Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

Excerpts: The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020, and our review will reflect our assessment of those changes. Many estimates of the longer-run level of the policy rate have risen , including those in the Summary of Economic Projections. From Fed Chair Powell: Opening Remarks.

Economics 147

Economics Economy Banking 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. Demand conditions worsened as the fourth quarter progressed, with new orders across the private sector falling in November at the fastest pace since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales 165

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 165

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. in February 2020)? "My 1) Question #1 for 2022: How much will the economy grow in 2022? "My

Economics 285

Economics Sales Economy Banking 285

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

Since 1980, only 2020 would be better than 2025 so far. Other years that saw big returns after down days were 2003, 2008, 2009, 2020, and of course now. The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. It fell 20.5% gain on March 15, 1933.

Economics 69

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 69

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI at 49% March 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March after two consecutive months of expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 127

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 127

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 17, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8.

Economics 127

Economics Economy 127

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

February 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% percent , 6.5

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22.

Economy 327

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 327

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

April 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the second month in a row , following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent, 1.7

Manufacturing 127

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 127

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Or will the economy lose jobs? "My Through November the economy has added 2.55 range in 2023.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

Home purchase applications continued to be held down by rapidly drying up demand, as high mortgage rates, challenging affordability, and a gloomier outlook of the economy kept buyers on the sidelines,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

Economy 348

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 348

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 22, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 21st straight month in December as the LEI continues to signal underlying weakness in the U.S. the index's lowest reading since May 2020. The index inched down 0.1% from last month to 103.1,

Economics 133

Economics Economy 133

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% November 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. percent is a 0.8-percentage

Manufacturing 263

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 263

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2025

Echo Beach ) Why Japan Succeeds Despite Stagnation : For more than three decades, Japan has endured near-complete economic stagnation. The charismatic and colourful Mr Ma, who was one of China’s most prominent businessmen, had withdrawn from public life after criticising China’s financial sector in 2020.

Transportation 159

Transportation Economics Media Investing 159

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 327

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 327

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 293

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 293

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. (nytimes.com) How to get free online access to the updated version of "Poor Charlie's Almanack."

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 261

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 1, 2023

(theatlantic.com) Policy Per the IRS, nearly 1,000 tax filers who earn more than $1 million per year have still not filed federal tax returns for at least one year from 2017 to 2020. economist.com) Economy Q3 GDP tracking around 3%. stlouisfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 294

Financial Advising Taxes Media Government 294

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking. She has been CEO February 2020. Stay invested.

Economy 271

Economy Distribution Clients Investing 271

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 159

Economy Economics Food Banking 159

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? 2020 threw a wrench in everything. Things are very weird right now.

License 287

License Economics Banking Economy 287

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020). BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 Nominal GDP is plus 7.8%

Government 296

Government Economy Economics Marketing 296

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

March 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.2 percent in December, the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 The employment index decreased to 51.3%, from 54.0%. The Business Activity Index registered 55.4

Economy 253

Economy Management Economics 253

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2022

August 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in August, with the overall economy achieving a 27th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 54.2%, up from 49.9% percent , 3.3

Manufacturing 188

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 188