Fri.Jan 10, 2025

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Comments on December Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Earlier: December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demograp

Numbers 278
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 11–12)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the "Social Security Fairness Act" was signed into law this week, eliminating the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) provisions, which previously reduced the Social Security benefits of individuals who worked in both "covered" (jobs for which they paid into the Social Security system) and "non-covered" (those in which they didn't,

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Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC

Calculated Risk

A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate, at 62.5%. Following this mornings data, we now expect the FOMC to deliver two 25bp cuts this year (vs. three previously) at its June and December meetings, followed by another cut in June 2026, to

Marketing 266
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Bank of America Ramps Up New Wealth Division with Citi, UBS Alums

Wealth Management

BofA announced it hired Ed Riley and Jessica Mullin several days after unveiling its new advisory group for ultra-high-net-worth clients based out of its Merrill Wealth division.

Banking 356
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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.

Retail 147
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Friday links: unimportant differences

Abnormal Returns

Markets The equity risk premium is negative. (bloomberg.com) The seven pillars of market bubbles. (acadian-asset.com) Crypto Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ($FBTC) how has $21.4 billion one year in. (etf.com) More companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. (nytimes.com) Did you know Bhutan has a strategic allocation to cryptocurrencies?

Economy 162

More Trending

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Shifting Interest Rate Expectations Alter Wealth Managers' Alts Exit Plans

Wealth Management

A survey conducted in October by Ocorian found higher-for-longer rates are impacting investment hold period expectations.

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7 Steps to Define and Align Your Money Values for Success

Clever Girl Finance

If someone asked what your money values were, would you know how to answer? Or would you find yourself searching for a response and coming up blank? Our values are a key part of who we are, yet we often don’t take the time to intentionally think about, define, and understand themespecially when it comes to money. For anyone looking to transform their relationship with finances, figuring out your money principles is a great first step.

Ethics 98
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Cerulli: Financial Advisors to Sell More Retirement Plans as Micro DC Market Grows

Wealth Management

A survey of DC recordkeepers found a large majority expect to see more financial advisors selling 401(k) plans with less than $5 million in assets.

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New Year, New Financial Goals: Five Tips for Setting Yourself Up for Success in 2025

MainStreet Financial Planning

A quote from one of my favorite books, The Little Prince by Antoine de Saint-Exupery says, A goal without a plan is just a wish. As we enter 2025, its the perfect moment to take stock of your financial journey and map out your path for the year ahead. Whether you’re focused on building a retirement fund, saving for a big purchase, or simply improving your financial habits, setting clear, realistic goals and crafting a solid plan are the keys to success.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Snowden Lane Claws Back Majority Stake from Private Equity Owner

Wealth Management

Two-thirds of the firm is now owned by remaining shareholders, including advisors and employees.

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Things Change

The Better Letter

In July 1993, the Walt Disney Company issued $300 million 100-year “Sleeping Beauty bonds.” Those who were unenthused called them “Mickey Mouse bonds.” Or just plain goofy. They bore a 7.55 percent coupon with a July 15, 2093 maturity, callable in 2023 at $103.02, declining to 100 percent of face value after July 15, 2043. It was the first century-bond, at least in the U.S., since 1954, and beat Coca-Cola’s issuance of 100-year, no-call bonds by a day.

Retail 96
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Captrust Snags $300M Houston RIA

Wealth Management

Wealth Covenant Group, a Houston-based firm with three employees and nearly $300 million in client assets.

Assets 262
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Private Credit: Upper Versus Lower Middle Market Lending

Alpha Architect

Given the similar net returns that UMM and LMM loans have delivered, allocators should consider diversifying across borrower size cohorts. Since LLM loans are somewhat riskier, careful due diligence should be performed in terms of a lenders credit loss history, fees/expenses, and use of leverage. Private Credit: Upper Versus Lower Middle Market Lending was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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WealthManagement.com Industry Awards 2025: Top Tips for Submitting a Winning Nomination

Wealth Management

Thursday, February 20, 2025 | 1:00 PM ET

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Mythbusting TikTok Tax Advice

Harness Wealth

Tax advice is a common topic on social media platforms like TikTok. Influencers promise easy ways to secure tax deductions, simplifying complex ideas into bite-sized claims that gloss over important details in the process. In this article, well separate the facts from the fiction regarding these social media claims, highlighting the difference between popular and professional tax advicea difference that can have profound consequences when dealing with the Internal Revenue Service.

Taxes 52
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Validea’s Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks – January 2025

Validea

The S&P 500 has had a big run in recent years, led by the biggest tech stocks. But investors often forget that there are many other companies in the index besides the biggest name. And many of those names offer significant value based on their fundamentals. Using a screening system that incorporates 22 different investment strategies – modeled after legendary investors like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, as well as proven academic research – Validea has identified ten S&P 50

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Did the recent market correction bother you?

Truemind Capital

In the recent market correction, I observed many finfluencers and mutual fund distributors cajoling their over-concerned audience & customers by giving them reasons regarding why the markets will bounce back soon and why they should think of the long term and not worry too much. And this is when the markets didn’t even correct much – just around 10%.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Crystal Ball Challenge

Mullooly Asset Management

Crystal Ball Challenge Here are some key takeaways: – Even with advance knowledge of news headlines, predicting market movements is extremely difficult. In a study where participants were given Wall Street Journal headlines a day in advance, about half lost money and one in six went bust.

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Barron's Gets The Memo

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Our conversation here might be getting some mainstream traction from Barron's with the article The 60/40 Portfolio Isnt Doing Its Job. It May Be Time to Ditch Bonds. That would have been a more timely prognosis in 2018 or so but that's ok. While anyone having meaningful exposure to bond duration up to this point has suffered, what is likely to happen going forward?

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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A single-market rising tide fails to lift all stock boats.

SEI

Within the equity markets, corporate earnings have surprised to the upside and have shown strength outside of big tech.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: January 10, 2025

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended January 10, 2025 at 4.77%, its highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.40%, its highest level since July 2024.

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MiB: Brian Hurst, ClearAlpha

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Brian Hurst , the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of ClearAlpha. Prior to founding ClearAlpha, Brian spent 21 years at AQR Capital Management as a portfolio manager, researcher, head of trading, and the firm’s first non-founding Partner. He was also Cliff Asness’ first hire at GSAM. Hurst was instrumental in designing and implementing AQR’s trading platform.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.

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Podcast links: overcoming perfectionism

Abnormal Returns

Finance Derek Thompson talks with Michael Cembalest chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management about the state of the economy headed into 2025. (podcasts.apple.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Brian Hurst, the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of ClearAlpha. (ritholtz.com) David Senra on lessons learned from the life of Hetty Green, once the 'richest woman in America.

Economy 162
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Who’s Afraid of Rising Treasury Yields? Not Stocks

Advisor Perspectives

Stock investors have been watching the runup in US Treasury yields with considerable alarm of late.

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Budgeting for Twins: 11 Tips To Manage Double The Costs

Clever Girl Finance

Bringing home one baby is a life-changing event, but bringing home two? Its double the love, double the joy, andlets be honestdouble the expenses. When I found out I was having twins, I wasnt sure what to expect financially. I knew that babies were expensive, but two at once? That felt overwhelming. However, through trial and error, I found ways to make budgeting for twins manageable without sacrificing what my babies needed.

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On Bubble Watch

Advisor Perspectives

Many people these days are on heightened alert for bubbles, and I’m often asked whether there’s a bubble surrounding the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the handful of stocks that have been leading it.

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Three Things I Think I Think – New Years Edition

Discipline Funds

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Book update. Please excuse the radio silence in recent weeks. I wrapped up my new book this week and I am just putting the finishing touches on it, but I’ve been burning the midnight oil every night for the last two months. I am very excited about this one. It’s been ten years since I published Pragmatic Capitalism and I have to laugh looking back at that one because this new book is infinitely better in my opinion.

Economy 52
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?