Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Active inventory decreased last week. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -13.5K 2021: -13.1K 2020: -14.4K 2019: -18.1K Altos reports inventory is down 2.5% week-over-week and down 9.6% from the peak on October 28th. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

346

346

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

PIMCO’s Flexible Real Estate Income Fund is the latest example of this strategy.

Numbers 279

Numbers 279

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Note: This is as of November 30th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 350,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Government 344

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 344

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Big investors may hunt for value-add and opportunistic plays in the coming year amid rising allocations.

279

279

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Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

Clients

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 31, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Reflecting a Weakening Housing Market, Builder Confidence Declined Every Month in 2022 High mortgage rates, elevated construction costs running well above the inflation rate and flagging consumer demand due to deteriorating affordability conditions have dragged builder

Sales 246

Sales Numbers Economics Planning 246

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Smaller advisors, in the sub-$250 million AUM range, discuss their challenges, goals and desire to maintain control of their businesses, rather than participate in the red hot market for M&A.

Marketing 279

Marketing Marketing 279

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Planning opportunities to consider in 2023.

Planning 278

Planning 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 18th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Mitigation of exit and inheritance tax.

Taxes 274

Taxes 274

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

National Association of Homebuilders data, chart by Mish. Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December 2022. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

Sales 226

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 226

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

Management

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

GlobeSt.com looks at whether investment sales are likely to recover in the new year. Small and midsize businesses in the U.S. are increasingly relying on nearshoring to deal with supply chain issues, reports Chain Store Age. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

Sales 273

Sales Investing Investments 273

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

8Chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish. A long-term chart suggests the real driver for gold is not inflation, not the dollar, not conspiracies, not China, and not oil, but rather faith in central banks. Timeline Synopsis Nixon closed the gold redemption window on August 15, 1971. The price of gold was $35 an ounce. Faith in the dollar and central banks collapsed.

Banking 187

Banking Accounting Marketing Marketing 187

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Advisors and analysts look back on their best and worst calls, with ideas on ways retail investors should position themselves heading for the new year.

Portfolio 269

Portfolio Retail Investing Investments 269

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 19, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Why Hot Wheels are one of the most inflation-proof toys in American history : Hot Wheels are a retail oddity. They remain one of the most affordable toys in the country at a time when inflation is chipping away at savings accounts and compounding credit card debt for many Americans. ( NPR ). • The Fed Is Making a Mistake—and the Stock Market Will Pay the Price : The central bank raised interest rates by half a point and promised to hold rates higher for

Retail 146

Retail Management Banking Accounting 146

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

Numbers

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Kenneth Griffin claims the agency violated his right to privacy.

Taxes 264

Taxes 264

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start Holiday-Shortened Week In specific terms today, the average lender is offering a conventional 30yr fixed rate that is roughly an eighth of a point higher than Friday afternoon. [ 30 year fixed 6.27% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM, 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for November.

130

130

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Parsons, Kan.-based Strategic Partners joins from Royal Alliance, an Advisor Group subsidiary, and aligns with LPL OSJ National Financial Alliance.

264

264

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November; California Sales off 48% YoY A brief excerpt: Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in November.

Sales 130

Sales Marketing Marketing Numbers 130

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

Accounting

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Compassion, instead, comes in all shapes and sizes.

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264

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Markets Ruchir Sharma, "In the end, there will be nowhere to hide in a tight money era." (ft.com) Risk parity strategies have had a rough 2022. (institutionalinvestor.com) Crypto What's the future for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) if they can't convert to an ETF. (wsj.com) A deep dive into the business of Binance.US. (dirtybubblemedia.substack.com) Some fund investors went all-in on cryptocurrencies and are not paying the price.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Retail Media Accounting 130

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Who’s in charge? It's not employers.

263

263

Investment Writing

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Have you resolved to exercise more? With that in mind, I’ve updated this list of free and low-cost online exercise classes that I originally created during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. I am grateful to my writer friends who suggested these resources to me. My current exercise favorites. My go-to website for low-impact cardio exercise is Team Body Project.

Investments 119

Investments Investing 119

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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

Accounting

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Planning for succession of these assets.

Clients 262

Clients Assets Planning 262

Indigo Marketing Agency

DECEMBER 19, 2022

As a financial advisor, your job requires you to stay on top of leading industry information, the evolving ways to connect with clients, and new strategies for managing money. With so much going on, it can be challenging to keep track of everything. That’s why we’ve identified the top 41 financial influencers we believe will greatly impact the industry in 2023.

Financial Advisor 116

Financial Advisor CFP Financial Services Education 116

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

The SEC’s proposal to overhaul how transactions are conducted reads like the invention of lawyers and economists who can’t see the easy fix that exists right before their eyes.

221

221

Alpha Architect

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Pastor, Stambaugh, and Taylor (2015) and Zhu (2018) provide significant evidence of decreasing returns to scale (DRS) at both the fund and industry levels. The authors examine the robustness of their inferences after Adams, Hayunga, and Mansi (2021) critique the above two studies. Bigger is Not Always Better in Asset Management was originally published at Alpha Architect.

Assets 103

Assets Management Investing Investments 103

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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

Sales

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Thursday, January 19, 2023 | 2:00 PM ET

Retirement Planning 202

Retirement Planning Retirement Planning Investing 202

XY Planning Network

DECEMBER 19, 2022

5 MIN READ. Over the past year, we've published articles written with one purpose in mind: to help independent financial advisors be successful. As 2022 comes to a close, we rounded up our top 10 most-viewed blogs published this year. From designing a website that will convert to implementing processes to scale your firm, this list is loaded with one helpful resource after another to send you into the new year.

Financial Advisor 101

Financial Advisor Fee Only Financial Planner Financial Planning 101

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 19, 2022

A focus on talent management, culture and learning.

Management 182

Management 182

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Constrained Capital: See here to learn more about investing in companies with capital constraints and here for further disclosures and information regarding Constrained Capital On today’s show, we are joined by Mark Neuman, Founder and CIO of Constrained Capital to discuss investing in ESG orphaned companies.

Investing 99

Investing Investments 99

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Accounting