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FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously anticipated"

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 1718, 2024. A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

Economics 273
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U.S. Markets Are Swallowing the Rest of the World

A Wealth of Common Sense

The United States is the envy of the world in terms of financial markets and economic performance. Ruchir Sharma at The Financial Times outlines how this is impacting capital flows: Global investors are committing more capital to a single country than ever before in modern history.

Marketing 145
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"Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7%"

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Briefly Over 7% Before Mid-Day Improvement Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S. Because this was one of the weakest moments for the bond market, mortgage rates were sharply higher at first.

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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 243
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Podcast links: harsh economic truths

Abnormal Returns

(infiniteloopspodcast.com) Real estate Derek Thompson talks with Mike Simonsen, president and founder of Altos Research, and Lance Lambert, cofounder and editor-in-chief of Residential Club, about the state of the American housing market. theringer.com) Julia LaRoche talks with Tyler Cowen about how AI will change society and the economy.

Economics 261
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Research links: the AI threat

Abnormal Returns

(caia.org) Looking for factor returns in old historical stock market data. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Using AI to better explain past financial market returns. nber.org) How to extract economic data from the Wall Street Journal. nber.org) How to extract economic data from the Wall Street Journal.

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10 Charts To Help Address Client Concerns On Recession Fears, Tariff Risks, And Market Volatility

Nerd's Eye View

While financial markets tend to rise in the long run, short-term volatility can be alarming for investors. Recent swings have been driven by economic policy shifts, persistent inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty – all of which may unnerve even the steadiest of clients.

Clients 205