Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Wealth Management

MAY 27, 2025

The migration of lending away from regulated banks and more transparent public markets creates potential risk.

Economics 189

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 189

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 29, 2025

Podcasts Christine Benz and Dan Lefkovitz talk with John Rekenthaler about his long career writing about investing. morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff on how much money you need to retire. peterlazaroff.com) Family Every decision we make has trade-offs: the case for staying home to care for small children.

Economics 173

Economics Retirement Financial Advisor Investments 173

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 17, 2025

podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. (forbes.com) Economy Danny Crichton talks with Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber authors of the new book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." youtube.com) Stephen Dubner on the crisis facing residential real estate brokers.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Investing Investments 162

Wealth Management

MAY 28, 2025

Explore historical tariff impacts on markets and learn strategies for guiding clients through current trade tensions and economic uncertainties.

Marketing 272

Marketing Marketing Economics Clients 272

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

Excerpt: In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlooks for inflation and economic activity. emphasis added

Economics 207

Economics Government Risk Management Economy 207

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

No single asset can promise complete security, but gold has a proven track record of maintaining its value in times of economic turbulence.

Economics 277

Economics Assets 277

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 2, 2024

What is the role your charitable clients can play in the economic development of disadvantaged communities and how does the IRS view charitable activities that can support it? Join this session with Foundation Source’s Chief Legal Officer Jeffrey Has

Economics 264

Economics Clients 264

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. We have stressed that it will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty about the details , such as what will be tariffed, at what level and for what duration, and the extent of retaliation from our trading partners.

Economics 257

Economics Economy 257

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2025

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 Census Bureau and the U.S. billion in November , up $4.6 billion from $73.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $273.4 billion, $7.1 billion, $11.6

Economics 254

Economics 254

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.

Economics 262

Economics Accounting Marketing Marketing 262

Wealth Management

MAY 15, 2025

Behavioral economics can offer hope for helping clients navigate turbulent waters and stay focused on their long-term financial plan.

Economics 240

Economics Financial Planning Management Clients 240

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation. All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated.

Economics 273

Economics Accounting Financial Market Numbers 273

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). in November, up from 3.7%

Economics 272

Economics Sales Investments Investing 272

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2025

The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? I didnt understand this as representing a significant threat to the established economic order. In a word, the U.S.

Taxes 303

Taxes Economics Education Planning 303

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 YoY in December.

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

 This week, we speak with Colin Camerer , Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at California Institute of Technology. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and holds fellowship at the Econometric Society and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory.

Portfolio Management 316

Portfolio Management Economics Portfolio Assets 316

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 report for October: Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1

Food 303

Food Taxes Economics 303

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations.

Economics 309

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 309

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. As the Economist magazine observed, this is the biggest economic self-error in a century, it leads to an international realignment.

Economics 318

Economics Economy Communication Marketing 318

Wealth Management

JANUARY 14, 2025

Nonetheless, investors should focus on building portfolios that are "antifragile." "

Economics 289

Economics Portfolio 289

The Big Picture

MARCH 14, 2025

This week, I speak with Stephanie Kelton , Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Stony Brook University and Senior Fellow at the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. Senate Budget Committee, and was senior economic adviser for Bernie Sanders 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

Economics 200

Economics Budgeting Economy 200

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 2, 2024

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, November 4th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, November 5th -- All day: U.S. Election 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the deficit to be $73.5 billion in September, from $70.4 billion in August.

Economics 272

Economics 272

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $84.4 Census Bureau and the U.S. billion in September , up $13.6 billion from $70.8 billion in August, revised. September exports were $267.9 billion, $3.2 billion, $10.3

Economics 200

Economics 200

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 18, 2024

Separate lawsuits have LPL Financial and Ameriprise Financial battling over advisors leaving, claiming breach of contract and misuse of confidential client information.

Recruitment 298

Recruitment Economics Clients 298

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

statnews.com) Economy Where does economic growth come from? conversableeconomist.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (advisorperspectives.com) In many states a rape exception is no help at all. npr.org) How the alcohol lobby has kept higher taxes at bay. awealthofcommonsense.com) R&D spending in the U.S. is booming.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 293

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

Excerpts: The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020, and our review will reflect our assessment of those changes. Many estimates of the longer-run level of the policy rate have risen , including those in the Summary of Economic Projections. From Fed Chair Powell: Opening Remarks.

Economics 147

Economics Banking Economy 147

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S.

Government 257

Government Food Economics Investing 257

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.

Economy 222

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 222

Calculated Risk

APRIL 22, 2025

At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

Sales 261

Sales Banking Economics 261

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve. percent rate so far this year. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

Barry likes to remind us of the great Joan Robinson quote, and its utterly appropriate here: The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists. Both the Wall St. Pay attention.

Government 310

Government Investing Investments Economy 310

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

 This week, we speak with New York Times Global Economic Correspondent Peter Goodman. Prior to the New York Times, Peter began his career as a freelance writer in Southeast Asia before serving as The Washington Post’s Asia Economic Correspondent and later Shanghai Bureau Chief.

Economics 189

Economics Management 189

Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2025

30 year fixed 6.99% ] emphasis added Tuesday: No major economic releases scheduled. After that, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved just barely back below 7.0%--still higher than Friday, but much more in line with last week's range. [

Financial Market 191

Financial Market Economics Marketing Marketing 191

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. [Mar 7th] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report indeed indicated that elevated gold imports contributed the bulk of increase in imports in January. percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics 179

Economics Management Investments Investing 179