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Thursday links: dismissing nuance

Abnormal Returns

Decision making Barry Ritholtz, "There is an endless assortment of ways to make mistakes that hurt your portfolio." healthcaredive.com) Medicine Eli Lilly ($LLY) reports positive results for a daily weight loss pill. dollar as the centerpiece of the global economy. wsj.com) Where the U.S. is falling behind China in biotech.

Medicine 162
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2025 Q1 Update: Federal Reserve Rates, Inflation and Financial Markets

Your Richest Life

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the economy is in a good place right now, and with inflation rates creeping back up , there is no reason to make another cut at this time. Future cuts will depend on inflation and the strength of the economy as the year goes on. 2025 Inflation creeps up The U.S.

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Transcript: Lisa Shalett, CIO Morgan Stanley

The Big Picture

We have a very robust economy. We’ve re levered the economy, if you will, where the leverage of the private sector, the household sector, the corporate sector that got us into the great financial crisis that’s been healed. And it has nothing whatsoever to do with the modern economy. 00:37:58 Right?

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Bracketology (2025 Edition)

The Better Letter

In 2019, submitting a hastily filled in bracket – and under the influence of cold medicine – Nigl predicted the first 49 games of the tournament correctly (into the Sweet Sixteen) before seeing his streak snapped. It applies to your personal portfolio, too.

Numbers 76
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Tuesday links: the range of outcomes

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Diversification Diversification means seeing parts of your portfolio underperforming. on.ft.com) Blackstone ($BX) is working with Vanguard to get private assets into portfolios. riabiz.com) Medicine Pfizer ($PFE) has dropped another anti-obesity pill. Liquidity The bid-ask spread on corporate bonds has blown out.

Medicine 162
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Strong-Link Problems

The Better Letter

In a tough economy, a guy in his 50s without a high school diploma has it especially tough. Routine medicine is a weak-link problem. Cutting-edge medicine is different. But in the economy, and elsewhere, “it’s not a normal distribution. He became a school janitor for the remainder of his working life.

Math 75
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Supply Chain Is 40% of Inflation

The Big Picture

Most observers of the economy assumed the answer to his question was “some amount,” but I believe di Giovanni and his co-authors are the first to quantify it: “Our analysis of the relative importance of supply-side versus demand-side factors finds 60 percent of U.S. Short answer: 40%.

Medicine 363