August, 2023

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Investing is the Study of Human Decision Making

The Big Picture

Most people believe that investing is the science of generating a return on capital. That is an accurate but incomplete assessment. I believe it is more useful and comprehensive to define investing as the decision-making behavior of human beings as they interact with money: What their financial desires are, the risks they embrace, how they think about wealth, and what emotional pain they willingly suffer in order to generate that return on capital.

Investing 246
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Longform links: distracted from leisure

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Gloria Mark, author of "Attention Span: A Groundbreaking Way to Restore Balance, Happiness and Productivity." (annieduke.substack.com) A Q&A with Sara Petersen author of "Momfluenced: Inside the Maddening, Picture-Perfect World of Mommy Influencer Culture." (annehelen.substack.com) Technology It's easy to miss the story of exponential technological change.

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Apple hits big oversold levels, now what?

The Reformed Broker

The Relative Strength Index or RSI is typically expressed as a 14-day reading to determine the degree to which a stock or an index is overbought or oversold, if at all. It was created in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder Jr. (here’s the book) who was a mechanical engineer by trade before turning his mathematical mind to stock and commodity trading, subsequently developing some of the most widely traded tools in technical ana.

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Family Offices Look Ready to Step Up Real Estate Investment. What Are They Looking for in Their Partners?

Wealth Management

Transparency in financial reporting, favorable partnership structures are taking on more importance for family offices in a riskier investment climate.

Investing 130
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The ROI of Business Lending Platforms

Financial institutions continue to look to quantify the impact of new technologies. Meanwhile, business lending technologies have grown more popular in the industry. However, understanding the impact of said technologies means understanding how to increase your revenue while decreasing your costs. This is key for the growth of your organization. Biz2X created this eBook to analyze the ROI of business lending platforms and learn about the short-term and long-term benefits of said platforms.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 117

More Trending

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Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: +0.2%

The Big Picture

The Fed’s favored inflation report was a 2.1% annualized (3 months through July) and 3.3% year-over-year. Here is BEA: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billio

Taxes 264
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Thursday links: impulsive and irreverent

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Some neglected aspects of investing including 'The influence of luck in outcomes.' (investmenttalk.co) The story of a top investor's mistake holding a stock too long. (morningstar.com) Banks How is the integration of First Republic going for JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)? (theinformation.com) More capital would not have saved SVB. (ft.com) Finance A handful of big IPOs are queued up after Labor Day including Instacart, Arm Holdings and Klayvio.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims Fall for Third Consecutive Week

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending August 26, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell for a third consecutive week to 228,000. Initial claims decreased by 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure and came in below the forecast of 235,000.

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Incorporating Life Settlements into Your Client Strategy

Wealth Management

A policy that performs justifies the premium costs and liquidity constraints. Unfortunately, it's all too common for life insurance to use and hold value that's better deployed elsewhere.

Clients 119
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 6% YoY; New Listings Down 8% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 26, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5.9%. This past week marked the 10th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however the gap narrowed for the fourth week in a row. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale

Sales 114
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Time to get “Real” about the coming recession

David Nelson

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns.

Economy 111
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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end of August, morning train WFH reads: • Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’ The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. ( Institutional Investor ) • What to Do With a 45-Story Skyscraper and No Tenants : HSBC’s plan to leave its Canary Wharf tower for a smaller site shows the global challenges ahead in repurposing unwanted office space for a post-pandemic world. ( Citylab ) see al

Economics 246
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Tuesday links: over-optimized content

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How (and where) to hold cash in your portfolio. (morningstar.com) For alternatives, Is illiquidity a feature or a bug? (savantwealth.com) Don't underestimate how weird the world can be. (mr-stingy.com) Crypto Grayscale won a victory against the SEC raising the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF. (blockworks.co) The entire crypto space jumped on the news.

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Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close

Did you know automating your month-end close can save up to 40% of the time typically spent on manual reconciliations? CFOs and controllers are leveraging SkyStem's workflow management and reconciliation tool to eliminate costly mistakes, ditch manual reconciliations and close faster. Want to know how they do it? Download our Quick Start Guide to a Crystal Clear Close!

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High Promoter Holding Stocks Under Rs 50 – Strong Promoter Confidence?

Trade Brains

High Promoter Holding Stocks under Rs 50: There are various parameters such as debt level, RoE, etc. investors keep in mind while screening stocks. One such filter is ‘promoter stake’ or ‘promoter shareholding’ in the stock. A high promoter stake acts as a vote of confidence of the company owners towards the business. But with so many listed stocks, how to find out the best among them?

Banking 111
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12 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Sept. 1, 2023)

Wealth Management

Some companies that reduced their office space are now going back and signing new leases, reports Bisnow. U.S. non-life insurers are positioned to withstand any difficulties in their mortgage portfolios, according to Fitch Ratings. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to end the week.

Portfolio 115
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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Moving Averages: S&P Finishes August Down 1.7%

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on September 30, 2023 The S&P 500 closed August with a monthly loss of 1.71%, after a gain of 3.22% in July. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, two of five Ivy portfolio ETFs — iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)— is signaling "cash", up from last month's single "cash" signal.

Portfolio 110
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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MiB: Greg Davis, CIO Vanguard

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Vanguard’s chief investment officer Greg Davis. He is responsible for the oversight of approximately $7 trillion managed by Vanguard fixed income, equity index, and quantitative equity groups. Davis also serves as a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the US Treasury Department. He has more than 25 years of investment management experience.

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Monday links: following a recipe

Abnormal Returns

Asset allocation Asset allocation is not a science. (obliviousinvestor.com) Diversification reduces the risk of adverse outcomes. (barrons.com) Strategy Everyone and everything ends up underperforming at some point. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Brett Steenbarger, "Over time, unique returns cannot come from consensus thinking." (traderfeed.blogspot.com) Companies Public benefit corporations wear their values on their sleeves.

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Is Nvidia the Next Cisco?

The Irrelevant Investor

Nvidia is one of the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500. Nvidia is not the first giant tech company to trade at a rich valuation. The one that people often compare it to is Cisco, one of the darlings from the dot com era. We can’t compare things to the future, so we look to the past. Cisco sported an $8.9 billion market cap on the opening day of 1995.

Valuation 108
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The Word on WealthTech for September 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder and CEO provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Williams Fractal Indicator – Meaning, Formula & Trading Strategy

Trade Brains

Williams Fractal Indicator : The price movement of the security help traders to identify opportunities in future directions with the help of technical analysis tools. Trending markets are best suited to take long or short position for better profits. Among all the indicators, one of the technical indicators to use in trending markets is the Williams Fractal indicator.

Portfolio 104
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A Closer Look at Risk & Reward in Bonds Right Now

A Wealth of Common Sense

Jonathan Novy, one of our advisors and insurance experts at Ritholtz Wealth, joined me this week to discuss questions about emergency funds, investing when you don’t have a 401k, annuity yields and long-term care insurance. Further Reading: Why I’m More Worried About the Bond Market Than the Stock Market 1The same is true of CDs. I looked at 5 year CD yields at Marcus today.

Insurance 101
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Lessons for Investors from Mini-Panics

The Big Picture

The first post-pandemic presentation I pulled together for my pal Joe Fitzgerald (we worked together in the late 2000s) was a new deck titled: Biggest Mistakes Made by UHNW Investors. In the intervening year, I updated and refined the deck, adding more examples and specific advice. below is my discussion of what the presentation will be like at the MoneyShow in Orlando on October 30.

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China: Contagion or Contained?

Advisor Perspectives

China's economy may have spillover effects on global economic and earnings growth, but it's unlikely to lead to global financial contagion and send stock markets materially lower.

Economy 98
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How Generative AI Will Impact Business Lending

Generative AI (Artificial Intelligence) is poised to revolutionize the world of business lending. By understanding the impact and possibilities of Generative AI in business lending, banks can stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions. Generative AI has the potential to revolutionize how lenders make credit decisions, automate loan processes, and provide personalized customer experiences.

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Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002 Brief excerpt: Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.54% in July from 0.55% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.76% in July 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic low of 0.65% and the lowest rate since 2002.

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Why Now Might Be the Best Time to Invest in Publicly-Traded REITs

Wealth Management

With some publicly-traded REITs beginning to pick up assets from the private markets it may be an indication that they are entering a phase when they tend to deliver the highest returns.

Investing 105
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Going Long in Two Fields: Why TLT Could Be Your MVP During Recessions

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market: First off, if you want to know how amazing Artificial Intelligence is, the following list of article titles were generated for this article in the matter of four seconds! (we picked the first one and the rest of this article is typed with regular human toiling!) FYI: If you’ve never used ChatGPT, before try it! Much of its delivery is on what and how you ask things and in this case here is the prompt/reply that we asked of it: Certainly!

Assets 98