August, 2023

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Investing is the Study of Human Decision Making

The Big Picture

Most people believe that investing is the science of generating a return on capital. That is an accurate but incomplete assessment. I believe it is more useful and comprehensive to define investing as the decision-making behavior of human beings as they interact with money: What their financial desires are, the risks they embrace, how they think about wealth, and what emotional pain they willingly suffer in order to generate that return on capital.

Investing 246
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Longform links: distracted from leisure

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Gloria Mark, author of "Attention Span: A Groundbreaking Way to Restore Balance, Happiness and Productivity." (annieduke.substack.com) A Q&A with Sara Petersen author of "Momfluenced: Inside the Maddening, Picture-Perfect World of Mommy Influencer Culture." (annehelen.substack.com) Technology It's easy to miss the story of exponential technological change.

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Apple hits big oversold levels, now what?

The Reformed Broker

The Relative Strength Index or RSI is typically expressed as a 14-day reading to determine the degree to which a stock or an index is overbought or oversold, if at all. It was created in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder Jr. (here’s the book) who was a mechanical engineer by trade before turning his mathematical mind to stock and commodity trading, subsequently developing some of the most widely traded tools in technical ana.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 122
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Family Offices Look Ready to Step Up Real Estate Investment. What Are They Looking for in Their Partners?

Wealth Management

Transparency in financial reporting, favorable partnership structures are taking on more importance for family offices in a riskier investment climate.

Investing 128

More Trending

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Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: +0.2%

The Big Picture

The Fed’s favored inflation report was a 2.1% annualized (3 months through July) and 3.3% year-over-year. Here is BEA: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billio

Food 263
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Thursday links: impulsive and irreverent

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Some neglected aspects of investing including 'The influence of luck in outcomes.' (investmenttalk.co) The story of a top investor's mistake holding a stock too long. (morningstar.com) Banks How is the integration of First Republic going for JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)? (theinformation.com) More capital would not have saved SVB. (ft.com) Finance A handful of big IPOs are queued up after Labor Day including Instacart, Arm Holdings and Klayvio.

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Trading Legend Mark Fisher on What it Takes

The Reformed Broker

We had a lot of fun with Joe Terranova and Mark Fisher on the show this week. Mark shared a lot of behavioral stuff about what it takes to make it as a trader. It’s not for everyone and it costs a lot to find this out. I was fascinated by the discussion and judging for the feedback we’ve gotten, a lot of our listeners were as well. You can watch the full episode here: Or find it on your favorite podcast ap.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 6% YoY; New Listings Down 8% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 26, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5.9%. This past week marked the 10th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however the gap narrowed for the fourth week in a row. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale

Sales 119
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Incorporating Life Settlements into Your Client Strategy

Wealth Management

A policy that performs justifies the premium costs and liquidity constraints. Unfortunately, it's all too common for life insurance to use and hold value that's better deployed elsewhere.

Clients 117
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Is Nvidia the Next Cisco?

The Irrelevant Investor

Nvidia is one of the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500. Nvidia is not the first giant tech company to trade at a rich valuation. The one that people often compare it to is Cisco, one of the darlings from the dot com era. We can’t compare things to the future, so we look to the past. Cisco sported an $8.9 billion market cap on the opening day of 1995.

Valuation 111
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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end of August, morning train WFH reads: • Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’ The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. ( Institutional Investor ) • What to Do With a 45-Story Skyscraper and No Tenants : HSBC’s plan to leave its Canary Wharf tower for a smaller site shows the global challenges ahead in repurposing unwanted office space for a post-pandemic world. ( Citylab ) see al

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Tuesday links: over-optimized content

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How (and where) to hold cash in your portfolio. (morningstar.com) For alternatives, Is illiquidity a feature or a bug? (savantwealth.com) Don't underestimate how weird the world can be. (mr-stingy.com) Crypto Grayscale won a victory against the SEC raising the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF. (blockworks.co) The entire crypto space jumped on the news.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Time to get “Real” about the coming recession

David Nelson

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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The Word on WealthTech for September 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder and CEO provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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High Promoter Holding Stocks Under Rs 50 – Strong Promoter Confidence?

Trade Brains

High Promoter Holding Stocks under Rs 50: There are various parameters such as debt level, RoE, etc. investors keep in mind while screening stocks. One such filter is ‘promoter stake’ or ‘promoter shareholding’ in the stock. A high promoter stake acts as a vote of confidence of the company owners towards the business. But with so many listed stocks, how to find out the best among them?

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Forget the iPhone: BlackBerry is still the one to beat

The Big Picture

How little do we know about the future? A great way to figure that out is to look to our past, to see what we previously thought about what the future will hold. To wit: 26 years ago, the image above came from the cover story of Fortune magazine: “There’s a lot of buzz in the smartphone business lately, with Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone turning the mobile world upside down and Nokia’s (NOK) upcoming phone announcement providing a new challenge.

Media 246
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Monday links: following a recipe

Abnormal Returns

Asset allocation Asset allocation is not a science. (obliviousinvestor.com) Diversification reduces the risk of adverse outcomes. (barrons.com) Strategy Everyone and everything ends up underperforming at some point. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Brett Steenbarger, "Over time, unique returns cannot come from consensus thinking." (traderfeed.blogspot.com) Companies Public benefit corporations wear their values on their sleeves.

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China: Contagion or Contained?

Advisor Perspectives

China's economy may have spillover effects on global economic and earnings growth, but it's unlikely to lead to global financial contagion and send stock markets materially lower.

Economy 98
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Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002 Brief excerpt: Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.54% in July from 0.55% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.76% in July 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic low of 0.65% and the lowest rate since 2002.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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12 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Sept. 1, 2023)

Wealth Management

Some companies that reduced their office space are now going back and signing new leases, reports Bisnow. U.S. non-life insurers are positioned to withstand any difficulties in their mortgage portfolios, according to Fitch Ratings. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to end the week.

Insurance 113
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Williams Fractal Indicator – Meaning, Formula & Trading Strategy

Trade Brains

Williams Fractal Indicator : The price movement of the security help traders to identify opportunities in future directions with the help of technical analysis tools. Trending markets are best suited to take long or short position for better profits. Among all the indicators, one of the technical indicators to use in trending markets is the Williams Fractal indicator.

Marketing 104
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Lessons for Investors from Mini-Panics

The Big Picture

The first post-pandemic presentation I pulled together for my pal Joe Fitzgerald (we worked together in the late 2000s) was a new deck titled: Biggest Mistakes Made by UHNW Investors. In the intervening year, I updated and refined the deck, adding more examples and specific advice. below is my discussion of what the presentation will be like at the MoneyShow in Orlando on October 30.

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NAIFA, Life Happens, and the Society of Financial Service Professionals Unite Together to Advance Financial Security for America

NAIFA Advisor Today

Three best-in-class associations will integrate operations to amplify their impact on advocacy and education for financial service professionals and promote financial wellness for American consumers. The National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors (NAIFA), the Society of Financial Service Professionals (FSP), and Life Happens announced plans to come together as one organization, pending membership approval.

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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Job Openings Drop to Lowest Level in Over Two Years

Advisor Perspectives

The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings dropped to their lowest level in over two years. Vacancies fell to 8.827 million in July, lower than the expected 9.465 million vacancies.

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Work from home Momma part 2: School begins

MainStreet Financial Planning

So I just dropped my son off at Kindergarten. After 5 and 2/3 years working with him by my side almost every day, now I am here in the quiet. It is surreal. Before his existence was known, I knew I wanted to avoid sending him to daycare. I wanted him to grow up more like I did, with a stay-at-home mom. In today’s world, that is a rarity if not downright impossible for many.

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Why Now Might Be the Best Time to Invest in Publicly-Traded REITs

Wealth Management

With some publicly-traded REITs beginning to pick up assets from the private markets it may be an indication that they are entering a phase when they tend to deliver the highest returns.

Investing 104