The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

1 This is significant for two reasons: First, it is a full 5 million more people working today than in January 2020, just before the pandemic struck. That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264

Numbers Retirement Economy Accounting 264

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 204

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 204

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

From housing economist Tom Lawler: From the beginning of 2020 to early June of 2022 the Federal Reserves balance sheet more than doubled to an almost inconceivable $8.9 trillion) Agency MBS portfolio with an estimate weighted average life of 8 - 9 years to just slowly roll off adds even more to this private-sector maturity transformation.

Assets 165

Assets Portfolio Accounting Marketing 165

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 17, 2025

WAAV seems Permanent Portfolio inspired which is why I threw in AQRIX and PRPFX along with VBAIX as a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio makes sense as a benchmark. Both the ACWI and SPY versions outperformed AQRIX which is sort of a risk parity fund and PRPFX which is the Permanent Portfolio. The results are a mixed bag.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Taxes Numbers 52

Calculated Risk

JULY 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.23% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.23% as of June 30, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 162

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 28, 2024

Bonds with duration are now more volatile than they used to be and that volatility is less reliable than it used to be making them a less effective diversifier for the equity portion of a diversified portfolio. Where Portfolio 3 should zero out, it's pretty close to doing just that.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Retirement Retirement Planning Assets 52

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 16, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.31% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.33% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.31% as of September 30, 2023.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Numbers Insurance Planning 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 20, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains at 0.22% in April he Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of April 30, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Planning Marketing 162

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Jim Bianco, Chief Strategist at Bianco Research, and His firm has been providing objective and unconventional research and commentary to portfolio managers since 1990, and it is top rated amongst institutional traders. It’s a state program.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.34% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.34% as of September 30, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Government 162

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 162

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 25, 2025

NEPC posted a short paper about how to choose the right alternatives to diversify a 60/40 portfolio. Investors can count on a broad array of strategies to incorporate diversification into their portfolios. They also help stabilize the portfolio over the long term and improve risk-adjusted returns.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Management Clients Investing 59

The Big Picture

JANUARY 24, 2024

After-tax equity returns from your non-tax-exempt portfolios. To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Ari Rosenbaum of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, now a division of investing giant Franklin Templeton. So we, for practical purposes, remove those from the portfolio.

Taxes 246

Taxes Portfolio Wealth Management Accounting 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.31% in August The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.31% as of August 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Planning Numbers Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of February 29, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Planning Taxes Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.22% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 0.23% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.22% as of January 31, 2024.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Planning Numbers Economics 162

The Big Picture

JUNE 21, 2023

Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. of publicly traded companies that put up those giant performance numbers over an extended period of time. A portfolio of passive low-cost indexes should make up the core of your holdings. John Neff, Julian Robertson, and Will Danoff round out the list.

Management 312

Management Investing Investments Numbers 312

Calculated Risk

APRIL 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains at 0.22% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of March 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Numbers 147

Numbers Planning Portfolio Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 24, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.21% in May The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance declined slightly to 0.21% as of May 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Numbers 130

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 21, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.39% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from 0.44% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.39% as of July 31, 2023.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Retirement Numbers 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

The Trinity Replication captures some of the effect of the market longer term, maybe enough, maybe not enough, you can look at the other post to get more numbers, but that is what real diversification looks like. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Accounting Clients Marketing 93

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Here's CWB compared to a couple of other funds we've looked at recently as possible game over funds and Vanguard Balanced Income Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. In terms of numbers comparing CWB, PUTW and VAMO; Same stats for the S&P 500 and VBAIX. The best year for CWB which was in 2020 skews the CAGR to 9.82

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Numbers Clients Management 75

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

We will say this about the election — we could see some market volatility this week, although the extra days it took to determine the winner in 2020 actually saw market strength. However, this shouldn’t be a big surprise because we knew Hurricanes Milton and Helene would weigh on the numbers. But those numbers are backward looking.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

The Big Picture

AUGUST 24, 2024

New York Times ) • Politics and your portfolio: How the election could impact your money : Politics don’t matter for your portfolio if you’re one of many people investing to build wealth over a long period of time. Thje $7 billion fund has been putting up impressive numbers since it was launched in 1999.

Medical 173

Medical Portfolio Retail Media 173

Calculated Risk

JULY 17, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.44% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from [0.49%] of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to [0.44%] as of June 30, 2023.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Numbers 130

The Big Picture

APRIL 29, 2025

Their focus is on generating alpha with high conviction concentrated portfolios. As you, as you may recall, the insurance companies had huge commercial loan portfolios in those days that they were using to backstop long dated life insurance liabilities. Jenison launched way back in 1969 as a growth equity shop.

Management 130

Management Assets Portfolio Insurance 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 17, 2024

Closed end funds (CEF) have a fixed* number of shares. They have a net asset value (NAV) per share but because the number of shares is fixed, the market price that closed end funds trade at can vary significantly from the NAV. Portfolio 3 is 50/50 S&P 500/managed futures and the benchmark is Vanguard Balanced Index.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Asset Allocation Management 52

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

TRANSCRIPT: War in the Ukraine and the Middle East, inflation spikes in 2020 and 21, what is the financial impact of global conflict and rising prices? I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At the Money, we’re gonna discuss whether war and inflation 20 somehow adds up to higher portfolio prices. Either way].

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

Fortune Financial

OCTOBER 14, 2024

It has been my experience when reviewing portfolios that diversification is typically expressed simply as a number of various stocks owned, or owning a handful of asset classes, usually stocks of various sizes and geographies, and bonds of varying maturities.

Asset Allocation 131

Asset Allocation Government Portfolio Financial Advisor 131

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Torsten Slok blogged about how ineffective bonds have been in terms of providing any return or diversification benefits lately in the context of a 60/40 portfolio. The third portfolio is just the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Despite all the leverage, Portfolio 1 has a very smooth ride including up a lot in 2022.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Assets Management 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

This is why having a globally diversified portfolio can benefit US-centric investors, as the US won’t always lead. Since 1980, only 2020 would be better than 2025 so far. Other years that saw big returns after down days were 2003, 2008, 2009, 2020, and of course now. It fell 20.5% The best single day ever was a 15.3%

Economics 69

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 69

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 28, 2024

When they talked about portfolio allocations he said they want to have enough in managed futures to have an impact on the portfolio. He pegged that number at 25% or 33% but conceded even 5-10% could help. Portfolio 1 as follows Portfolio 2 is 50% VOO and 50% iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF). versus 0.24

Risk Management 52

Risk Management Management Portfolio Numbers 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 9, 2025

A portfolio strategy that goes narrower than a couple of broad based index funds probably has some exposure to dividend stocks already so the decision about whether to make any changes can be moot, you already have some exposure. To be clear, Portfolio 3 does use the portable alpha approach, it is leveraged by 40%.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Insurance Taxes 52

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Austin Goolsbee. The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. I think number one. Inflation as a driver of returns. It’s a very noisy series.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 12, 2022

We are receiving many inbound telephone calls that we were not receiving previously, whether it's from owners of small portfolios or even national homebuilders with excess inventory. “With respect to other acquisition channels, it is a very interesting time. You can read the transcript of the AMH earnings conference call here.

Numbers 130

Numbers Portfolio Investing Investments 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2024

That leads to a Tweet from Krishna Memani who worked at Oppenheimer for a long time and who has been running the Endowment at Lafayette College since 2020. This brings us to the heart of today's post about trying to build a set but don't completely forget portfolio. In the models below, every back test has a 5% weighting to BTAL.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Clients Management Asset Allocation 52