles per hour. And when it realized it was going too fast, it jammed on the brake pedal as hard as it could.

Economy 134
article thumbnail

How Much Strain Is the Commercial Real Estate Market Showing? It's a Complex Issue.

Wealth Management

MSCI’s Jim Costello and Alexis Maltin warn that while a failure on the scale of the Great Financial Crisis is unlikely, there are signs that trouble may be brewing for real estate investors with upcoming maturities.

Marketing 120
article thumbnail

U.S. Bank Failures, 2001 – Present

The Big Picture

Bank failures since 2001, scaled by amount of assets in 2023 dollars. The graphic above, via Flowing Data , puts recent events into perspective: At $209 billion in assets, the Silicon Valley Bank failure since Washington Mutual crashed in 2008 (JPM Chase took them over from the FDIC). The post U.S. Bank Failures, 2001 – Present appeared first on The Big Picture.

Banking 322
article thumbnail

This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

332
332
article thumbnail

Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

article thumbnail

AIA: Architecture Billings "Slowdown Continues" in February

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index (ABI) Slowdown Continues into February More architecture firms reported a decline in billings in February, indicating an extension of a recent downturn in design activity according to a new report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

Economy 144
article thumbnail

Why Aren’t Housing Prices Crashing?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The latest Case-Shiller national home price index data was released this week. Here’s where we stand in terms of the drawdown from peak prices: This is the third largest national home price drawdown since 1987 but I’m sure lots of people are surprised prices haven’t fallen more what with 7% mortgage rates and unsustainable price gains in recent years.

141
141
article thumbnail

Why So Bearish?

The Irrelevant Investor

Something interesting happened this week that has never happened before. According to Ryan Detrick, three weeks ago, AAII bulls made a 52-week high. And then stocks fell, and bulls went into the fetal position. Bears now outnumber bulls almost two to one. This about-face happened at a breakneck speed never before witnessed. Here’s the chart from Liz Ann Sonders.

130
130
article thumbnail

CFA Makes 'Most Significant Changes to Program in 60 Years'

Wealth Management

Among other changes, the association will add a wealth management specialization, with additional content on client management, investment planning and the duty of care.

article thumbnail

Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

article thumbnail

All You Need to Know to Build Generational Wealth

The Big Picture

Just back from California and Arizona, and still digging out. In the meanwhile, check out Nick today : The post All You Need to Know to Build Generational Wealth appeared first on The Big Picture.

318
318
article thumbnail

This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

I want to start out this week with a big thank you to all our fans, friends, employees and clients who came out to see us in Chicago this week for what can only be described as a whirlwind of productivity and fun. The meetings were meaningful, the catch-ups were long overdue and the food was fantastic. We will be back! If you live in the Chicago area and could use a little help with your portfolio, tax advice or just want.

Food 286
article thumbnail

February Employment Report: 311 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.

article thumbnail

One of the Biggest Mistakes in Investing

A Wealth of Common Sense

There are many different ways to succeed as an investor. If there were only one approach that worked, everyone would do that.1 I know plenty of investors with completely different styles that have found success in the markets over the years. But there are only a handful of ways investors fail in the markets: Allowing your emotions to get the best of you.

Investing 138
article thumbnail

Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

article thumbnail

Stocks Aren’t Going Down. Why?

The Irrelevant Investor

If you told me at the beginning of march that the following would happen: Silicon Valley Bank fails. So do Silvergate and Signature. Another, First Republic, is also on the ropes. The fed, treasury, and FDIC have to work together to prevent a run on regional banks. And then a week later, the fed would still hike by 25 basis points. Banks fail, fed hikes.

Banking 129
article thumbnail

Accessing Body Intelligence to Make Wiser Money Decisions with Gayle Colman

Steve Sanduski

Guest: Gayle Colman , Certified Financial Planner®, Master Integral Coach®, and author of the new book The Body of Money. In a Nutshell: Financial decisions are often framed as a tug of war between the head and the heart. But by paying attention to how the whole body expresses feelings around money, advisors can guide clients past their fears and towards a fulfilling sense of sufficiency and inner knowing. – Gayle Colman and I discuss: Gayle’s early history with the life planning mov

article thumbnail

What is a Bailout?

The Big Picture

Silicon Valley Bank depositors made whole; Credit Suisse counter-parties saved; First Republic bondholders protected — are these bailouts or something else? Were these people “bailed out?” What are the differences between insured depositors getting their cash back, a private sector rescue orchestrated by the Fed or the Swiss government, and a taxpayer-funded bailout?

Banking 314
article thumbnail

This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

269
269
article thumbnail

Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

article thumbnail

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 198,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000 , an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 191,000. The 4-week moving average was 198,250, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 196,250. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

143
143
article thumbnail

More Money Doesn’t Make You Better at Managing Your Finances

A Wealth of Common Sense

There were a lot of surprising details that came to light from the Silicon Valley Bank fiasco. It was surprising how quickly a bank run took hold for such a large institution. It was surprising how quickly the bank’s customers fled one of their most trusted partners. It was surprising how seemingly little oversight this now systemically important bank had.

article thumbnail

Talk Your Book: Startups in a Crisis

The Irrelevant Investor

On today’s show, we are joined by Brandon Arvanaghi, Founder and CEO of Meow, and Devon Drew, CEO and CIO of DFD Partners to discuss fintech solutions for small businesses and asset managers. On today’s segment with Brandon, we discuss: What Meow does for businesses What’s changed about cash management in the past month Who the counterparty is when buying T-Bills Who Meow works with On today’s s.

Startup 124