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Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. in 2024 (around 2.6% Q4-over-Q4). Q4-over-Q4).

Economy 173
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298
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Top 0.1%: How Much Wealth Does It Take?

The Big Picture

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. No, Your iPhone Does Not Make You Wealthy (June 4, 2018). We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting.

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The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336
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Market Commentary: S&P 500 Approaching All-Time High but US Economic Momentum Slowing

Carson Wealth

General Electric was the most recent of the 12 to be included, but was it removed October 2018. US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. But the economy avoided a recession back then too.

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Countertrend ?

The Big Picture

This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. Bull Markets & P/E Multiple Expansion (June 22, 2018). Bull Markets Can’t Start Until Bear Markets End (March 9, 2018). Previously : End of the Secular Bull? Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 328