June, 2023

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How to Invest if You’re Sitting on a Pile of Cash Right Now

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: My wife and I are 42 with a 13-year-old son. We moved to Phoenix, AZ as immigrants 7 years ago with just a couple thousand dollars to our name. Since then have slowly progressed in our careers. At this point, here’s what we have accomplished financially: Annual combined income: $350k Cash in checking accounts: $230k Mortgage: $530k (28 years left) Investments through 401k, 529 plans: $100k Stock Ma.

Investing 128
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Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition

The Big Picture

A quick note as the first half of 2023 draws to a close, shocking the locals with its intensity. Why? Because almost nobody saw this rally coming. 1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%.

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Wealth.com Debuts ‘Ester,’ An AI-Powered Estate Planning Legal Assistant For Advisors

Wealth Management

Wealth.com's Ester is a proprietary model that can read and restate documents and hold both short and long-term memories of previous client actions.

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“Today’s market pivots from a funeral to a party as fast as a VFW hall.”

The Reformed Broker

Please read this from Michael Santoli: Just as the depth of despond evident in investor-sentiment gauges around Labor Day was out of proportion to what the market and economy had been doing, the volume of cheer engendered by this four-week, 9% rally looks to be running at least a bit ahead of what has, after all, been a marginal upside exit from a long, grinding trading range.

Marketing 351
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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 264,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending June 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000 , unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 262,000 to 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 255,750, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 13, 2021 when it was 260,000.

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This is Why You Stay the Course

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last year was one of the worst years ever for financial markets. Call it recency or loss aversion or some other Daniel Kahneman bias but for some reason, our brains are hard-wired to assume big losses will be followed by additional losses (just like we assume big gains will be followed by additional gains).1 The thing about big losses in the stock market is sometimes they are followed by big losses…but sometimes t.

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Americonned

The Big Picture

@TBPInvictus here: Contrary to 40+ years and counting of “trickle down” narrative, the reality is that the gap between the 1% and everyone else (let’s say the bottom 90%) has never been wider. It’s become a chasm, and the charts below tell the story. Here is the wealth share of the bottom 90% and the Top 1%, equalized in 1989: Here is both the share (scale at Left ) and level (scale at right) of total net worth held by the Top 1%.

Numbers 328
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Diving Into the Performance of Factors

Alpha Architect

Researchers have raised questions and led to research into how many factors are needed, the replicability of originally reported results, and the decay of factor performance over time. Diving Into the Performance of Factors was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Investing 125
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The Day the Treasury Topped

The Reformed Broker

The parabolic spike in 2-year Treasury bond rates this winter ended with a crescendo on Thursday, March 9th and Friday March 10th. That week, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank had thoroughly spooked the markets and convinced traders that the Federal Reserve would be forced to start downshifting its hiking cycle and the accompanying hawkish rhetoric.

Banking 346
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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CoreLogic: 1.2 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q1 2023

Calculated Risk

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Home Borrowers See First Annual Home Equity Losses Since 2012 in Q1 2023, but Overall Mortgage Performance Remains Strong CoreLogic®. today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the first quarter of 2023. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) saw home equity decrease by 0.7% year over year, representing a collective loss of $108.4 billion, and an average loss of $5,400 per borrower since the f

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11 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors for the Weekend (June 9, 2023)

Wealth Management

Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed her concerns about the effect that commercial real estate loans might have on banks. Forbes listed 71 real estate firms among the 2,000 largest public companies in the world. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world heading into the weekend.

Banking 122
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The Stock Market Will Pick the Winners For You

A Wealth of Common Sense

The AI craze is in full effect so everyone is trying to figure out who the winners will be. Maybe it will be the upstarts, some new start-up that gives you your own personal assistant in your ear, on your iPhone and at your desk. Or maybe it will be the big tech players who have gobs of money to throw at AI like Microsoft, Google and Facebook. Maybe it’s a company like NVIDIA that supplies the chips and software.

Marketing 142
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Ramit Sethi on Living Richly

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with entrepreneur Ramit Sethi, who is the founder and chief executive officer of the online education platform I Will Teach You to Be Rich (IWT ), which attracts more than 1 million readers a month. Sethi is also the host of the Netflix series “ How To Get Rich ,” which is based on his New York Times bestselling book “ I Will Teach You to Be Rich “; he also hosts a podcast of the same name.

Education 328
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI

Advisor Perspectives

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 405%. It is well above the 3.75% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 2.64%.

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Black Swans, Stock Market Crashes and the Chaos Kings

The Reformed Broker

On this special episode of Live from The Compound, Scott Patterson, Financial Journalist and Wall Street Journal Reporter, joins Michael Batnick and Josh Brown to discuss Scott’s new book, Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis. Follow Scott on: Twitter Book. The post Black Swans, Stock Market Crashes and the Chaos Kings appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

Marketing 268
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PCE Measure of Shelter Finally Slowing YoY

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through May 2023. CPI Shelter was up 8.0% year-over-year in May, down from 8.1% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 8.3% YoY in May , down from 8.4% in April (April was the cycle peak).

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Animal Spirits: Is the Bear Market Over?

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by birddogs: Go to birddogs.com/spirits and enter promo code SPIRITS for a free Yeti-style tumbler with your order. On today’s show, we discuss: A visual breakdown of America’s stagnating number of births Construction employment hits new high in May The labor shortage myth Eggs are going on sale just months after prices hit records Token projects have to eat that sh*t.

Marketing 119
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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The Evolution of Financial Advice

A Wealth of Common Sense

To be a successful investor you need to possess a number of different traits. You need to understand how math, statistics and probabilities work. You need to understand corporations and the global economy generally function over the long haul. You need an understanding of how the different asset classes behave from a risk and reward perspective. You also need a deep understanding of financial market history from booms to.

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MiB: Gretchen Morgenson on Private Equity

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Gretchen Morgenson, senior financial reporter for the NBC News investigative unit. A former stockbroker and alumna of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, she won the Pulitzer Prize in 2002 for her “trenchant and incisive” reporting on finance. She (and coauthor Joshua Rosner) recently published “ These Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs―and Wrecks―America.

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Q1 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at 2.0%, Stronger Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in Q1 2023, according to the third estimate. This is slower than the Q4 2022 GDP third estimate of 2.6% growth but faster than the initial estimate of 1.1% growth and the second estimate of 1.3% growth.

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We are Austin-bound June 12th

The Reformed Broker

RWM is coming to Austin, TX June 12th-14th @Downtown with more detailsEmail us at info@ritholtzwealth.com subject line “Austin” to reserve a meeting slot! pic.twitter.com/9iSdG4HFf3 — Ritholtz Wealth (@RitholtzWealth) May 19, 2023 I’m headed out to Austin, Texas this June and bringing a whole bunch of my Ritholtz Wealth Management colleagues with me, including our financial planner in the area.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 16, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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13 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors to Kick Off the Week (June 12, 2023)

Wealth Management

Lenders on office assets are doing everything they can to avoid taking the keys on properties and working on extension and modification agreements, reports Bisnow. Don Peebles sat down with Commercial Observer to discuss how far Black real estate development has come. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to start the week.

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What Happened to the Recession?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here’s a headline from a Bloomberg story about the economy: And the lede: The recession calls are getting louder on Wall Street, but for many of the households and businesses who make up the world economy the downturn is already here. This story probably could have been written yesterday but it was actually published a year ago, in July 2022. If it seems like we’ve been reading about a looming recession for m.

Economy 132
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What Do You Believe? Why?

The Big Picture

One of the most important aspects of becoming a good investor is creating a model of the world around you. To do this, you must have good decision-making skills, and the ability to make sense of incomplete and sometimes contradictory information. This is not easy. Indeed, it is often counterintuitive. What seems like an obvious market-moving data point or piece of news is very often already in the price.

Investing 312
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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CB Leading Economic Index Declines Further as Recession Signal Continues

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May dropped to 106.7 from April's figure of 107.5. This is the index's lowest reading since July 2020. and the 14th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2009. Today's reading represented a 0.7% month-over-month decline, slightly higher than the forecast.

Economics 111
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Adani Wilmar Vs Patanjali Foods – Financials, Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Adani Wilmar Vs Patanjali Foods : The Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry plays a pivotal role in our daily lives, offering essential products that are consumed on a daily basis. From the toothpaste we use in the morning to the packaged foods we rely on for our meals, the FMCG industry encompasses a wide range of products that are an integral part of our routines.

Food 105
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Vehicles Sales at 15.05 million SAAR in May; Up 19.6% YoY

Calculated Risk

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for May this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 15.05 million SAAR in May 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.5% from the April sales rate, and up 19.6% from May 2022. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red).

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