August, 2023

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Investing is the Study of Human Decision Making

The Big Picture

Most people believe that investing is the science of generating a return on capital. That is an accurate but incomplete assessment. I believe it is more useful and comprehensive to define investing as the decision-making behavior of human beings as they interact with money: What their financial desires are, the risks they embrace, how they think about wealth, and what emotional pain they willingly suffer in order to generate that return on capital.

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Apple hits big oversold levels, now what?

The Reformed Broker

The Relative Strength Index or RSI is typically expressed as a 14-day reading to determine the degree to which a stock or an index is overbought or oversold, if at all. It was created in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder Jr. (here’s the book) who was a mechanical engineer by trade before turning his mathematical mind to stock and commodity trading, subsequently developing some of the most widely traded tools in technical ana.

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Longform links: distracted from leisure

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Gloria Mark, author of "Attention Span: A Groundbreaking Way to Restore Balance, Happiness and Productivity." (annieduke.substack.com) A Q&A with Sara Petersen author of "Momfluenced: Inside the Maddening, Picture-Perfect World of Mommy Influencer Culture." (annehelen.substack.com) Technology It's easy to miss the story of exponential technological change.

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TD Ameritrade To Schwab Conversion Tips For Financial Advisors

Nerd's Eye View

The announcement of the merger between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade in November 2019 kicked off a marathon of preparation for advisory firms to transition their clients on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab. And with the final conversion of clients scheduled to take place over the upcoming Labor Day weekend of 2023, the marathon is approaching its final sprint toward the finish line.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 120

More Trending

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Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: +0.2%

The Big Picture

The Fed’s favored inflation report was a 2.1% annualized (3 months through July) and 3.3% year-over-year. Here is BEA: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billio

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Trading Legend Mark Fisher on What it Takes

The Reformed Broker

We had a lot of fun with Joe Terranova and Mark Fisher on the show this week. Mark shared a lot of behavioral stuff about what it takes to make it as a trader. It’s not for everyone and it costs a lot to find this out. I was fascinated by the discussion and judging for the feedback we’ve gotten, a lot of our listeners were as well. You can watch the full episode here: Or find it on your favorite podcast ap.

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Monday links: following a recipe

Abnormal Returns

Asset allocation Asset allocation is not a science. (obliviousinvestor.com) Diversification reduces the risk of adverse outcomes. (barrons.com) Strategy Everyone and everything ends up underperforming at some point. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Brett Steenbarger, "Over time, unique returns cannot come from consensus thinking." (traderfeed.blogspot.com) Companies Public benefit corporations wear their values on their sleeves.

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#FA Success Ep 346: Moving Procrastinating Clients To “Yes” Instead Of Selling As A Fee-Only Advisor, With Jim Ludwick

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 346th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jim Ludwick. Jim is the founder of MainStreet Financial Planning, an hourly, fee-only financial planning firm, and also created Procrastination Junction, a coaching program for fee-only financial advisors looking to improve their sales skills.

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4 Things Great Companies Do to Improve Cash Flow

Speaker: Don Gallianza, Credit Manager at Chevron Phillips Chemical and Indy Chakrabarti, Chief Marketing Officer at HighRadius

4 Case Studies to Optimize DSO 26 Days Sales Outstanding. Already better than most. But, should you improve on that? Why would 3 fewer days even matter? It matters because it fundamentally transforms business outcomes. Join this webinar to explore 4 things companies do to reclaim hard dollars - not just soft costs - and go from good to great! What You'll Learn 6 operational KPIs every AR manager should track: Define and track these metrics to enhance performance, drive efficiency, and make infor

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 6% YoY; New Listings Down 8% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 26, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5.9%. This past week marked the 10th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however the gap narrowed for the fourth week in a row. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale

Sales 117
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A Closer Look at Risk & Reward in Bonds Right Now

A Wealth of Common Sense

Jonathan Novy, one of our advisors and insurance experts at Ritholtz Wealth, joined me this week to discuss questions about emergency funds, investing when you don’t have a 401k, annuity yields and long-term care insurance. Further Reading: Why I’m More Worried About the Bond Market Than the Stock Market 1The same is true of CDs. I looked at 5 year CD yields at Marcus today.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end of August, morning train WFH reads: • Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’ The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. ( Institutional Investor ) • What to Do With a 45-Story Skyscraper and No Tenants : HSBC’s plan to leave its Canary Wharf tower for a smaller site shows the global challenges ahead in repurposing unwanted office space for a post-pandemic world. ( Citylab ) see al

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Incorporating Life Settlements into Your Client Strategy

Wealth Management

A policy that performs justifies the premium costs and liquidity constraints. Unfortunately, it's all too common for life insurance to use and hold value that's better deployed elsewhere.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Thursday links: impulsive and irreverent

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Some neglected aspects of investing including 'The influence of luck in outcomes.' (investmenttalk.co) The story of a top investor's mistake holding a stock too long. (morningstar.com) Banks How is the integration of First Republic going for JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)? (theinformation.com) More capital would not have saved SVB. (ft.com) Finance A handful of big IPOs are queued up after Labor Day including Instacart, Arm Holdings and Klayvio.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims Fall for Third Consecutive Week

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending August 26, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell for a third consecutive week to 228,000. Initial claims decreased by 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure and came in below the forecast of 235,000.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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Is Nvidia the Next Cisco?

The Irrelevant Investor

Nvidia is one of the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500. Nvidia is not the first giant tech company to trade at a rich valuation. The one that people often compare it to is Cisco, one of the darlings from the dot com era. We can’t compare things to the future, so we look to the past. Cisco sported an $8.9 billion market cap on the opening day of 1995.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Forget the iPhone: BlackBerry is still the one to beat

The Big Picture

How little do we know about the future? A great way to figure that out is to look to our past, to see what we previously thought about what the future will hold. To wit: 26 years ago, the image above came from the cover story of Fortune magazine: “There’s a lot of buzz in the smartphone business lately, with Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone turning the mobile world upside down and Nokia’s (NOK) upcoming phone announcement providing a new challenge.

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High Promoter Holding Stocks Under Rs 50 – Strong Promoter Confidence?

Trade Brains

High Promoter Holding Stocks under Rs 50: There are various parameters such as debt level, RoE, etc. investors keep in mind while screening stocks. One such filter is ‘promoter stake’ or ‘promoter shareholding’ in the stock. A high promoter stake acts as a vote of confidence of the company owners towards the business. But with so many listed stocks, how to find out the best among them?

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Time to get “Real” about the coming recession

David Nelson

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns.

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The Word on WealthTech for September 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder and CEO provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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How To Start A Side Hustle In 10 Steps

Clever Girl Finance

Are you considering starting a side hustle? Perhaps you imagine quitting your job one day to take your business full-time, or maybe you just need to make a little extra money in your spare time. When launching a successful side hustle, there are several foundational things you should have in place. Table of contents What exactly is a side hustle and how can it benefit you?

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China: Contagion or Contained?

Advisor Perspectives

China's economy may have spillover effects on global economic and earnings growth, but it's unlikely to lead to global financial contagion and send stock markets materially lower.

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Lessons for Investors from Mini-Panics

The Big Picture

The first post-pandemic presentation I pulled together for my pal Joe Fitzgerald (we worked together in the late 2000s) was a new deck titled: Biggest Mistakes Made by UHNW Investors. In the intervening year, I updated and refined the deck, adding more examples and specific advice. below is my discussion of what the presentation will be like at the MoneyShow in Orlando on October 30.

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Williams Fractal Indicator – Meaning, Formula & Trading Strategy

Trade Brains

Williams Fractal Indicator : The price movement of the security help traders to identify opportunities in future directions with the help of technical analysis tools. Trending markets are best suited to take long or short position for better profits. Among all the indicators, one of the technical indicators to use in trending markets is the Williams Fractal indicator.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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The Evolution of Retirement

A Wealth of Common Sense

There’s a great scene in Midnight in Paris about nostalgia that I think about a lot: Some people always think the past is better than the present because of this golden age line of thinking. I always see memes like this going around Twitter: Life would be better is this was true. Unfortunately, it’s not (see here and here). Another social media trope these days is showing a picture of an old castle or church.

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Why Now Might Be the Best Time to Invest in Publicly-Traded REITs

Wealth Management

With some publicly-traded REITs beginning to pick up assets from the private markets it may be an indication that they are entering a phase when they tend to deliver the highest returns.

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Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002 Brief excerpt: Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.54% in July from 0.55% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.76% in July 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic low of 0.65% and the lowest rate since 2002.

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