Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2025

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 Census Bureau and the U.S. billion in November , up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion, $11.6

Economics

Calculated Risk

JUNE 15, 2025

The May statement said that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”. Given the 115pp reduction in bilateral US-China tariffs on May 12, we think a more appropriate characterization could be: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”. The March SEP was pre-“Liberation Day”. annualized.

Banking

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.

Economics

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. We have stressed that it will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty about the details , such as what will be tariffed, at what level and for what duration, and the extent of retaliation from our trading partners.

Economics

Calculated Risk

JULY 30, 2025

FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

Excerpt: In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlooks for inflation and economic activity. emphasis added

Economics

MainStreet Financial Planning

MARCH 12, 2025

Economic uncertaintywhether it’s due to market volatility, rising inflation, or potential recessionscan feel overwhelming. Here are five practical tactics to help retirees weather economic uncertainty: Take a Break from the News Constantly consuming news and social media can lead to unnecessary panic.

Economics

Wealth Management

MAY 28, 2025

Explore historical tariff impacts on markets and learn strategies for guiding clients through current trade tensions and economic uncertainties.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations.

Economics

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 report for October: Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1

Food

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2025

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post analyzing borrower trends in the mortgage market across balances, delinquency rates, credit scores, and geography. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. trillion at the end of June 2025.

Economics

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation. All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated.

Economics

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). in November, up from 3.7%

Economics

Wealth Management

JUNE 16, 2025

Kirk McDonald discusses the characteristics of successful mid-cap companies, the challenges faced by mid-cap managers, and why mid-caps might be poised for success in the current economic environment.

Investing

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve. percent rate so far this year. emphasis added

Economy

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Numbers

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 YoY in December.

Numbers

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.

Clients

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2025

The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? I didnt understand this as representing a significant threat to the established economic order. In a word, the U.S.

Taxes

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2025

Excerpt: In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally agreed that, with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately or modestly restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity.

Economics

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S.

Government

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 13, 2025

From there, we have several articles on investment planning: How interested financial advisors can evaluate different types of private investments, whose return profiles tend to be more opaque and challenging to analyze compared to publicly traded instruments Why one author sees a confluence of factors (including a relatively low cost of capital and (..)

Financial Planner

Wealth Management

JUNE 26, 2025

BlackRock's Rick Rieder discusses economic outlook and fixed income opportunities, while Vanguard's Salin Ramji highlights expansion into savings and advice at the Morningstar conference.

Investing

The Big Picture

JUNE 3, 2025

Whether it was ideology, economic innumeracy, or simply idiocy does not matter. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself. A once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put America on the soundest financial footing possible was missed.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. [Mar 7th] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report indeed indicated that elevated gold imports contributed the bulk of increase in imports in January. percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

This alliance has the potential to challenge established power structures, particularly in global economic governance. By facilitating transactions in local currencies, it promotes economic cooperation among member states. In addition, adopting a BRICS currency aligns with India’s broader economic strategy.

Economics

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

Barry likes to remind us of the great Joan Robinson quote, and its utterly appropriate here: The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists. Both the Wall St. Pay attention.

Government

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.” emphasis added This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for August, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024.

Economy

The Big Picture

JULY 17, 2025

That reduces overall consumer spending and slows overall economic growth. The problem is that tariffs act as a tax increase. Any dollar spent on tariffs is a dollar that is not spent elsewhere. For Corporate America, reductions in margins will negatively impact profits. So far, we have seen only a muted impact on the economy.

Math

Calculated Risk

JUNE 17, 2025

. • Also at 2:00 PM, FOMC Projections This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections. • At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Economics

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

After this morning's personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.8 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. percent to 3.0 Nov 27th estimate]

Economics

Wealth Management

JUNE 17, 2025

Financial advisors' confidence in the stock market increased in May, with 68% expecting improvement within a year, despite ongoing economic uncertainties due to tariffs.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 Census Bureau and the U.S. billion in September , up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion, $10.3

Economics

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. This was in sharp contrast to all the recession calls you saw in 2022 and 2023, including signals from other popular leading economic indicators.

Economics

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 YoY in January.

Numbers

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2025

Who would ever have guessed that chaotically deploying a random set of discredited economic policies for 6 months would disrupt the economy and hurt the labor market…? Listen to my conversation with Neil Dutta from July for his economic warnings of a recession late 2025/early 2026). Unemployment ticked up to 4.2% last month.

Economy