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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp.,

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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Previously : Don’t Blame Morningstar for Our Own Shortcomings (October 26, 2017). Dangerous for economy.

Taxes 334
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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. If you believed these stories, and acted on them, your portfolio probably did poorly in markets over this era. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The creator economy, as it’s known, is now a global industry valued at $250 billion, with tens of millions of workers, hundreds of millions of customers and its own trade association and work-credentialing programs. But Adidas had been tolerating his misconduct behind the scenes for nearly a decade. ( Here on Earth, there was a 1.7

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Market Timing vs. Time in the Market

Zoe Financial

Looking at the same 1950-2017 period, but looking through the lens of five-year investment horizons, returns for the S&P 500 ranged from down 3% to up 28%. Economies and markets fluctuate. But if you use the time to your advantage, market volatility starts to wash out.

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Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Gets the “Good News Is Bad News” Treatment

Carson Wealth

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

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Market Commentary: Seasonal Tailwinds Ahead, but First an Election

Carson Wealth

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. The 2017-2019 pace was 3.1%.) on average, well above the 7.1%