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Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.
At a high level, we're currently seeing a 'tale of 2 economies': While the market for services has expanded steadily since the beginning of the year (with both employment and the price of services growing in kind), the U.S. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The labor market, while still remarkably resilient, has also started to show signs of stress.
Financial advisors often discuss how futile it is to try and predict what will happen in the stock market, and yet the reality is that a core component of creating a financial plan involves making a prediction for how markets will behave, at least in the long run.
This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4. Fail better.
medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation. wsj.com) China is dramatically reducing the amount of economic statistics it publishes. economist.com) Economy This high yield bond indicator is signalling economic trouble ahead.
Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count. wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. awealthofcommonsense.com) Market statistics can gloss over the big picture. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
Key takeaways: Economic activity was downshifted by mid-year, with elevated interest rates and inflation fatigue weighing on consumer and business spending behavior. The less frothy economic data provide more reason for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates in the second half of 2024. above its 10-year average of 17.9x.
These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments. How useful is management guidance?
stock market has, on average, outperformed international equities over the last 15 years since emerging from the Great Recession of 2008, many investors argue that international diversification is a poor allocation of dollars that would otherwise be earning more in the U.S. As the U.S. The outperformance of U.S. The outperformance of U.S.
In response to repeated inquiries from BofA clients, Savita looked at numerous indicators that collectively suggest markets are topping. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990. But as prior history has taught us, all bull markets eventually come to an end. appeared first on The Big Picture.
frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. politico.com) Why marketeconomics doesn't necessarily work in health care. econofact.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. abnormalreturns.com) The question with emerging market equities is if, not when.
If only there were some ways to prevent investors from interfering with the markets greatest strength the incomparable and guaranteed ability to create wealth by compounding over time. Drawdowns, corrections, and crashes are not the problem your behavior in response to market turmoil is what causes long-term financial harm.
Markets Today's constructive CPI report rang a bell for financial markets. finance.yahoo.com) The market for leveraged loans is open for business, especially refinancings. scheplick.com) NA beer Athletic Brewing is riding the wave of interest in NA beverages to a much higher valuation.
MarketsMarketvaluations aren't that helpful in the short term. bonddad.blogspot.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. ft.com) Strategy Why you can ignore all the magazine cover commentary. ft.com) Industrial production is fading.
Economics Margaret Hoover talks with Felix Salmon author of "The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal." conversationswithtyler.com) Cardiff Garcia talks about the economics of innovation with Heidi Williams and Caleb Watney. Aswath Damodaran about stock valuations, market efficiency, and the rise of AI.
As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. Some are known and already priced in, more are ambiguous, not fully reflected in market prices, and some are random surprises that by definition markets have not accounted for. 50% chance ).
Market Drama Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA March 3rd, 2025 Watch Time: 4 min. Welcome to this week’s Market Drama! Stock Market Update: S&P 500: Down 1% for the week, up 1.2% Stocks ex-Emerging Markets): Up 8% YTD, outperforming U.S. Economies and markets fluctuate.
If you spend any time with FinTV – even if it’s muted in the background – you would have been treated to a debate as to “ Are we in a new bull market? ” Sometimes it’s phrased as “ Is the bear market over? ” I believe this is the wrong way to think about bull and bear markets. Paret’s discussion of overseas gains.
finance.yahoo.com) MarketsValuations don't matter in the short term. etf.com) How options income ETFs are marketed. morningstar.com) Economy Any single economic data point is filled with noise. Rates Mortgage rates are at levels not seen since 2001. axios.com) Global government bond yields are at 15-year highs.
Markets Wall Street strategists views on the market can differ in the short and long term. tker.co) You can't take historical stock market statistics to the bank. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself.
Weekly Market Insights | November 25th, 2024 Pre-Holiday Optimism Lifts Markets Stocks advanced last week, powering ahead with pre-holiday optimism despite geopolitical tensions and two disappointing Q3 corporate updates. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, was flat (-0.05 New Home Sales.
Amazon AMZN Market Cap. billion making it the first company to lose over $1 trillion in market cap. Tesla TSLA Market Cap. Tesla has lost about $727 billion in market cap but it likely will not be next. Facebook META Market Cap. This is an impressive effort by Meta, down $759 billion in market cap from its peak.
As markets rebound from a brief but sharp correction, Journey’s investment team reflects on the impact of tariffs, global diversification, and the evolving role of alternatives in investor portfolios.
This is especially true in the pricing of the US stock market. On the one hand you might assume that high valuations are bad because “expensive” usually implies bad. On the other hand, you could argue that high valuations simply reflect a price premium. There’s two ways to look at something like this.
klementoninvesting.substack.com) Why are market cap weighted indices hard to beat for managers? axios.com) Venture capital Why more markdowns are coming to venture capital portfolio valuations. awealthofcommonsense.com) Base effects matter when analyzing economic data. vox.com) David Rubenstein on his Bitcoin regrets.
There are a lot of factors that drive the performance of financial markets over time. Fundamentals like valuations, economic growth, earnings and dividends are the main drivers of returns over the long run. Plus you have to consider demographics, productivity and innovation.
Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation. calculatedriskblog.com) Indicators show the economic cycle is maturing, but not yet in recession.
In a nutshell: RIA valuations are high. The stock market is a great part of this model and why private equity is flowing into this space so aggressively is over time you have a 6% wind at the back of all these firms. It wasn’t just psychological complacency, it was economic complacency. Private equity is everywhere.
Weekly Market Insights | December 16th, 2024 Mixed Data, Mixed Results. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 1.48 The markets rally following the news reflected investor relief that inflation met expectations and that the increase from the prior month was slight. Retail Sales.
Also in industry news this week: The latest Social Security trustees report offered a slightly rosier picture for the health of the various Social Security trust funds thanks to improved economic conditions, though they warned that time is running out for legislators to take action to ensure the system will be able to pay out full benefits beyond the (..)
After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. The wisdom of the crowd is why the efficient markets work most of the time, but it really helps to be aware when the crowd turns into an unthinking mob of hooligans.
Weekly Market Insights | October 28th, 2024 Stocks Mixed Ahead of Election Stocks were mixed last week as fresh economic data points and election-related uncertainty slowed market momentum. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 2.30 The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.96
The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. Nvidia is not the first giant tech company to trade at a rich valuation.
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook.
marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago. spyglass.org) This is Apple's ($AAPL) brand promise.
While technology companies have enjoyed substantial momentum and appreciation in previous market cycles, the current pullback offers a timely opportunity to identify value within this dynamic sector. The key is looking beyond short-term market fluctuations to recognize companies with solid underlying fundamentals.
Weekly Market Insights | December 23rd, 2024 Powell Signal Leaves Investors Cold Stocks were under pressure last week as the Fed Chair’s hawkish comments unsettled investors ahead of the holiday season. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, retreated an eye-catching 3.38 Tuesday: Durable Goods.
Weekly Market Insights | November 11th, 2024 Stocks Surge Post-Election; Fed Cuts Quarter Point Stocks surged higher last week, fueled by the Fed’s rate cut decision and post-election enthusiasm as investors looked to future policy impacts of a Republican-controlled Senate and executive branch. Economic news that showed a 2.2
From there, we have several articles on practice management: A new report shows that RIA profitability and AUM soared in 2021, buoyed by a strong stock market and new client growth. The key considerations for advisors considering terminating a forgivable note early.
Dear Mr. Market: This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opprtunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year.
Weekly Market Insights | November 4th, 2024 Stocks Retreat on Jobs and Election Concerns Stocks slid last week as mixed economic data and strong-but-not-spectacular Q3 corporate reports failed to inspire investors. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 0.96 Factory Orders. FOMC Announcement.
Thoughts Equity markets delivered their third-straight weekly gain, continuing to exhibit remarkable resilience given continued uncertainty in the banking system, Fed policy, macro conditions, interest rates, and inflation. March saw an equity market gain for the fourth time in six months, with the S&P 500 returning 7%.
Weekly Market Insights | December 2nd, 2024 Solid Gains for Thanksgiving Week Stocks posted solid gains over a short and busy holiday week as investors parsed fresh economic data, comments on potential future trade policy, and a few Q3 reports from technology companies. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index.
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